Gilbert Passim has more than enough chops in auto manufacturing. A growth company like Tesla (or Apple) shouldn't have a nuts-and-bolts guy as CEO, but a visionary.
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GM recalling 370,000 full-size trucks due to a potential fire hazard.
Embarrassing setback as Chevy Silverado vies for Car of the Year
Embarrassing setback as Chevy Silverado vies for Car of the Year
Krugerrand
Meow
What gives you the impression that Tesla needs someone in the role of supply chain and manufacturing expertise...given what's been accomplished to date? Do you consider the overwhelming popularity of the Model S, leading to battery constraints, being the fault of whomever is currently in charge of such? When they sat around the table at Tesla to put their first Panasonic battery agreement together, they had to guess how many cars they'd sell. They guessed wrong, but then certain other OEMs have guessed wrong about how many cars they'd sell of specific models, time and time again, and they've been at the game for several decades....so that can't be what you're referring to.
First, I believe that communication from Tesla has changed substantively in the last month or two. The have become much more deliberate in terms of what news is released, directly and indirectly.
Secondly, the source of this article is autonews.com. Consider who their advertisers are. "Top executives who talked to Automotive News expressed concern that the automaker's ambitions may overreach its abilities."
I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I do respect Noam Chomsky.
For the record I am convinced that Elon Musk is making a concerted effort to refine the "Tesla Story" presentation. Tesla is getting better at PR.
I believe in Elon Musk and the Tesla story. Both Elon and Tesla have come a long way do indeed have much more to do. However, it's the poor reporting in the mainstream media and market reaction is what I'm trying to get it at. All it takes is the "more work to do" phrase posted in a headline/newsfeed for the market to react.
I don't want to go too far off into the weeds here, however, given the challenge of going from manufacturing 20k cars to 200k cars, supply chain and manufacturing is certainly a huge issue. I'm not saying that Tesla doesn't have the people they need... I'm saying in response to Twiddler slight against Mr. Cook that, in actuality, right now Tesla needs more talent and expertise on the supply chain and manufacturing side. That's a good thing, as the earlier success is what put them into this position. And in reality, they've hired some people from Apple just for those needs already.
What about HR issues? You guys mention supply chain but if it takes 1000 people to make 20,000 a year, how many people does HR have to manage through their daily lives to make 100,000 or 200,000? Machines work in discrete ways and sometimes break down. People come and go, act irrationally, get tired, retire, get fired and so on. Also, do all OEM's have the capacity to ramp up to the numbers expected? And who will wire up the electric motors and battery packs when the count goes up by 10x? Will it be outsourced? Would a giga battery plant also produced the finished battery systems and send them in by train to the HQ or would HQ build the battery packs out of just far more cells?
Ah, the perpetually skeptical bonaire...
Those things you mention are of course challenges but it is not an issue at in my opinion. People are flocking to work for Tesla, so the company can cherry pick the best candidates, i.e. people who are willing to work hard and do a good job. You would be amazed at the difference it makes to have a highly motivated workforce.
Over a decade ago, when I moved back to the US, I had no money and was starting a new life from scratch and willing to accept any job and work hard to make as much money as possible to get an education for myself and my wife; therefore I was highly motivated. I started working at $6/hour doing oil changes at Jiffy Lube, but then applied for a job at a window factory to load windows into trailers (back breaking work). One of the questions they asked me is if I was willing to work over-time (paid time and a half) and sometimes 7 days/week. I responded that I would love to work as much overtime as possible (which was the truth), and the interviewer looked at me like I am crazy and even said that none of the other applicants were too excited about working overtime. Needless to say I got the job, worked a lot of overtime, and still kept my other job at Jiffy Lube. A year later my wife and I were able to start back college in part thanks to the money we saved over that year; still had to work full-time going through school though.
I am confident that Tesla also has plenty of motivated applicants and it shows in the interview process. Once they pick the best candidates, their growing pains will be smaller than other growth companies experience.
Elon also said that other OEM's are ready to ramp up and the only thing holding them back is the battery supply.
And the growth will be organic from 20k to 40k to 80k... It is not like they are going to ramp up to 100k annualized rate over night.
Staffing is the least of my concerns when it comes to Tesla.
Norse
Active Member
MartinAustin
Active Member
It's no more up or down than it has ever been on a normal day. In fact it is doing a surprisingly similar dance to what it has done over the last few days, even though today is the start of the show.
I think Tesla has done a great job of keeping its announcements under wraps. The speculation around here has been fierce and clueless.
(that dumb instagram of a Model S is obviously not what they are revealing)
We will just have to wait a little more. I have high hopes!
I think Tesla has done a great job of keeping its announcements under wraps. The speculation around here has been fierce and clueless.
(that dumb instagram of a Model S is obviously not what they are revealing)
We will just have to wait a little more. I have high hopes!
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=40720&d=1389625681
Also full Automotive news article: (negative but also encouraging because auto execs still don't get Tesla)
http://www.autonews.com/article/201...h-tesla-beyond-its-comfort-zone#axzz2qI9VK4ss
On the other hand that Model S is locked and the touch screen is not on. So AWD and a 110kwh battery are still possibilities.
Would be nice, but here the screen is on What's going to be at the 2014 NAIAS Tesla exhibit? - Page 9
and here the front trunk is open What's going to be at the 2014 NAIAS Tesla exhibit? - Page 9
EDIT - I see now, that there are two different white Model S cars on the floor, so perhaps the one with the roof rack holds a surprise.
Other than most of the market being down today, any other reason why TSLA is down? Could any of it be attributed to the Automotive News article?
From a technical perspective, TSLA plowed through 145 and is barely holding 142 and the 50-day MA. If this drop continues, the next significant support level is at 135 then the 200-day MA which is in the mid-120s.
From a technical perspective, TSLA plowed through 145 and is barely holding 142 and the 50-day MA. If this drop continues, the next significant support level is at 135 then the 200-day MA which is in the mid-120s.
I'm not skeptical, I'm mainly realistic.
If the growth is organic, I would suggest considering a growth rate now based on the golden mean. As complexity grows, rate of growth of a hard-goods and heavy-goods company has limitations that tech firms and software does not. I look at growth possibility of units-sold this year at a golden mean growth rate of 1.61 x 22500 or perhaps 36,225 units in 2014 and just under 60,000 for 2015 if all markets are open, all channels are flowing and incentives continue in hot areas like Norway, USA and more.
Tesla is tapping into the massive worldwide auto part supply chain so likely does not have typical limitations of a company in a new market. The biggest constraint right now and for the future is battery supply.
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