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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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That's the way to quickly grow your portfolio for the smart investor and eventually rebalance back on TSLA ;-)
No worries. I set up my portfolios last week to have 80% TSLA and 20% solar. But over the last 3 trading days I started noticing a trend where I would find a very cheap solar opportunity and would go looking at my account trying to raise capital to buy some. Then I would end up selling some TSLA to buy JASO for example.
I did this for a few days in a row, and today I finally realized that I don't want any TSLA exposure because I want to have all of my capital in solar right now.
I may be dead wrong on solar, but that is a chance I am willing to take. But if I am right then putting capital in TSLA would be a waste of money, hence I sold off all my TSLA options today to buy some cheap JASO options.
If you think that the world doesn't understand Tesla, then you have no idea how little the world knows about solar. The other day I talked to a CFO of a utility and he had the same talking points that solar is expensive, couldn't survive without subsidies, etc. That only reinforced my investment decision. Sooner or later solar will have to go up a lot more than it already has to start trading on fundamentals, because right now it is simply cheap.
I really encourage you guys to start reading about solar as religiously as you do about Tesla and you might be surprised in what you find.
I have 79 equity positions in my investment portfolio - all but an insignificant fraction in common stocks; no derivatives; no shorts. That's a reduction in names over the past year, by the way, of about 33%, as unconsolidated a jumper of portfolios.
By the way, without giving out my age, I am well into my fourth decade of active investing...
As i have written here before, the largest single posiion I ever have established, in $ terms and almost the largest in absolute percentage, at about 8% at inception, is TSLA.
Even after shaving down that position to take out the cash to buy the P85, and pay for the s-t cap gains tax, as of today TSLA account for about 15% of my portfolio. That represents an awkwardly large position - one that is immems smaller than the "all in" forum members, but one that has, this year, both allowed me both to sleep at nights and achieve outsized portfolio performance.
Good luck with all your shooting the moon - "get rich slowly" always, though, will be the long-term, fewe-tears-shed strategy.
By the way, without giving out my age, I am well into my fourth decade of active investing...
As i have written here before, the largest single posiion I ever have established, in $ terms and almost the largest in absolute percentage, at about 8% at inception, is TSLA.
Even after shaving down that position to take out the cash to buy the P85, and pay for the s-t cap gains tax, as of today TSLA account for about 15% of my portfolio. That represents an awkwardly large position - one that is immems smaller than the "all in" forum members, but one that has, this year, both allowed me both to sleep at nights and achieve outsized portfolio performance.
Good luck with all your shooting the moon - "get rich slowly" always, though, will be the long-term, fewe-tears-shed strategy.
Sleepy,
I'm sure I don't know as much about solar as you, but my apprehension is that costs will continue to plummet and the manufacturers will just crush each other on margins as they all race to the bottom. That's why I think companies like SCTY might be the better play. Thoughts?
Yes, I am trying to make a quick buck on solar and then allocate some of those potential profits into Tesla to diversify more. I will not go back into TSLA again until my solars start trading on fundamentals, but they still have a long way to go.
The way I see solar growing, I just can't believe that the market doesn't see this coming. Either this will turn out to be the easiest money I ever made or it will be the biggest mistake.
I side with the former, because I have been buying SPWR for $7 all the way down to $3.90 for over 8 months before Wall St. figured it out. I kept buying more shares with every paycheck, because I knew that SPWR was grossly undervalued and that the future is looking really good for them. I kept praying that the stock continues going down so I can buy more. Eventually the market figured it out and the stock doubled in just over a week. I was actually sad when this happened because the cheap buying party was over for me.
I feel the same way about the Chinese solar players. Even though CSIQ has been a 10-bagger in under 12 months, it is still grossly undervalued. The party for Chinese solars is just getting started. Last quarter there was finally one company JKS that went profitable. This quarter it will be CSIQ and JKS for sure, and both might be very profitable. Maybe TSL and SOL join them with a profit this quarter.
If all of a sudden 3 or 4 companies turn profitable and the others significantly cut their losses then Wall St. might finally wake up to solar.
The reason that solar is undervalued is because only a handful of no-name analysts follow the companies, and all of them are so wrong in their estimates that they should lose their jobs. Just look at finance.yahoo.com and see how analyst consensus has been changing for these companies in the past:
SOL for example had a consensus loss of $(1.50) just 3 months ago for 2014, and now the consensus is showing a $0.11 profit. The sad part is that the $0.11 will turn out to be way off as well.
That is why I like solar right now. Please do some research and look into it.
I like TSLA a lot as a long term investment and I will definitely get back into it with a good chunk of my money. But right now I am focused on short term and like my odds elsewhere.
Sorry for going off topic. If you have questions we can take it to the solar thread.
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InTheShadows
Active Member
I'm not sure about your thoughts but I know this. I am in the solar industry and solar panel prices have bottomed in q4 2012. Each quarter since then I have received price increases. Also costs to manufacture continue to go down. China is extremely aggressive in solar and will likely dethrone Germany within 3 years as the global leader. Oops I forgot to mention India.
Keep your ears open next week for news. SPI, the largest solar conference is next week. I will be shocked if new technologies are not announced. I am in the process of shifting from 20:80 solar to tsla to 50:50. Some companies have a 6 month lead time. And you thought waiting 2 months for a Model S was bad.
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Please see the alt energy thread for more info.
I'm pretty much in the same boat as you, college aged and made all my money from TSLA. Im "all in" right now because I feel the next few days we could see it climb to 190-200 and obviously I want to capitalize on it. I have no problem risking everything. If I do loose it all, It would still be a learning experience and a story to tell. Its a win-win in my eyes.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I think it's a mistake to compare a company's success to a sector's success. After all, if you thought the EVs were the way to go last year, would you have invested in Coda, Fisker, Nissan, and Tesla? If so, you'd be 1 out of 4. Saying solar as a sector is going to be successful isn't going to make you money. Which solar companies, and why, will have 5X gains in 1-2 years? As investors in companies like First Solar, SunPower, etc. know, being right about a sector can lead to large losses on a company.
The only mistake is the one that the market is making with the entire solar sector. You didn't even have to pick any particular company to make it big. From their 52 week lows you have:
SPWR 8 bagger
SOL 5 bagger
TSL 8 bagger
YGE 7 bagger
CSIQ 11 bagger
JKS 11 bagger (just over 52 weeks)
JASO 3 bagger
etc.
The whole sector is undervalued. No matter who you pick will do ok, some better than others. JASO and SOL right now are the most undervalued. CSIQ and JKS are going to have the best financial results. SPWR is the best company. They are all going up in the future and are only getting started. Industry conditions are improving every day and everyone will benefit.
I am not trying to convince you guys to invest in solar, I just want to encourage you guys to do some research on this topic.
Absolutely. I am enthusiastic about TSLA and SPWR if I were to choose two disruptive better run companies from these two sectors. Everyone's risk tolerance and account balances are different hence strategies will vary. I am still majority in TSLA for now.
Its nice to hear from others in a similar situation.
I'm in my 20s and hold 60-40 in TSLA and solar. Together, my portfolio is well over 100% of my net worth by use of margin and loans. At my age, I can tolerate risk and this is a chance to change my life. In fact, it already has to a certain degree.
While I'm confident in solar I'm not nearly as knowledgeable of it as I am of Tesla. I don't want to mess up a sure thing so this allocation is perfect for me.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I agree with smorgasbord. My view on the solar sector is that it will play out just like the airlines and as speculators, it is not possible to know who will end up surviving and because I focus on investing in CEOs I believe in, I do not have time to analyze and pick a ceo in the solar sector. In any event, TSLA is partially considered as a green energy play. If it does not correlate well with the solars, it will eventually as a battery provider for solar panels. With tesla, you get the only player in the BEV sector.
Gtoffo
Member
Guys....we have an alternative energy investor topic for a reason....
Soooo.....will TSLA close above 185$ tomorrow....that's what I need to understand :-D
I can only imagine the stock going up right now... but it didn't follow the markets yesterday and today it looks like it's slightly down in Pre market.
Soooo.....will TSLA close above 185$ tomorrow....that's what I need to understand :-D
I can only imagine the stock going up right now... but it didn't follow the markets yesterday and today it looks like it's slightly down in Pre market.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well right now TSLA has slightly recovered (really slightly) now the bracket is $184 - $185 so in the green. I do hope that the overall state is positive and it'll go above $185 today.
Gtoffo
Member
I basically need the stock to go up by 1% within the next two days for my options to turn a profit :-D (damn short term speculations). At this point I consider the price movement in the next two days basically the result of a random function. But given the general market sentiment and TSLA's usual volatility my odds should be at least a bit higher than 50%. I'll stick to counting cards at blackjack next time :-D
The eternal dilemma is: sell if I get a chance today, or hold on until expiry and see if I get lucky(er)?
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I have my weekly $185's with half of the position already with a limit order that eliminates them with 0 loss, 0 gain. The other four I will look what do today and possibly reduce to a quarter going to tomorrow, but will only keep any if TSLA is priced anywhere near $186 end of day.
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