Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[ggies07]

Wow, a new note from Trip Chowhdry of Global Equities Research, as quoted by Barron"s - we are talking about specific dates for announcing locations for GF #2 and #3 - am I dreaming??? If he is spilling out information that will be officially announced at today's press event in Nevada, the stock will explode tomorrow:

We expect the location of GigaFactory-2 to be decided by December’ 2014 and the location of GigaFactory-3 to be decided by June’ 2014
We think that the location of GigaFactory-2 may be Texas and the location of GigaFactory-3 may be New Mexico. Selection of Reno Nevada rules out California for GigaFactory, as in this situation Geographical risk gets highly concentrated
Construction of GigaFactory-1, GigaFactory-2 and GigaFactory-3 is instrumental in creating a completely new Industry
The days of one-size battery fits all is over and it gets replaced by highly specialized batteries – Battery Categorization:

• Terrestrial- stationary Batteries
• Terrestrial- in-motion Batteries
• In-Air/Orbital Batteries
• Aquatic/Marine Batteries

Each one of the above batteries have different trade-offs in Power Density, Energy Density and Weight. This could give rise to new inventions in Material Science, which could in long term provide significant business opportunities to Tesla

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-reno-then-we-take/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
​

sweet sassy molassy!

 

[Joel]

Wow, a new note from Trip Chowhdry of Global Equities Research, as quoted by Barron"s - we are talking about specific dates for announcing locations for GF #2 and #3 - am I dreaming??? If he is spilling out information that will be officially announced at today's press event in Nevada, the stock will explode tomorrow:

We expect the location of GigaFactory-2 to be decided by December’ 2014 and the location of GigaFactory-3 to be decided by June’ 2014
We think that the location of GigaFactory-2 may be Texas and the location of GigaFactory-3 may be New Mexico. Selection of Reno Nevada rules out California for GigaFactory, as in this situation Geographical risk gets highly concentrated
Construction of GigaFactory-1, GigaFactory-2 and GigaFactory-3 is instrumental in creating a completely new Industry
The days of one-size battery fits all is over and it gets replaced by highly specialized batteries – Battery Categorization:

• Terrestrial- stationary Batteries
• Terrestrial- in-motion Batteries
• In-Air/Orbital Batteries
• Aquatic/Marine Batteries

Each one of the above batteries have different trade-offs in Power Density, Energy Density and Weight. This could give rise to new inventions in Material Science, which could in long term provide significant business opportunities to Tesla

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-reno-then-we-take/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
​

Is that a typo in the article? Didn't June 2014 pass without a Gigafactory #3 announcement? Or is it June 2015?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Is that a typo in the article? Didn't June 2014 pass without a Gigafactory #3 announcement? Or is it June 2015?

yes, obviously a typo. Whoever posted it was probably as incredulous as I am, and could don think straight...

Lump posted on GF thread that Elon will be at the press event and will be interviewed by CNBC afterwards...

C'mon, can somebody give it a sanity check and say why this could not be true???

 

[Gerardf]

Tesla Needs $3B in Tax Breaks for New Battery Factory | Fox Business

 

[chickensevil]

Wow, a new note from Trip Chowhdry of Global Equities Research, as quoted by Barron"s - we are talking about specific dates for announcing locations for GF #2 and #3 - am I dreaming??? If he is spilling out information that will be officially announced at today's press event in Nevada, the stock will explode tomorrow:

We expect the location of GigaFactory-2 to be decided by December’ 2014 and the location of GigaFactory-3 to be decided by June’ 2014
We think that the location of GigaFactory-2 may be Texas and the location of GigaFactory-3 may be New Mexico. Selection of Reno Nevada rules out California for GigaFactory, as in this situation Geographical risk gets highly concentrated
Construction of GigaFactory-1, GigaFactory-2 and GigaFactory-3 is instrumental in creating a completely new Industry
The days of one-size battery fits all is over and it gets replaced by highly specialized batteries – Battery Categorization:

• Terrestrial- stationary Batteries
• Terrestrial- in-motion Batteries
• In-Air/Orbital Batteries
• Aquatic/Marine Batteries

Each one of the above batteries have different trade-offs in Power Density, Energy Density and Weight. This could give rise to new inventions in Material Science, which could in long term provide significant business opportunities to Tesla

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-reno-then-we-take/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
​

This had better be true because I am saving up for a Tesla House, Tesla Train, Tesla Boat, Tesla Submarine and even my vary own Tesla Satellite!

But seriously, this is so totally and incredibly awesome that I am off in a cloud right now! The new industrial revolution!!!

 

[JRod0802]

"We think that the location of GigaFactory-2 may be Texas and the location of GigaFactory-3 may be New Mexico."

Wouldn't China make more sense for GigaFactory-2? I believe Elon recently said (I think during the Q2 conference call) that demand would be 40% US, 40% China, 20% Europe. So one would think that one car factory and one GigaFactory should be in US, and the next car factory and the next GigaFactory should be in China. Especially due to China's very high tax on cars not made in-country.

 

[dmckinstry]

Tesla Needs $3B in Tax Breaks for New Battery Factory | Fox Business

Yep. Another Fox news story. Why do they assume that all of the $3B will come from state taxes? They can't possibly imagine any other source?
And they spout off about the "Hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars have supported Tesla throughout its time as a publicly-traded company."

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wouldn't China make more sense for GigaFactory-2? I believe Elon recently said (I think during the Q2 conference call) that demand would be 40% US, 40% China, 20% Europe. So one would think that one car factory and one GigaFactory should be in US, and the next car factory and the next GigaFactory should be in China. Especially due to China's very high tax on cars not made in-country.

The note does not say that GF#2 and #3 will necessarily be in US. This also can be about stationary storage, not automobiles. Hello Tesla Energy ???

 

[Muskol]

yes, obviously a typo. Whoever posted it was probably as incredulous as I am, and could don think straight...

Lump posted on GF thread that Elon will be at the press event and will be interviewed by CNBC afterwards...

C'mon, can somebody give it a sanity check and say why this could not be true???

IMO I would think some proof of concept is in order before committing another 8-10 bill on Gigafactories 2 and 3! I do think it's plausible that they may select future sites, thanks to concessions and red tape cleared through the bidding process for site 1, but it would simply be land acquisition and permits. Those sites would be mothballed until site #1 is proven and optimized, so that lessons learned could be applied to future iterations.

 

[Renaud]

Yep. Another Fox news story. Why do they assume that all of the $3B will come from state taxes? They can't possibly imagine any other source?
And they spout off about the "Hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars have supported Tesla throughout its time as a publicly-traded company."

Her theory is sort of GF costs 5 Billions, they've raised 2, so they need another three, isn't it? And it can only come from tax breaks as they "burn" cash. Does she know that Japanese company, Panasonic?
It drives me nut to read this kind of BS:

"Though Musk is big on talking about the free-market, his firm needs a lot of taxpayer help to survive."
Can someone remind her a certain loan that TM paid back?
And that lady is Senior Stocks Editor. Oh my...

 

[ckessel]

Wow, a new note from Trip Chowhdry of Global Equities Research, as quoted by Barron"s - we are talking about specific dates for announcing locations for GF #2 and #3 - am I dreaming??? If he is spilling out information that will be officially announced at today's press event in Nevada, the stock will explode tomorrow:

It reads to me like just idle speculation based on the fact Tesla has previously stated they'd break ground in more than one place. To actually fully build out more Gigafactories, they'd have to line up a bunch of partners and suppliers and so forth. Tesla got enough cash to fund one GF initially and while they've talked about multiple ground breaking to mitigate risks of delay, I really doubt Tesla can afford to fully build out multiple Gigfactories simultaneously at this particular point in time.

Now, fast forward 18 months and Tesla is shipping at a 100,000+ run rate and the X is winning every award imaginable, and we'll have a different story. Tesla will have some major proof that multiple GFs really need to be built.

 

[Renaud]

This had better be true because I am saving up for a Tesla House, Tesla Train, Tesla Boat, Tesla Submarine and even my vary own Tesla Satellite!

But seriously, this is so totally and incredibly awesome that I am off in a cloud right now! The new industrial revolution!!!

Would this be a good excuse to buy a few calls, like, let's say 290's expiring tomorrow at 90cts? Just a bit of gambling here you know ;-)

 

[eepic]

It reads to me like just idle speculation based on the fact Tesla has previously stated they'd break ground in more than one place. To actually fully build out more Gigafactories, they'd have to line up a bunch of partners and suppliers and so forth. Tesla got enough cash to fund one GF initially and while they've talked about multiple ground breaking to mitigate risks of delay, I really doubt Tesla can afford to fully build out multiple Gigfactories simultaneously at this particular point in time.

Now, fast forward 18 months and Tesla is shipping at a 100,000+ run rate and the X is winning every award imaginable, and we'll have a different story. Tesla will have some major proof that multiple GFs really need to be built.

+1 on this. They need to be able to present near-certainty case to partners and suppliers to have them commit to a gigafactory. It's very unlikely significant construction will begin on GF2/GF3 until GF1 is close to production (that said, I do think they'll buy the land and do some prelim groundbreaking). It's the rational business decision to not overcommit too soon. Case in point, their closest and largest partner Panasonic and justify to their shareholders the full commitment to GF1 yet and have to fund it in pieces.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Would this be a good excuse to buy a few calls, like, let's say 290's expiring tomorrow at 60cts? Just a bit of gambling here you know ;-)

I don't know, maybe, maybe not, but the unbridled enthusiasm on display lately makes me a little uncomfortable. Buying weeklies during a frenzy may make you money, but I know that drunken feeling. Didn't do me any good.

I know you said "gambling", and I do it too with tiny amounts from time to time. This isn't as much addressed to you, as it is a more general observation that maybe we should lower the temperature a bit.

 

[Muskol]

Would this be a good excuse to buy a few calls, like, let's say 290's expiring tomorrow at 60cts? Just a bit of gambling here you know ;-)

This is just my speculative opinion, but unless there is a juicy tidbit of info that catches everyone by surprise tonight at the presser, I don't think there'll be a large enough pop that would make those worthwhile, perhaps some 'selling on the news' as well.

That's my gut feeling, and I should disclose I may have some unconscious bias because I sold all my LEAPS on Tuesday.

 

[Renaud]

I don't know, maybe, maybe not, but the unbridled enthusiasm on display lately makes me a little uncomfortable. Buying weeklies during a frenzy may make you money, but I know that drunken feeling. Didn't do me any good.

I know you said "gambling", and I do it too with tiny amounts from time to time. This isn't as much addressed to you, as it is a more general observation that maybe we should lower the temperature a bit.

+1
It's purely gambling and we should indeed lower the temp. a bit.
As Muskol writes, if nothing extraordinary is anounced, sell on the news might happen as well. Feels like an ER!
ATH, news on the way: buying puts would make sense as well!!!

 

[AlMc]

Would this be a good excuse to buy a few calls, like, let's say 290's expiring tomorrow at 90cts? Just a bit of gambling here you know ;-)

Just my thought. Was buying yesterday and early today..average price 60 cents. I did not want to be greedy so I sold half at $1.10.....probably should have held on to them



And I agree that this in/out on weeklies IS gambling. I could have just as easily seen the options go worthless. I limit this type of purchase to less than 1% of my total holdings.
It is not the type of investment you should 'bet the farm on'.

 

[Muskol]

I don't know, maybe, maybe not, but the unbridled enthusiasm on display lately makes me a little uncomfortable. Buying weeklies during a frenzy may make you money, but I know that drunken feeling. Didn't do me any good.

I know you said "gambling", and I do it too with tiny amounts from time to time. This isn't as much addressed to you, as it is a more general observation that maybe we should lower the temperature a bit.

I'm with you. I'm getting déjà vu to the last week of February when the Adam Jonas report sent us flying high to 265. There was impending Gigafactory news (Elon said on the Q4 call a week earlier that he would hold a dedicated call for the Gigafactory next week). As far as I remember that call never happened, but they issued a release with the gigafactory facts and figures, the market shrugged for the most part, and TSLA cooled off from there until May.

I got caught in the frenzy and learned a lesson. This time may in fact turn out differently, who knows, but it's eerily similar to me.

 

[hockeythug]

Her theory is sort of GF costs 5 Billions, they've raised 2, so they need another three, isn't it? And it can only come from tax breaks as they "burn" cash. Does she know that Japanese company, Panasonic?
It drives me nut to read this kind of BS:

"Though Musk is big on talking about the free-market, his firm needs a lot of taxpayer help to survive."
Can someone remind her a certain loan that TM paid back?
And that lady is Senior Stocks Editor. Oh my...

Besides the early paid back DOE loan and the ZEV credits I hardly call the the $7,500 tax credit "a lot of taxpayer help".

 

[Chickenlittle]

I'm with you. I'm getting déjà vu to the last week of February when the Adam Jonas repost sent us flying high to 265. There was impending Gigafactory news (Elon said on the Q4 call a week earlier that he would hold a dedicated call for the Gigafactory next week). As far as I remember that call never happened, but they issued a release with the gigafactory facts and figures, the market shrugged for the most part, and TSLA cooled off from there until May.

I got caught in the frenzy and learned a lesson. This time may in fact turn out differently, who knows, but it's eerily similar to me.

If you truly learned lesson, you probably bought calls back 2 months ago and I congratulate you.