MartinAustin
Active Member
I know what you mean. Hard to say when the bottom will come... perhaps Icahn will jump in? (had that idea when someone mentioned the Netflix fall)
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I know what you mean. Hard to say when the bottom will come... perhaps Icahn will jump in? (had that idea when someone mentioned the Netflix fall)
It's not about reality any more, it's about perception. We know the facts because of how close we follow Tesla. As I mentioned last night, we're all puny investors against an entire market that is much larger than all of us combined.
Krugerrand
Meow
Entirely unfair comment. What do you need him to say, in this very moment, to make you comfortable? 'Please stop being irrational, hating on my company and selling TSLA'? There's no one working harder at trying to change the world for our benefit and you're bothered because he's not done an interview to say the obvious?
Tell you what, when you start a company with the goal to turn a 100 year old established industry upside down in only 20 years, I promise to be hypercritical of everything you say and do AND everything you don't say and do.
Since the common theme this morning is perception, how do you think the public at large and the market will digest this especially when the average person only reads the headlines and the word "fire" is in it?
This reminds me of Apple at $700. They had one of the best quarters in their history (or anyone's history for that matter), but couldn't meet investor's crazy high expectations. I knew Apple's fundamentals were still amazing and that they were still one of the best run businesses in the world. So I kept catching the falling knife at $630, $550, $500, $450, etc... The stock fell below $375 after months of decline and has finally recovered somewhat to $520ish after a year.
My point is that we are a little too close to Tesla. We may be correct about its future: a once in a century disruptive company with a great moat. However, the average investors may not believe in that yet. All they see is cnbc headlines such as, "Tesla beats own guidance, but falls short of expectations", and low price targets from major analysts. The sentiment has turned on us. Once that happens, watch out, I don't know how far this can fall.
I believe the stock will hit 200+ someday, but that could be next spring or after gen 3 is announced. I've lost a lot of money this week, and feel everyone's pain. Good luck everyone.
My point is that we are a little too close to Tesla. We may be correct about its future: a once in a century disruptive company with a great moat. However, the average investors may not believe in that yet. All they see is cnbc headlines such as, "Tesla beats own guidance, but falls short of expectations", and low price targets from major analysts. The sentiment has turned on us. Once that happens, watch out, I don't know how far this can fall.
I believe the stock will hit 200+ someday, but that could be next spring or after gen 3 is announced. I've lost a lot of money this week, and feel everyone's pain. Good luck everyone.
In the middle of all of this, I've been looking at the chart for TSLA.
Obviously, technicals and trends are broken. We'll need this to see how this develops but it looks like we're in for a serious downtrend for a few months.
Also, be on the lookout for run ups after the steep decline since Tuesday, I can see a possible bear flag developing from it in the down channel.
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I was there with you. I bought AAPL at 400 then it ran all the way up to 700. Like you said, despite having a stellar quarter, expectations were too high and AAPL came crashing down. I talked with fellow investors and was advised to hold over and over as the price kept tanking. Well I held and I came out licking my wounds. So when ever I see a run up like this, I just think back to my experience with AAPL and tell myself that I hate being AAPL'd and that I need to make the necessary but painful defensive plays.
Obviously, technicals and trends are broken. We'll need this to see how this develops but it looks like we're in for a serious downtrend for a few months.
Also, be on the lookout for run ups after the steep decline since Tuesday, I can see a possible bear flag developing from it in the down channel.
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I was there with you. I bought AAPL at 400 then it ran all the way up to 700. Like you said, despite having a stellar quarter, expectations were too high and AAPL came crashing down. I talked with fellow investors and was advised to hold over and over as the price kept tanking. Well I held and I came out licking my wounds. So when ever I see a run up like this, I just think back to my experience with AAPL and tell myself that I hate being AAPL'd and that I need to make the necessary but painful defensive plays.
I agree, Spacekadet. I'm a first-time poster but long-time lurker. I've learned a lot from you guys and I agree with long-term sentiment. But since this is a forum for short-term price movements, everything points to short term further losses:
1) We still have fallout from the earnings report as retail investors slowly let the news sink and and decide what to do.
2) Now the fire, which if you'll recall the first time it happened, completely reversed an otherwise bullish momentum and led to a $10-15 drop. Now, the fire is coming on top of underlying bearish momentum.
3) The shorts will be unleashed again at the end of today's trading day.
4) If you look at news reports over the last 24 hrs, everything about TSLA is negative. This affects retail investors' perceptions, even if the reality is different.
The only bullish sentiment, ironically, is from analysts who have been raising their targets slightly since the truth is that tesla had a very good 3rd quarter, even if it didn't achieve the blowout that everyone expected.
In the short term, I think this means the stock has tremendous downside potential (again, in the short term). With no real prospects for short-term bullish news. Personally, I've cut my losses and got out (except for a small options position), and I'm waiting to get back in once the dust settles. Even if I can only get back in at a higher price (say 160), I'll at least sleep better the next few nights as this volatility works itself out
I'd love to hear from anyone who thinks the next week or two may be bullish... (and I don't mean that sarcastically)
Nissan LEAF has several times as many vehicles on the road worldwide, yet there's not a single report of a battery fire. Statistically that seems significant. There may be an issue there that Tesla may need to address. It may not be a simple fix but a core design issue. They don't have other models to rely on for income. If a major flaw is found in the Model S thats the one egg in the basket.
Elon tried to lower the stock price, but he may get more than he bargained for. It may be in his best interests to try and support the stock a little over the next couple of days. An extended free fall could tarnish Tesla's image.
I'll admit I'm freaking out a little at dropping over $50 from its high, and I haven't seen any signs of capitulation yet. This is with the market hitting new all time highs.
Elon tried to lower the stock price, but he may get more than he bargained for. It may be in his best interests to try and support the stock a little over the next couple of days. An extended free fall could tarnish Tesla's image.
I'll admit I'm freaking out a little at dropping over $50 from its high, and I haven't seen any signs of capitulation yet. This is with the market hitting new all time highs.
I agree, Spacekadet. I'm a first-time poster but long-time lurker. I've learned a lot from you guys and I agree with long-term sentiment. But since this is a forum for short-term price movements, everything points to short term further losses:
1) We still have fallout from the earnings report as retail investors slowly let the news sink and and decide what to do.
2) Now the fire, which if you'll recall the first time it happened, completely reversed an otherwise bullish momentum and led to a $10-15 drop. Now, the fire is coming on top of underlying bearish momentum.
3) The shorts will be unleashed again at the end of today's trading day.
4) If you look at news reports over the last 24 hrs, everything about TSLA is negative. This affects retail investors' perceptions, even if the reality is different.
The only bullish sentiment, ironically, is from analysts who have been raising their targets slightly since the truth is that tesla had a very good 3rd quarter, even if it didn't achieve the blowout that everyone expected.
In the short term, I think this means the stock has tremendous downside potential (again, in the short term). With no real prospects for short-term bullish news. Personally, I've cut my losses and got out (except for a small options position), and I'm waiting to get back in once the dust settles. Even if I can only get back in at a higher price (say 160), I'll at least sleep better the next few nights as this volatility works itself out
I'd love to hear from anyone who thinks the next week or two may be bullish... (and I don't mean that sarcastically)
Welcome to the forum wallaby!
I think everyone here is as bullish as the next person about Tesla Motors the company. However, TSLA has become a different story all together.
I agree with you about getting back in at some point even if it might be at a higher price from our recent exits. My reasoning is that way we may be past all the volatility and we'll have a clearer idea of which direction the stock can go, hopefully up.
As for the next couple weeks.... The volatility far from over and we're in a huge downtrend. Just beware of any kind of short term run up because like I said earlier, it may develop into a bear flag because of the downward channel.
We'd need a pretty exceptional piece of good news, like a buy in from someone like Icahn.
But I don't think anyone should underestimate how many investors and speculators are still on the upwards pushing side of this stock. They're the whole reason the stock is still meeting downward resistance at 140, even though the momentum machine has clearly been broken.
You can't realistically hope for a big gain without accepting the risk of a big hit.
That being said, if Tesla can regain its footing and climb back up to 190, the short sellers will really get throttled.
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I'm as bullish as anyone on tesla long term, but I sold everything immediately after seeing the reporting of the fire. I knew what the last fire did to the stock and this is coming on top of the ER that everyone but those that truly understand tesla thought was a disappointment. I will be buying a tesla, but if someone like me who is extremely bullish on the car and the company thinks there may be an issue with the design, I know the general public is definitely going to think that. I think it's not an end of the world type problem, just need more protection underneath. Just one non engineer's opinion, I'll let Elon figure it out. In the mean time, I'll be buying TSLA on sale when the time is right.
I looked (just google) for anything about LEAF battery fires and couldn't find one. Not sure how one would find a definitive report, but yea, that disparity between the LEAF and Tesla gives me pause.
Need to keep saying this guys:
Automaker with ultimately cool new vehicle technology and new era-defining transport system that lacks any visible or probable sign of competition on the 5 year+ time horizon rampaging across the globe without need for additional investment - Instead actually adding cash to its bank account at the same time owing to disruptive business model that shatters the 'capital intensive' constraint thought to have been the defining barrier to entry into the mass market auto industry.
Tesla strains suppliers to the limit as customer lines lengthen in the US and around the globe - OK for 2014, but threatens to build giant cell manufacturing plant with partners if supplers cannot guarantee to keep up with 500,000 vehicle production target on near horizon.
Terrified bears spewing nonsensical FUD.
Who in their right mind is buying what the bears are selling?
Automaker with ultimately cool new vehicle technology and new era-defining transport system that lacks any visible or probable sign of competition on the 5 year+ time horizon rampaging across the globe without need for additional investment - Instead actually adding cash to its bank account at the same time owing to disruptive business model that shatters the 'capital intensive' constraint thought to have been the defining barrier to entry into the mass market auto industry.
Tesla strains suppliers to the limit as customer lines lengthen in the US and around the globe - OK for 2014, but threatens to build giant cell manufacturing plant with partners if supplers cannot guarantee to keep up with 500,000 vehicle production target on near horizon.
Terrified bears spewing nonsensical FUD.
Who in their right mind is buying what the bears are selling?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Did you sell? In that case you "lost". If not you have neither lost nor gained. That's important to keep in mind.
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TMC running really slow today. One number I've been keeping an eye on is the "most users ever online" number for the forum here. It had been at ~2900 since sept 23 until today, we hit almost 4900. The ER didn't bring that much attention and worry, but this fire seems to have done so. I think this number has been a pretty good gauge of tesla sentiment, it consistently kept increasing until the September number.
LEAF's aren't performance cars that are designed to go at the same speeds as an ICE vehicle. If they were and if the battery were on the underside of it, this very thing might just happen.
As far as the stock price goes, here's the chart for NFLX. They came back from a crash as well.
I agree, Spacekadet. I'm a first-time poster but long-time lurker. I've learned a lot from you guys and I agree with long-term sentiment. But since this is a forum for short-term price movements, everything points to short term further losses:
1) We still have fallout from the earnings report as retail investors slowly let the news sink and and decide what to do.
2) Now the fire, which if you'll recall the first time it happened, completely reversed an otherwise bullish momentum and led to a $10-15 drop. Now, the fire is coming on top of underlying bearish momentum.
3) The shorts will be unleashed again at the end of today's trading day.
4) If you look at news reports over the last 24 hrs, everything about TSLA is negative. This affects retail investors' perceptions, even if the reality is different.
The only bullish sentiment, ironically, is from analysts who have been raising their targets slightly since the truth is that tesla had a very good 3rd quarter, even if it didn't achieve the blowout that everyone expected.
In the short term, I think this means the stock has tremendous downside potential (again, in the short term). With no real prospects for short-term bullish news. Personally, I've cut my losses and got out (except for a small options position), and I'm waiting to get back in once the dust settles. Even if I can only get back in at a higher price (say 160), I'll at least sleep better the next few nights as this volatility works itself out
I'd love to hear from anyone who thinks the next week or two may be bullish... (and I don't mean that sarcastically)
I agree with this. Very bullish long term, with a gut-feeling short term will be very rocky, and mostly downhill. I do not see support holding in the 140's. The stock has just gone up too fast, to not fall fast when catalysts appear. I imagine big-auto pushing for investigations into the fire's as well, and if that happens, I fear more headlines. Over the next couple of weeks, I see real probability of people who have made profit exiting. This includes larger institutions as the up-side potential seems so small over the short-term, compared to real risk. What will happen to the stock if a recall happens? I see the stock settling down in the low 120's over the next three weeks. If Tesla comes out and can definitely explain away this fire, like they did the first, the stock may hold in the high 130's. If another fire happens....
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