Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Curt Renz said:
A Golden Ratio (Fibonacci) retracement to a price that is 61.8034% of a record high often marks the bottom of a retracement, as noted in the book I wrote on technical analysis for McGraw-Hill. Of course I am far from alone in realizing that. The intra-day TSLA high price on September 30 was $194.50 and the close was $193.37. The theoretical Golden Ratio lows based on those prices would be $120.21 and $ 119.51. The intra-day low today was $119.61 and the close was $121.58.

Curt, a big THANK YOU for sharing this piece of information on Nov 18 when we were trying to gauge where the bottom might lie. The ratio couldn't have hit that nail on the head much more squarely!
 
Last edited:
**EDIT2: Remember I used to talk about how TSLA's stock price mirrors my life events? Well, the stock started to drop when I had to shut down my corp. But today, something really wonderful happened as some sort of conclusion to the corp. Won't know for sure until December or next year though. Either outcome. It is going to be another life changing event to the upside.

Based on today's performance (and the after-hours move) it seems like you are right about the link!
 
She's moving again...broke $130 and climbing. Curt's Fibonacci retracement seems to have been the near-term bottom. Will be interesting to see how the stock responds to the next bit of negative news. If the reaction is more muted, we might be breaking out again.

Is this continued movement in reaction to the Dan Galves DB $200 PT, is it a Turkey-day check my stock portfolio bounce, or is there something else?
 
She's moving again...broke $130 and climbing. Curt's Fibonacci retracement seems to have been the near-term bottom. Will be interesting to see how the stock responds to the next bit of negative news. If the reaction is more muted, we might be breaking out again.

Is this continued movement in reaction to the Dan Galves DB $200 PT, is it a Turkey-day check my stock portfolio bounce, or is there something else?

We are definitely picking up steam. I remain cautious but optimistic. I'm 80% in at this point. 20% remains in cash just in case we have another last minute buy opportunity.

The sentiment has shifted again. Possible short-term surprises now would be another fire, or a bad call by the NHTSA.
The majority of the market doesn't expect anything major to come out of the NHTSA ruling at this point. High expectations are dangerous (as we have learned with Q3) so place your bets accordingly.
 
My TSLA money is 100% deployed now, no longer sitting on the sidelines. Since we are $12 off the bottom, I can say with decent confidence that the drop from $194 due to the two fires and ER is over.

However that doesn't mean we won't have other oscillations. I'm just of the opinion that we have bounced off the low and won't go back that far down any more, since in addition to the ever-increasing demand from retail investors who have bought the car, we're actually scheduled for a lot of good news through this year. (Model X reveal, batteries flowing from Panasonic, maybe a Generation 3 tease, and of course, increased Model S production) Battery factory announcement would be icing.

Well-written bullish article (long term stuff, though)
Why my money's on Tesla, despite the stock's volatility - The Globe and Mail
 
FUD of the day

Ashton Kutcher buys a Model S and tweeted in Steve Jobs voice to his 15 milion fans:"This is the future"
Law offices of Herbert F Samwhat names GM, F and Chrysler in class action lawsuit for destroying shareholder value and sleeping with the government.
Gen 3 has a transformer mode for fuel efficient highway racing and will remain in robot form when in city.
Tesla to take orders in Bitcoin
GS upgrades TSLA to rainbows and unicorns
Elon to offer free ticket into commercial space flight for any cars purchases above $200,000.
Tesla to offer equity owner perk on stocks registered before Dec 2014. 10% discount on supercharger network and merchants attached to supercharger.
Falcon 9 Punches through the sky and the launch is a success.
 
We are definitely picking up steam. I remain cautious but optimistic. I'm 80% in at this point. 20% remains in cash just in case we have another last minute buy opportunity.

The sentiment has shifted again. Possible short-term surprises now would be another fire, or a bad call by the NHTSA.
The majority of the market doesn't expect anything major to come out of the NHTSA ruling at this point. High expectations are dangerous (as we have learned with Q3) so place your bets accordingly.

You guys are watching TSLA act rationally on a day when there is very little trading and it's a half day with many people taking the day off. I want to add a note of caution that part of the reason that the stock is down to the 120 level, which is ridiculously low in my (our) opinions, is that there is a highly effective FUD machine and a bot out there that blows through stop losses quite effectively.
Consider the possibility that the "machine" is off today and was off this past wednesday because its owners went on vacation, and the bot will come back online next week to push the price down again.

I would love for us to be out of this ditch, but we might only be out of this ditch today because rational people are in the market on this holiday.
 
You guys are watching TSLA act rationally on a day when there is very little trading and it's a half day with many people taking the day off. I want to add a note of caution that part of the reason that the stock is down to the 120 level, which is ridiculously low in my (our) opinions, is that there is a highly effective FUD machine and a bot out there that blows through stop losses quite effectively.
Consider the possibility that the "machine" is off today and was off this past wednesday because its owners went on vacation, and the bot will come back online next week to push the price down again.

I would love for us to be out of this ditch, but we might only be out of this ditch today because rational people are in the market on this holiday.

Do bots take vacations? My assumption is that if a financial firm has a bot that they think makes them money, they aren't likely to turn it off and waste a trading day. Anyone know about this?
 
Do bots take vacations? My assumption is that if a financial firm has a bot that they think makes them money, they aren't likely to turn it off and waste a trading day. Anyone know about this?

No idea. Best case scenario: They are 'on' but much of negative FUD built into price and recent positive info (DB) has caused the price to increase.

Worse case scenario: They have been 'turned off' or at least no new info has been placed into them and when they go back online Monday the sh*t hits the fan. I bought back (about 1/3 my original position) in with some of my available cash from selling after third fire hit the wire. I like long term Tesla and TSLA potential but I am still leery about short term. This may have caused me to miss the bottom (best price we will see again). I can live with that.:wink:
 
Breaking news from FUD of Bulls:

The best of gasoline car SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUSTS
http://www.topgear.com/uk/photos/mazda-furai-concept-fire-2013-11-29
Top Gear HIDES TRUTH for MAZDA in the last 5 years

NY attorney general investigates Top Gear USA citing its European counterpart's deceptive episodes regarding the fire risks and bias against Electric cars. Demands apology for the misleading episodes about Tesla and concerned about rich bankers in NY buying the wrong car that might kill them and NY's tax base.
 
[BOLD]Moderator's Note:[\BOLD]

Friendly reminder:

This thread is about short-run movements, including news impacts, technical analysis, and the like.

The long-term thread is the place for discussions about bigger trends, i.e. overall success of EVs or the size of Tesla's next battery packs.

There is NO THREAD to dump on other posters. Challenge their statements, of course, but stop with the ad hominem attacks. If you feel a post is trolling or bot-driven, please report the post. Nigel and I try to stay on top of the boards, but you guys sometimes post faster than we can review.

There is nothing wrong with posting about your fears, uncertainties, and doubts. There is something wrong in posting false or misleading info, regardless of what side you take.
 
What appeared to be a breakout might have been deceiving. The first chart is what I have been going off of for a while now. After seeing the breakout take a pause, I went looking for more. See the the second chart with "new trend lines", I believe it might tell the story. I'm still very cautious here, until we clear more resistance or establish a stronger, consistent uptrend. Again, no advice, just what I'm seeing. As always, eagerly waiting to get long again (I'm currently long with ~20% of my original/intended holdings).

0P3nOCzp.png




I2fTx3Xm.png
 
Status
Not open for further replies.