Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[chickensevil]

7:30 ET - MarketWired: Tesla Motors' Gigafactory Will See More Than 50% Overcapacity in Its Li-ion Production

So this has now been picked up by at least four other sites... The comments in them seem to be mixed reactions... but I would say this seems like someone is REALLY trying to push this FUD as hard as they can to stir up something negative... I went into all the comments (JonF) and posted the same retort I posted here and in an email to Lux Research on the flaw in their numbers... because you don't even need to fight the "will there be demand" argument if you destroy the "hard numbers" that is supposedly backing their research all their claims immediately lose credibility and any sane person would move on.

Tesla Motors: Too Many Batteries, Not Enough Demand? - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) News Analysis: The Gigafactory Will Lend Tesla A Cost Advantage; Or Will It?
Tesla Motors Booms, But Risking A Battery Boondoggle? TSLA - Investors.com

Tesla Motors 'gigafactory' to see overcapacity in energy storage battery production - Pennenergy

 

[chickensevil]

CNBC: Tesla chooses Nevada for new battery factory plant - Las Vegas MyNews3 - KSNV


Local news article citing CNBC which is citing "sources" that Tesla has chosen Nevada. Brief note also points to the same announcement being made tomorrow and also that Dow Jones and Wall Street Journal is also reporting on this.

 

[BlueTan85]

Phil LeBeau/CNBC also reported it (I'm avoiding the use of the word "confirmation")

However, he said Tesla will be in Nevada tomorrow to make an "economic developement announcement."

Ah, this helps explain the 37.17% gain in Western Lithium (WLCDF) today. Yay! I shoulda bought more way back when.

EDIT: Correction: 40.76% gain. Looks like so many shares of this penny stock were bought in the last few minutes, they're still countin' orders, 17 mins after market close.

 

[hockeythug]

Ah, this helps explain the 37.17% gain in Western Lithium (WLCDF) today. Yay! I shoulda bought more way back when.

EDIT: Correction: 40.76% gain. Looks like so many shares of this penny stock were bought in the last few minutes, they're still countin' orders, 17 mins after market close.

Had a day limit order two months. Never got filled.

 

[InTheShadows]

This Tuesday phenomena was considered by some to be related to short selling but that has more recently been dismissed as not currently likely and beyond that any association between the day of the week and the price action is an attempt to make something relevant where no relevancy exists.

Look at the news today. TSLA was up, along with the markets, when there was discussion of a truce. Then the truce was rejected and the markets fell. Good luck looking for some other factor that is affecting the price of TSLA. I seriously doubt you will find anything you can reliably use to influence future buying or selling because if you can find it, the variable will not work in the future. That's just how it works.

IIRC the original tesla Tuesday was coined by Luvb2b when he found the potential rolling naked short (I think it had it's own thread) that effected the stock price when the price was in the lower 30's and the volume was around 1 million/day. I believe that the volume is way too large now for anything like this to have much effect.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

"Cost-cutting is the name of the game, but the Gigafactory does not do enough. Battery prices need to fall dramatically if plug-in cars hope to break beyond their current niche. The OEMs backing the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium are targeting $125/kWh by 2020 -- more than four times lower than $520/kWh, the price Ford paid for its Focus EV battery packs. Currently, Tesla has the lowest cost -- about $274/kWh, according to Lux Research analysis. Tesla founder Elon Musk aims to cut cost by 30%, on the strength of scale, location and technology, lowering the price to $196/kWh with the Gigafactory. "

Where do "analysts" keep getting these numbers? Didn't Elon say the cost per kWH would fall below $200 without the Gigafactory by 2015?

EV Battery Prices Much Lower Than You Think?


Elon's words from the Q2 conference call:

“I would be disappointed if it took us 10 years to get to a $100/kWh pack.”

Elon Musk’s most important yet underrated statement is not to be ignored - Torque News

 

[RABaby]

IIRC the original tesla Tuesday was coined by Luvb2b when he found the potential rolling naked short (I think it had it's own thread) that effected the stock price when the price was in the lower 30's and the volume was around 1 million/day. I believe that the volume is way too large now for anything like this to have much effect.

I wasn't disputing the original theory because it seemed plausible and likely. It is just the continuation of the Tuesday effect when the rolling naked short play is not likely active any longer that I challenged because someone (JHM??) figured it was now actually Wednesday that was the statistically more negative day. If so, then the Tuesday effect on Wednesdays following a Monday holiday would not be in play.

One could look for some other mysterious effect that would then mean Thursday will be bad. I would prefer to look at the news and wait for the gigafactory conference and see the stock green by the end of the day.

 

[jhm]

I wasn't disputing the original theory because it seemed plausible and likely. It is just the continuation of the Tuesday effect when the rolling naked short play is not likely active any longer that I challenged because someone (JHM??) figured it was now actually Wednesday that was the statistically more negative day. If so, then the Tuesday effect on Wednesdays following a Monday holiday would not be in play.

One could look for some other mysterious effect that would then mean Thursday will be bad. I would prefer to look at the news and wait for the gigafactory conference and see the stock green by the end of the day.

Yep, statistically Wednesday is the downer day, and Tuesdays are the big mover days. Most of the largest one-day gains of the last year happened on a Tuesday, just like yesterday. If you want to datamine for Monday holidays, be my guest, but it still holds that the big moves tend to happen on Tuesday, and if you were to miss those big moves you'd likely have very poor returns. Personally, I would not want to miss any Tesla Tuesday.

 

[Jack6591]

Yep, statistically Wednesday is the downer day, and Tuesdays are the big mover days. Most of the largest one-day gains of the last year happened on a Tuesday, just like yesterday. If you want to datamine for Monday holidays, be my guest, but it still holds that the big moves tend to happen on Tuesday, and if you were to miss those big moves you'd likely have very poor returns. Personally, I would not want to miss any Tesla Tuesday.

I have always been convinced that TSLA price action was driven by media catalysts. I wonder what a database of news releases graphed against price action would look like. Interestingly, we could compare the effectiveness of FUD to positive news items.

 

[Renaud]

And yet another piece of "grand" journalism here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12866305/1/bmws-electric-car-crushes-tesla-on-the-sales-charts.html

So as media catalyst today is GF...
7 PM ET for the event!
I guess today it will be fairly flat as people are waiting for the official announcement, and if it's a good deal for TM, then we can have a little run? Time for weeklies?

 

[jhm]

Yeah, I think trading will be tentative today in anticpation of the Gigafactory announcement. I am hopeful that promising details will come to light. How clear is the permit path? How quickly will construction go? And of course, what has NV promised? Such details will drive discussion and stock price for quite a while, but sadly they will not be available to us during trading today.

 

[Chickenlittle]

And yet another piece of "grand" journalism here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12866305/1/bmws-electric-car-crushes-tesla-on-the-sales-charts.html

So as media catalyst today is GF...
7 PM ET for the event!
I guess today it will be fairly flat as people are waiting for the official announcement, and if it's a good deal for TM, then we can have a little run? Time for weeklies?

Collapse of sales. What BS. Factory closed half the month. Is anyone surprised deliveries down that month. More FUD. The new seeking alpha....the street

 

[Blip]

And yet another piece of "grand" journalism here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12866305/1/bmws-electric-car-crushes-tesla-on-the-sales-charts.html

The numbers are "correct" for Norway. It is also correct that Tesla sales increased by 2180% in July (and 46328% YTD July), but decreased from July to August by 1,1%. No Teslas were "sold" in June :scared:, so the increase from June to July should be infinite... Point is: Tesla ships in bulks.

Source: Bilsalget - Ofv AS (Google Translated)

 

[hobbes]

Pre-market slowly inching up,
284.00

2.81 (1.00%) 8:54AM EDT

 

[dalalsid]

And yet another piece of "grand" journalism here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12866305/1/bmws-electric-car-crushes-tesla-on-the-sales-charts.html

So as media catalyst today is GF...
7 PM ET for the event!
I guess today it will be fairly flat as people are waiting for the official announcement, and if it's a good deal for TM, then we can have a little run? Time for weeklies?

The guy who wrote this is known to write BS including how the Dodge Charger will kill Tesla and he also regularly spams other Tesla articles with his rubbish.

 

[jhm]

I have always been convinced that TSLA price action was driven by media catalysts. I wonder what a database of news releases graphed against price action would look like. Interestingly, we could compare the effectiveness of FUD to positive news items.

It's challenging to try to develop good metrics for media activity. Even if you had a reliable FUDometer, you would have to contend with uncertain causality. Does FUD cause price movements, or is FUD a response to price movements, or are there other causes that impact both the intensity of FUD and prices?

My bias is to see FUD as a response to price movements and not so much as a cause of price movements. Clearly those who create FUD are trying to move the price, and the propagandists are in the best position to measure the impact of their campaigns. However, they are motivated by what they see in recent trading. For maximum effect they wait for the most vulnerable moments to attack. Or if they are backed into a wall, they will lash out, though FUD in times of desperation is least likely to be effective. So it is important to think about the immediate trading context and how that motivates FUD and to cosine the strength of FUD content. This latter point is hardest to quantify so as to make statistical analysis possible.

So consider our present situation. Recent trading is quite bullish with a massive price run up, meanwhile the quality of FUD content is particularly weak. This suggests that bears are acting out of desperation from a position of weakness. Will this campaign succeed? Certainly a little pullback for consolidation is in order, but flimsy propaganda will not stop this train.

 

[chickensevil]

And yet another piece of "grand" journalism here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12866305/1/bmws-electric-car-crushes-tesla-on-the-sales-charts.html

So as media catalyst today is GF...
7 PM ET for the event!
I guess today it will be fairly flat as people are waiting for the official announcement, and if it's a good deal for TM, then we can have a little run? Time for weeklies?

Just FYI, look at the author, he used to write on Seeking Alpha and has moved on to the Street... I wonder why that is???

He is a super short authors that has been slamming Tesla since forever... he has even written quite a few "X will be the death of Tesla" type articles... it is quite sad, really.

 

[Robert.Boston]

The guy who wrote this is known to write BS including how the Dodge Charger will kill Tesla and he also regularly spams other Tesla articles with his rubbish.

Putting "Tesla" in an article's title probably increases clicks by an order of magnitude. Click bait.

 

[chickensevil]

So consider our present situation. Recent trading is quite bullish with a massive price run up, meanwhile the quality of FUD content is particularly weak. This suggests that bears are acting out of desperation from a position of weakness. Will this campaign succeed? Certainly a little pullback for consolidation is in order, but flimsy propaganda will not stop this train.

You know, I really want to get a hold of some of the software I have access to, that is used for document parsing, correlation, and graphing and such... point it at google news and give it some choice keywords like "Tesla Motors", "TSLA", etc. I think it would be interesting to see what it churns out. Ah the power of big data

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wow, a new note from Trip Chowhdry of Global Equities Research, as quoted by Barron"s - we are talking about specific dates for announcing locations for GF #2 and #3 - am I dreaming??? If he is spilling out information that will be officially announced at today's press event in Nevada, the stock will explode tomorrow:

We expect the location of GigaFactory-2 to be decided by December’ 2014 and the location of GigaFactory-3 to be decided by June’ 2014
We think that the location of GigaFactory-2 may be Texas and the location of GigaFactory-3 may be New Mexico. Selection of Reno Nevada rules out California for GigaFactory, as in this situation Geographical risk gets highly concentrated
Construction of GigaFactory-1, GigaFactory-2 and GigaFactory-3 is instrumental in creating a completely new Industry
The days of one-size battery fits all is over and it gets replaced by highly specialized batteries – Battery Categorization:

• Terrestrial- stationary Batteries
• Terrestrial- in-motion Batteries
• In-Air/Orbital Batteries
• Aquatic/Marine Batteries

Each one of the above batteries have different trade-offs in Power Density, Energy Density and Weight. This could give rise to new inventions in Material Science, which could in long term provide significant business opportunities to Tesla

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-reno-then-we-take/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
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