Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Cankooo1]

I have noticed in the link regarding 100 cars that just under the price there is text :

VAT. deductable (ausweisbar) which I believe in Germany is 19% for new cars and usually this schould apply for companies and corporate clients as tax credit.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok I was really curious about this thing with the 100 cars so I called the number on the left (I do not speak German but I have managed to connect to operator who speaks English) so I told him that I am not from Germany but I’ve understood that they have 100 tesla Model S vehicles and I am definitely interested to buy one. The person responded that there is some kind of mistake because they have only one used car and they were working with their partners to provide brand new cars from Tesla. They were some kind of dealership company.

So I believe there is someone with big short position willing to create false information to justify the bearish demand argument.

 

[schonelucht]

I say again: Athlon car lease?

It makes sense it is a leasing company giving back the cars, but why specifically Athlon?

 

[chickensevil]

I have noticed in the link regarding 100 cars that just under the price there is text :

VAT. deductable (ausweisbar) which I believe in Germany is 19% for new cars and usually this schould apply for companies and corporate clients as tax credit.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok I was really curious about this thing with the 100 cars so I called the number on the left (I do not speak German but I have managed to connect to operator who speaks English) so I told him that I am not from Germany but I’ve understood that they have 100 tesla Model S vehicles and I am definitely interested to buy one. The person responded that there is some kind of mistake because they have only one used car and they were working with their partners to provide brand new cars from Tesla. They were some kind of dealership company.

So I believe there is someone with big short position willing to create false information to justify the bearish demand argument.

Hey thanks for trying to get to the bottom of this. If it is absolute FUD of this nature it makes it even better to argue against!

 

[Robert.Boston]

Hey thanks for trying to get to the bottom of this. If it is absolute FUD of this nature it makes it even better to argue against!

Or trade against, if we think the market is taking the "news" seriously.

 

[FluxCap]

Someone just placed a single order for 134,350 shares at the opening bell for about $31.5 million. I like this optimism.

Edit: wow, rest of the market, not so optimistic today.

 

[The Blue Owl]

This whole discussion about 100 or 13 cars listed for sale online, in which I am also a participant, made me remember one thing.

There is no trace of deception directed at shareholders that can be found in the entire recorded history of Elon Musk. In every single the-sky-is-falling scenario from the past (the late deliveries in 2012, the NYT review, the fires, etc.) the best way to cut through the fear, uncertainty, and doubt would have been to simply trust Elon Musk. Those who trusted his words were also the ones making money, every single time.

So in this case, the most likely explanation is that there is no demand problem, and even if this online listing is legit (which it may very well not be), there is a perfectly good explanation for it, and it doesn't even matter what that explanation is because Elon doesn't have a history of lying.

Of course, this isn't news for many/most on this board, so this reminder is directed chiefly at myself. I don't take credit for it either; it was FluxCap's post earlier in the thread where he pointed out that his main sources of info are Musk's and Tesla's public statements. It is worth re-stating, though, because it's precisely those who are not fanatics, those who continuously consider new evidence to inform their investment decisions, who are prone to wavering. When I lost money on TSLA in the past (or rather, when I decreased the gains that could have been), was always when I tried too much to avoid self-deception and ended up giving the benefit of the doubt to FUD propagators, while forgetting to consider the whole available evidence.

To emphasize: it's not blind faith that's required, but only to remember adding Musk's record to date to the evidence pool before making a decision. Until that record changes, it should always be given the biggest weight.

- - - Updated - - -

This action seems to be driven entirely by the larger market. Very low volume, and synchronized movement.

 

[imherkimer]

When I looked into the link just now, there were not 100 nor 13 cars, but only two Model S's, and one with more than 3000 km and the other with more than 6000 km. So it looks like the confusion on that website has been cleared up now. It seems there actually never were 100 cars with 0 km on them for sale through this site. Or am I missing something?

 

[dalalsid]

I have noticed in the link regarding 100 cars that just under the price there is text :

VAT. deductable (ausweisbar) which I believe in Germany is 19% for new cars and usually this schould apply for companies and corporate clients as tax credit.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok I was really curious about this thing with the 100 cars so I called the number on the left (I do not speak German but I have managed to connect to operator who speaks English) so I told him that I am not from Germany but I’ve understood that they have 100 tesla Model S vehicles and I am definitely interested to buy one. The person responded that there is some kind of mistake because they have only one used car and they were working with their partners to provide brand new cars from Tesla. They were some kind of dealership company.

So I believe there is someone with big short position willing to create false information to justify the bearish demand argument.

Thanks for the research!

 

[Twiddler]

Still, it looks as if this non-event may be used to get that gap fill down at $218

 

[AlMc]

Still, it looks as if this non-event may be used to get that gap fill down at $218

This appears to be classic FUD on a big option closing day. I decided to buy on the dip. (weeklies) as I don't think this has legs. There are too many people/institutions that are waiting to get in. Our high water mark was about $265. This level is about 15% drop with really NO real negative news.

 

[aznt1217]

Curious to know what's everybody's new targets based on their technical/dancing unicorn analysis for the end of March? (Sleepy and Citizen-T). Was really gunning for the $280 and it seemed like the elements were there by end of March.

 

[Citizen-T]

Curious to know what's everybody's new targets based on their technical/dancing unicorn analysis for the end of March? (Sleepy and Citizen-T). Was really gunning for the $280 and it seemed like the elements were there by end of March.

I've been short since ~$260. I was looking for $220 by today so I could get back in, but there has been a ton of support at $230 (we see it again today). I'm in the process of unwinding my short position right now. That'll leave me about half in, so if the stock does decide to pull back, I can as much as double my position.

That's the plan for now at least.

 

[sleepyhead]

I still think that the stock is heading towards gap fill and will get there ($218) eventually before turning around. Unless of course we get a big positive catalyst for TSLA, but I have a feeling that the gap will be filled eventually.

 

[eepic]

This whole discussion about 100 or 13 cars listed for sale online, in which I am also a participant, made me remember one thing.

There is no trace of deception directed at shareholders that can be found in the entire recorded history of Elon Musk. In every single the-sky-is-falling scenario from the past (the late deliveries in 2012, the NYT review, the fires, etc.) the best way to cut through the fear, uncertainty, and doubt would have been to simply trust Elon Musk. Those who trusted his words were also the ones making money, every single time.

So in this case, the most likely explanation is that there is no demand problem, and even if this online listing is legit (which it may very well not be), there is a perfectly good explanation for it, and it doesn't even matter what that explanation is because Elon doesn't have a history of lying.

Of course, this isn't news for many/most on this board, so this reminder is directed chiefly at myself. I don't take credit for it either; it was FluxCap's post earlier in the thread where he pointed out that his main sources of info are Musk's and Tesla's public statements. It is worth re-stating, though, because it's precisely those who are not fanatics, those who continuously consider new evidence to inform their investment decisions, who are prone to wavering. When I lost money on TSLA in the past (or rather, when I decreased the gains that could have been), was always when I tried too much to avoid self-deception and ended up giving the benefit of the doubt to FUD propagators, while forgetting to consider the whole available evidence.

To emphasize: it's not blind faith that's required, but only to remember adding Musk's record to date to the evidence pool before making a decision. Until that record changes, it should always be given the biggest weight.

- - - Updated - - -

This action seems to be driven entirely by the larger market. Very low volume, and synchronized movement.

View attachment 45447

I think the reason is that money is not his primary motivation, he could have retired and bought an island long ago but instead risked his entire fortune (and more) to try to accomplish meaningful things. He knows that being deceptive in talking up the numbers, then disappointing, is not the right way to accomplish his long term goals. Visionaries whose companies are focused on the product and not the money ironically end up making the most money in the long run.

Exactly why I don't think '100 german cars' article paints the full picture, it's either fake, a third party, or there was a good reason for TM to do so. I would stick with the Elon's word any day.

 

[AlMc]

I still think that the stock is heading towards gap fill and will get there ($218) eventually before turning around. Unless of course we get a big positive catalyst for TSLA, but I have a feeling that the gap will be filled eventually.

Sleepy: Interested in what catalysts (lack of catalysts/FUD, etc.) has changed your outlook from 280 by end of March to Gap fill to 218. Not doubting you. Just trying to learn from you about how you changed your scenario for TSLA. Thanks Al

 

[eepic]

When I looked into the link just now, there were not 100 nor 13 cars, but only two Model S's, and one with more than 3000 km and the other with more than 6000 km. So it looks like the confusion on that website has been cleared up now. It seems there actually never were 100 cars with 0 km on them for sale through this site. Or am I missing something?

Maybe Paulo isn't lying and there were 100 for sale, they just sold really really fast

 

[sleepyhead]

Sleepy: Interested in what catalysts (lack of catalysts/FUD, etc.) has changed your outlook from 280 by end of March to Gap fill to 218. Not doubting you. Just trying to learn from you about how you changed your scenario for TSLA. Thanks Al

My call for $280 was before Q4 ER, because I thought Tesla would guide for 40k vehicles. After they guided for $35k I said on our post ER google hangout that I still think $250 - $260 (IIRC) is possible, and that my $280 call was based on that 40k guidance.

I am not changing my bullish stance on TSLA. I just think that rigth now it is trading on technicals and eventually technicals are going to want to bring it down to fill the gap, if we don't get any catalysts.

I don't know what that catalyst could be, but I don't think that we will get one by the end of March. I think that the next big catalyst will be the first China car delivery, but that will not happen until April if I understand things correctly. Does anyone know when the first car is scheduled to be delivered in China?

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@sleepy

Maybe that is even more important the number of Model S reservations in China and the implementation of the SC network in China? What's your opinion on this matter and do we have data available about it?

 

[pz1975]

To play the expected max pain near 230, I just made a small weekly bear call spread selling 230 calls and buying 232.50 calls for 1.40 maximum gain (closes at or below 230) and 1.10 maximum loss (if closes at or greater than 232.50). My break even point is if it closes at 231.40. Just 5 contracts in each side so nothing too risky - just wanted to play the max pain theory for the week.

 

[SteveG3]

I think Paulo's article is only true to his own private motives. however, I do think this blogging fiction is bringing to light something worth considering in terms of short-term price movements.

I think we might have a situation a bit like the 2013 earnings call. the stock was near it's highs from it's big run. Tesla announced earnings, and false stories that they missed guidance came out and the stock sold off. Tesla was transparent and accurate in their guidance, but nonetheless, the stock sold off... about 10% just in the after hours that day IIRC. so even though the reported cause was factually untrue, "Tesla missing guidance" (they didn't miss analyst guidance for that matter either), I think some expectations had been so high for Tesla, and the stock's runup in preceding months so strong, others were just waiting for any negative catalyst, real or imagined for the stock to selloff.

I think it's worth considering the possibility short-term of something similar repeating. Clearly, the stock price has been up extremely strongly over the last several months, and there are some with very high expectations, and I suspect some who just feel it only makes sense for the stock to sell off given it's huge upward move. We've gotten one story that looks false in terms of the 100 cars for sale. However false the story is, it may bring attention to something true that Tesla has already discussed, the EU being an area where sales have fallen short of the pace Tesla had been looking for (see excerpt from February's earnings call below). so, it's possible there will be other stories taking shots at Tesla's sales in the E.U., and falsely suggesting it is news or contrary to what Tesla has stated. Like the deliveries in Q3, the current sales in the E.U. are very unlikely to be anything but a short-term imaginary oasis for the shorts... that is, I think the EU will ultimately (1-2 years) meet Tesla's previous expectations, and in the meantime, I think it is very likely that current EU softness is far eclipsed by Chinese surging demand (which may be made very clear to the world as soon as the next earnings call, knock the legs out of false short demand thesis, even if EU specifically will be a little late to the party).

fwiw, here's the Q&A from a month ago where Elon indicated the EU demand was not reaching Tesla's expectations as quickly as they'd expected. I think it's worth noting that none of the analyst's probed any further on this... when the analysts as a group are seeing all blue skies, I think it's a red flag to at least look at whether market sentiment has gotten a bit high.

"Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research DivisionSo if you look at your new guide for 35k units for 2014 and sort of the comment that a fair chunk of that will be in China and Europe, just where it is -- just directionally, where does the order book stand in these geographies? What's trending maybe better than you might have expected? And where do you still need some marketing or education work?
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product ArchitectWell, we -- I think there's probably work to do in a number of locations in Europe, mostly because we still have to sort out a number of charging issues. Because the -- even though the EU is sort of 1 market economically. It's certainly not one market from an electricity standpoint. So we're sorting through a number of charging issues over there. And I think that's what's slowing down our [indiscernible] temporarily, but we feel confident about addressing those in the very near term and expect that the sales will do -- will pick up quite a bit over in Europe."

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Motors Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha