Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Gerardf]

"U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium LLC, an industry group operated by Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors"

.

US ABC.... Had a look at their website and I see a recent press release that "U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium" in June 2014 awared Envia a 7.7M contract :

USCAR: Press Release: USABC AWARDS $7.7 MILLION CONTRACT TO ENVIA SYSTEMS FOR ADVANCED EV BATTERY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Hmmmm Envia again ??? : The mysterious story of the battery startup that promised GM a 200-mile electric car Quartz

Scroll down an read how that ended for GM

And : Lawsuit alleges that battery startup Envia Systems was founded using stolen intellectual property; Envia denies it - San Jose Mercury News

If that is what GM, Crysler and Ford rely on for their Battery Tech... Wish them better luck with that this time around ....
And accoording to the Press Release partly paid for by the DOE..

 

[Renaud]

Well, I guess after the very nice last few days (if not weeks), giving back less than 1% is not so dramatic.
I was greedy and added a bit more, expecting a continuous rise. I should have learnt by now...

 

[chickensevil]

Well, I guess after the very nice last few days (if not weeks), giving back less than 1% is not so dramatic.
I was greedy and added a bit more, expecting a continuous rise. I should have learnt by now...

Maybe it is the delayed Tuesday effect? Since Monday was a holiday... and we determined that Tuesdays that have a Monday holiday tend to break away from the trend, maybe we should search back through the Wednesdays after the Tuesdays which follow a Monday holiday? (Say this as only a half joke... I am a bit curious if this holds any merit...)

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BTW if it is a Tuesday trend this doesn't mean we will close in the red. Since we opened with a decent gap, we could still close above the red while still being below the original opening price, which was all I was ever claiming was happening on Tuesdays... Generally if there isn't a gap up on open it seems to be quite difficult to close in the green on a "Tesla Tuesday"... Just some food for thought... I am not at all saying that is what is happening, since I don't have the time right now to put together that information, but just my observations on the trends and such.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Hate to ask ... as others may have ... are you two related?

Which two?

 

[RABaby]

Maybe it is the delayed Tuesday effect? Since Monday was a holiday... and we determined that Tuesdays that have a Monday holiday tend to break away from the trend, maybe we should search back through the Wednesdays after the Tuesdays which follow a Monday holiday? (Say this as only a half joke... I am a bit curious if this holds any merit...)

I believe about a year ago that it was determined that Wednesday following a Monday holiday is a Tuesday in terms of negative stock action. But as much as people want to associate a day with an opportunity to buy or sell, the fact remains that all trading days have a high and a low and those each offer an opportunity to buy or sell. Also, there is a value to the stock that people expect to see and the daily movements are irrelevant to long term holders.

Stock prices reflect a number of factors, most of which are quantifiable, but if we were to use superstition to guide our investments, such as Tuesdays are bad or poems will wreak havoc, then you can no longer call it investing. But there are lots of people who are short term traders and I suppose every conceivable factor that "could" influence the price as far as that investor is concerned must be considered by him or her. I don't dispute the apparent connection between stock price and some logically unrelated events, but I don't buy or sell based on any of them.

 

[austinEV]

Which two?

I too thought "Chickensevil"'s username was a good-natured editorial barb aimed at you or some other chicken-themed user. I think that is what GreenT is asking. I take it that the answer is no, there isn't meant to be a connection there.

 

[chickensevil]

I believe about a year ago that it was determined that Wednesday following a Monday holiday is a Tuesday in terms of negative stock action. But as much as people want to associate a day with an opportunity to buy or sell, the fact remains that all trading days have a high and a low and those each offer an opportunity to buy or sell. Also, there is a value to the stock that people expect to see and the daily movements are irrelevant to long term holders.

Stock prices reflect a number of factors, most of which are quantifiable, but if we were to use superstition to guide our investments, such as Tuesdays are bad or poems will wreak havoc, then you can no longer call it investing. But there are lots of people who are short term traders and I suppose every conceivable factor that "could" influence the price as far as that investor is concerned must be considered by him or her. I don't dispute the apparent connection between stock price and some logically unrelated events, but I don't buy or sell based on any of them.

I am not trying to attach a superstition to it... there is something that happens that causes immense downward pressure on the stock on Tuesdays (or I guess in this case, Wednesdays that follow a Monday holiday). I haven't figured out why exactly this happens, but the prevailing theory as far as I have seen is related to short selling. I obviously would not trade just on the basis of the Tesla Tuesday, you have to take a lot of details into account when making any trade. And while daily movements might be irrelevant to long term holders (which most of us are), this is the Short Term Price Movements thread... you know... to help with understanding the price movements in the short term...

Since I was not part of the discussion a year ago about all of this, I would be happy to read up on it if you could point me in the direction of what page (out of thousands) to look through on this subject. This was something I only recently noticed about the stock behaviour, so if me, not being part of any of the previous discussion am picking up on this trend, then wouldn't that give credence toward it being a legitimate phenomena? Just because you don't see magnetic fields doesn't make magnets a superstitious behaviour. I want to understand why it happens... and I get the feeling that the poems thing people are largely joking about that... which, it is quite funny.

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I too thought "Chickensevil"'s username was a good-natured editorial barb aimed at you or some other chicken-themed user. I think that is what GreenT is asking. I take it that the answer is no, there isn't meant to be a connection there.

Off topic, but I have had this handle for a VERY long time. It goes back to my high school days... If you ever see it anywhere on the internet... it is me. I think I have always kept the name since no one ever has it, and generally no one has anything close to it... (and because of this I did a Google search and apparently other people have actually used the handle beside me... but I would say 99% of the stuff out there is mine) this being one of the rare exceptions to the rule. No offense was intended or implied in anyway toward Chickenlittle, and any relation is purely coincidence.

Has been mentioned casually before. So thought I would clear it up. Sorry for the topic derail.

 

[RABaby]

This Tuesday phenomena was considered by some to be related to short selling but that has more recently been dismissed as not currently likely and beyond that any association between the day of the week and the price action is an attempt to make something relevant where no relevancy exists.

Look at the news today. TSLA was up, along with the markets, when there was discussion of a truce. Then the truce was rejected and the markets fell. Good luck looking for some other factor that is affecting the price of TSLA. I seriously doubt you will find anything you can reliably use to influence future buying or selling because if you can find it, the variable will not work in the future. That's just how it works.

 

[Renaud]

I am not trying to attach a superstition to it... there is something that happens that causes immense downward pressure on the stock on Tuesdays (or I guess in this case, Wednesdays that follow a Monday holiday). I haven't figured out why exactly this happens, but the prevailing theory as far as I have seen is related to short selling. I obviously would not trade just on the basis of the Tesla Tuesday, you have to take a lot of details into account when making any trade. And while daily movements might be irrelevant to long term holders (which most of us are), this is the Short Term Price Movements thread... you know... to help with understanding the price movements in the short term...

Since I was not part of the discussion a year ago about all of this, I would be happy to read up on it if you could point me in the direction of what page (out of thousands) to look through on this subject. This was something I only recently noticed about the stock behaviour, so if me, not being part of any of the previous discussion am picking up on this trend, then wouldn't that give credence toward it being a legitimate phenomena? Just because you don't see magnetic fields doesn't make magnets a superstitious behaviour. I want to understand why it happens... and I get the feeling that the poems thing people are largely joking about that... which, it is quite funny.

And there was as well the post lunch recovery: see if this happens as well today!

Now seriously, those Tesla bears and the thesis of fewer sales than predicted by 2020: “This half-million number is slightly higher than the [electric vehicle] sales we expect that all auto makers combined will be able to sell in 2020,” Lux said. What they don't get is you're not just buying an EV, you're buying an excellent car that happens to be an EV (and that is a plus). If you look at things from this perspective, you have to look at the sales of Merc C and E Class, BMW 3/5 series, Ausi A4/6, etc. And how much is that? So again, they just don't get it...

 

[Robert.Boston]

Also, the NASDAQ is down (as of now) about 0.5%, TSLA down about 1.0%. So, at least part of the decline is general market softness.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I too thought "Chickensevil"'s username was a good-natured editorial barb aimed at you or some other chicken-themed user. I think that is what GreenT is asking. I take it that the answer is no, there isn't meant to be a connection there.

i dont know your asking the wrong chicken. i certainly dont mind but was registered first by months. i adopted the name because of one of the significant drops in the stock where every one was panicking and selling. i think my first post was not to sell until chickenlittle runs around yelling the sky was falling. i dont know the source of the evil one. maybe in another life he was the evil elmo in san francisco that i ran into on the warf

 

[jhm]

I agree with both Rhino and Causalien. My sense of this long rolling squeeze is that it has primarily been orchestrated to fleece retail put buyers. The FUD articles push all sorts of buttons to get short wannabes to load up on puts. Then the pros write puts and hedge with shares short and OTM calls. They basically earn income off the position whether the stock goes up or down. In the end, retail put holders are left holding the bag.

7:30 ET - MarketWired: Tesla Motors' Gigafactory Will See More Than 50% Overcapacity in Its Li-ion Production

I'll take this piece of propaganda as supporting my thesis that FUD is primarily focused on inciting wannabe shorts to buy puts. Basically the argument is so poorly constructed that anyone with a sympathetic view of Tesla would be readily able to refute it with basic facts such as Tesla's target battery target of 30%. Yes, the math is nonsense. OTOH, a wannabe short has a basic confirmation bias that will dispose them to see such a serious looking report as c edible support for their negative view of Tesla. They will not view it critically or even check the math. Instead, they will see that the price is quite high, and feeling intellectually backed up by the likes of Lux, they'll think it an opportune time to buy a few puts.

In a nutshell, longs are too critical of FUD like this to fall for it, but wannabe shorts have a confirmation bias to swallow it whole cloth. Hense, the only rational use for such propaganda is to exploit wannabe shorts.

 

[eepic]

i dont know your asking the wrong chicken. i certainly dont mind but was registered first by months. i adopted the name because of one of the significant drops in the stock where every one was panicking and selling. i think my first post was not to sell until chickenlittle runs around yelling the sky was falling. i dont know the source of the evil one. maybe in another life he was the evil elmo in san francisco that i ran into on the warf

Haha will that be the day you'll also buy LOCO?

 

[Chickenlittle]

I'll take this piece of propaganda as supporting my thesis that FUD is primarily focused on inciting wannabe shorts to buy puts. Basically the argument is so poorly constructed that anyone with a sympathetic view of Tesla would be readily able to refute it with basic facts such as Tesla's target battery target of 30%. Yes, the math is nonsense. OTOH, a wannabe short has a basic confirmation bias that will dispose them to see such a serious looking report as c edible support for their negative view of Tesla. They will not view it critically or even check the math. Instead, they will see that the price is quite high, and feeling intellectually backed up by the likes of Lux, they'll think it an opportune time to buy a few puts.

In a nutshell, longs are too critical of FUD like this to fall for it, but wannabe shorts have a confirmation bias to swallow it whole cloth. Hense, the only rational use for such propaganda is to exploit wannabe shorts.

You would be surprised by what seeing it in print does as well. It gives it credibility that an organization lends to it. Of course critical reading is required for anything, even peer reviewed scientific literature

 

[ibcs]

Dow Jones reports Tesla to choose Nevada for Battery Factory. No details in the news feed.

 

[tgp1019]

Dow Jones reports Tesla to choose Nevada for battery factory.

 

[FredTMC]

Dow Jones reports Tesla to choose Nevada for battery factory.

yeah... Still waiting for other news outlets to confirm.

 

[MartinAustin]

Phil LeBeau/CNBC also reported it (I'm avoiding the use of the word "confirmation")

However, he said Tesla will be in Nevada tomorrow to make an "economic development announcement."

 

[FredTMC]

Phil LeBeau/CNBC also reported it (I'm avoiding the use of the word "confirmation")

However, he said Tesla will be in Nevada tomorrow to make an "economic developement announcement."

thx for this detail

 

[MartinAustin]

I can't imagine them going to Nevada to say "we are not building anything more in Nevada, we're just going to sell off this cleared lot."