Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[JRP3]

A number of the perma bears at SA have claimed that both Barclays and Baird were guided lower by Tesla management during their time with Tesla. The only quoted reference of this suggests that they came up with the lower numbers on their own, not because of direct statements from Tesla management. Anyone have access to the reports from either of these two?

 

[justthateasy]

Another day, another drop in price. Other than the FUD and economic/world events, is there anything legitimately supporting this drop?

 

[eepic]

Another day, another drop in price. Other than the FUD and economic/world events, is there anything legitimately supporting this drop?

The NASDAQ is off quite a bit today, so all the big tech companies are bleeding a bit (AMZN, NFLX down more than TSLA percentage wise at the moment). Solarcity is off 6%.

 

[FluxCap]

Another day, another drop in price. Other than the FUD and economic/world events, is there anything legitimately supporting this drop?

Putin.

 

[bsd]

It seems there actually never were 100 cars with 0 km on them for sale through this site. Or am I missing something?

I doubt any car would be delivered with 0 as Tesla does some basic drive testing at the factory. Mine had about 50km at delivery, IIRC. I understand that it's illegal to reset odometers, so I doubt it's easy for Tesla would do.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Putin.

NASDAQ composite was only down 1%, while TSLA was down more than 2%. So, I think there's a fair bit of TSLA-specific weakness.

My guess is that it's simply the lack of any positive news. TSLA is a momentum stock, and unless good news keeps it spun up, it sags.

 

[FluxCap]

NASDAQ composite was only down 1%, while TSLA was down more than 2%. So, I think there's a fair bit of TSLA-specific weakness.

My guess is that it's simply the lack of any positive news. TSLA is a momentum stock, and unless good news keeps it spun up, it sags.

I agree Robert, I think it's the lack of any news at all (positive or negative) that makes us track the NASDAQ with an "amplification factor" that I haven't charted specifically, but have become accustomed to seeing. On days when NASDAQ is up we can often be up an extra few %, and the same goes for down days.

I don't yet see a realistic endgame for Putin and the West to "make friends again" anytime soon, and I think this is weighing heavily on the market -- particularly with growth and momentum-capable stocks like TSLA.

Ironically, it is precisely these kinds of globally destabilizing power plays over the control of fossil fuels that Tesla could help disrupt one day, which makes it an even better bet long-term. Hopefully, in due time, we are living in a distributed battery-electric economy with solar cells on everything giving our Teslas their go-juice straight from the source (sun). In that world, men like Putin would be less able to rise to power digging dinosaurs out of the ground. One can dream.

 

[The Blue Owl]

My impression is that the decline of the last three days is mostly due to Janet Yellen's comment spelling out the approximate time when the interest rates might start to rise. She specified "on the order of 6 months after the tapering ends", and the market was jolted a bit out of its secret wish that the low rates would last forever.

Moreover, China's economy is sneezing a bit, so we may have gotten a little temporary cold, too. I don't think Ukraine weighed that much on today's price, since not much happened there this week, save for the U.S. sanctions (which hurt only the Russian market.)

 

[FluxCap]

My impression is that the decline of the last three days is mostly due to Janet Yellen's comment spelling out the approximate time when the interest rates might start to rise. She specified "on the order of 6 months after the tapering ends", and the market was jolted a bit out of its secret wish that the low rates would last forever.

Moreover, China's economy is sneezing a bit, so we may have gotten a little temporary cold, too. I don't think Ukraine weighed that much on today's price, since not much happened there this week, save for the U.S. sanctions (which hurt only the Russian market.)

Could be you are right. I certainly cringed in real-time when Ms. Yellen said "6 months" because I knew it would be the overblown sound bite for the market, and I'm sure she lost a good bit of sleep over that rookie mistake. In fact I hope you are right, because that is an eminently more palatable scenario than the market beginning to price in escalation of East-West conflict.

 

[emupilot]

Could the decline just be because the stock went up too much, too fast in response to the Morgan Stanley report? It's cool that people outside this forum think that Tesla will one day rule the world, but it's hard to maintain that excitement when several years and many interim steps must come to fruition before that happens.

Does the closing price indicate that the 230 resistance has been broken and we're likely to see a continuing decline to 218?

 

[The Blue Owl]

For those who missed the whole Janet Yellen thing, there is a very good explanation on the New Yorker website about her comment, its context, and the market reaction to it.

On edit:

Could the decline just be because the stock went up too much, too fast in response to the Morgan Stanley report? It's cool that people outside this forum think that Tesla will one day rule the world, but it's hard to maintain that excitement when several years and many interim steps must come to fruition before that happens.

That is probably a factor, too. Also, as FluxCap pointed out, in the absence of positive news TSLA tends to trade with the market as a whole, with an amplification factor.

 

[30seconds]

Seems to me like a general risk off day. I think tsla is a bit more vulnerable because of all the momentum buyers who have moved into the stock over the last few months. Big off week for biotech as well

 

[Mario Kadastik]

In the firmware thread there is a report of a Model S with firmware 5.9 seen at Hawthorne. No details further, but it's been said that 5.9 is the intermediate release to bring back auto-lowering. If that is indeed the case and the firmware is seen in the wild, then this would mean NHTSA clearance should be just around the corner. Now we still need to wait for someone to get it, flip through the release notes and confirm that auto-lowering is indeed in it. If so, then short term news catalyst should be coming in the next few weeks.

 

[FredTMC]

In the firmware thread there is a report of a Model S with firmware 5.9 seen at Hawthorne. No details further, but it's been said that 5.9 is the intermediate release to bring back auto-lowering. If that is indeed the case and the firmware is seen in the wild, then this would mean NHTSA clearance should be just around the corner. Now we still need to wait for someone to get it, flip through the release notes and confirm that auto-lowering is indeed in it. If so, then short term news catalyst should be coming in the next few weeks.

Wow. To have the NHTSA "all clear" soon (e.g. next week) would be fantastic news. My fingers are crossed. It's been a looong wait.

 

[pz1975]

I've given up trying to time the NHTSA results. I think it will just randomly pop up when we don't expect it.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Wow. To have the NHTSA "all clear" soon (e.g. next week) would be fantastic news. My fingers are crossed. It's been a looong wait.

Finger crossed also here in Italy.

 

[smorgasbord]

...confirm that auto-lowering is indeed in it. If so, then short term news catalyst should be coming in the next few weeks.

If auto-lowering comes back then yes, we might get an upside catalyst, but then I'd expect another really bad medium-term catalyst in the weeks or months to follow.

 

[greglaw]

Could the decline just be because the stock went up too much, too fast in response to the Morgan Stanley report? It's cool that people outside this forum think that Tesla will one day rule the world, but it's hard to maintain that excitement when several years and many interim steps must come to fruition before that happens.

Does the closing price indicate that the 230 resistance has been broken and we're likely to see a continuing decline to 218?

Traders just seem during past couple of weeks to be rotating out of the high-quality momentum names (Netflix, Google, Priceline, as well as Tesla) and into less-expensive,
lower-quality (junk?) stocks. 210-218 looks like first support to me, with stronger support at 180. 218 would "fill the gap," so that could stop the slide. The stock hit deep oversold territory (stochastics) this week, and ADXMOD is only slightly over 25. May get a bounce off 218.

 

[FluxCap]

Good news For Tesla: Arizona moves to legalize direct sales of the electric cars | VentureBeat | Green | by John Voelcker, Green Car Reports

Jersey who?

Someone wants a gigafactory.

 

[carnut4ever]

I was in the Rocklin, Ca store yesterday. They have 4 cars in the showroom, up from zero two months ago. Also, there is a plan to put a supercharger in Reno. News of 100 cars in Germany sitting on a lot. Sounds like the model s in not production constrained anymore.