Damn I miss Dilbert. I've been working out a couple things and I wanted to put them here to see what people think. It has to do with Q3/4, ZEV, Model X and reservation $. Let me know your thoughts:
Premise - if there had been any ZEV in Q3, would there have been the same reaction? (amplified by the fires)
- Tesla produced 1311 total ZEV credits October of 2012 - September 0f 2013.
- They carried over 276 ZEV credits from last year to this year.
- From the 1035 credits they sold Oct 2012 - Sep 2013, they realized approximately $160 million of revenue ($68 million Q1, $51 million Q2, $10 million Q3 and - please check - approx. $40 million in Q4 of 2012). That comes out to about $154,000.00/credit.
- If the 276 credits are sold in Q4 of 2013 for $154,000.00/credit then that will equal approx. $42 million in ZEV revenue.
- If they earn an additional 327 credits in Q4 (1311/4 from last year) and also sell those, that is an additional $50 million in revenue.
- If Tesla delivers 6400 cars @ $95k/car (ex-ZEV) with 26% margin, $90 million in ZEV, and a 22% increase in R&D and SG&A ($138 million) it is about $.83 EPS non-GAAP and $.39 EPS GAAP.
Reservations:
There was a recent article on Seeking Alpha about reservations...I thought it was a good conclusion, but not great methodology, so I crunched some numbers:
Reservations $ on 9/30 = $140.27 million
Model X reservations on 9/30 (estimate from Wiki post Model X thread):
Signature (762 US/150 EU/30CAN) = 940 x $40,000 = $37,600,000
Production (6030 US/760EU/250CAN) = 7,040 x $5,000 = $35,000,000
Which leaves about $68,000,000 for Model S reservations.
The only places where Model S reservations are significantly higher is Asia ($2500 vs $5000). For modeling purposes, I looked at an 80% US/CAN/Euro 20% Asia and a 70/30 split.
For 80%/20% you get 21,760 model S reservations at $2500 and 2720 model S reservations at $5,000 - or about 24,500 reservations in September 2013.
For 70%/30% you get 19040 reservations at $2500 and 4080 reservations at $5,000 or about 23,100 reservations.
Either number represents about 8-9 months of production at 700 cars/wk....so if Tesla guided to 33,600 cars for 2014 (700/wk x 48 weeks), and if the reservation backlog was similar December 31, 2013, then they would already have pre-sold their production through at least July and probably August.
If you put ZEV/EPS for Q4, with the guidance above and a clearance from the NTSB all in January or early February....that would be exiting.
I would enjoy everyone's thoughts...good day for Tesla and Solar today - looking forward to 2014 and beyond.
Cheers.
