Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[vgrinshpun]

It reads to me like just idle speculation based on the fact Tesla has previously stated they'd break ground in more than one place. To actually fully build out more Gigafactories, they'd have to line up a bunch of partners and suppliers and so forth. Tesla got enough cash to fund one GF initially and while they've talked about multiple ground breaking to mitigate risks of delay, I really doubt Tesla can afford to fully build out multiple Gigfactories simultaneously at this particular point in time.

Now, fast forward 18 months and Tesla is shipping at a 100,000+ run rate and the X is winning every award imaginable, and we'll have a different story. Tesla will have some major proof that multiple GFs really need to be built.

Thank you Ckessel for voice of reason! I did have similar thoughts as well, and yet, when I think about JB Straubel, talking about stationary storage, saying that it comes faster than anybody thinks, and saying that we need to think bigger... Or Elon saying that they are not showing all their cards, and R&D expenses do not look as bad as it apears because there are things you do not know about...

Do not take me wrong, I do not think that they will jump to building everything at once, but they might lay out a bigger coherent picture for the first time publically, and tomorrow's event would be a good time to do it. If they talk specifics about GF #2 and #3, that would be a huge leap from the hints they were giving over some time, and would be huge boost to TSLA, which, incidentally, they will need if there are thoughts about raising more money...

 

[Muskol]

If you truly learned lesson, you probably bought calls back 2 months ago and I congratulate you.

Thank you, proud to say I did! I doubled my position the day after the Q1 call (at around 185 level) and converted the modest amount of stock I had to Jan15 235 and 250 calls.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Just my thought. Was buying yesterday and early today..average price 60 cents. I did not want to be greedy so I sold half at $1.10.....probably should have held on to them



And I agree that this in/out on weeklies IS gambling. I could have just as easily seen the options go worthless. I limit this type of purchase to less than 1% of my total holdings.
It is not the type of investment you should 'bet the farm on'.

I am playing weeklies for a while now, but in order to reduce risk (which allows me to make much bigger bets) I avoid OTM calls, except when selling them.

For this week I sold $300 covered calls at $0.36, and then bought them back at $0.18 yesterday afternoon when the news aboug GF press event came out. For this week I also hold $265-270 spreads (delayed construction) with cost basis of $1.50, and $275-280 spreads with cost basis $3.55. I also bought $272.5 weekly calls at $11.75.

I believe that we will close this week higher than $285, and if it comes to pass, I will collect $5 from each spread, and small profit from the $272.5 calls. If, however, there will be some new material information during the GF press event, and stock will really move tomorrow, I could collect sizable gains from my $272.5 calls.

 

[AlMc]

I am playing weeklies for a while now, but in order to reduce risk (which allows me to make much bigger bets) I avoid OTM calls, except when selling them.

For this week I sold $300 covered calls at $0.36, and then bought them back at $0.18 yesterday afternoon when the news aboug GF press event came out. For this week I also hold $265-270 spreads (delayed construction) with cost basis of $1.50, and $275-280 spreads with cost basis $3.55. I also bought $272.5 weekly calls at $11.75.

I believe that we will close this week higher than $285, and if it comes to pass, I will collect $5 from each spread, and small profit from the $272.5 calls. If, however, there will be some new material information during the GF press event, and stock will really move tomorrow, I could collect sizable gains from my $272.5 calls.

That is great advice/way to invest to lessen risk.

 

[dalalsid]

Wow, a new note from Trip Chowhdry of Global Equities Research, as quoted by Barron"s - we are talking about specific dates for announcing locations for GF #2 and #3 - am I dreaming??? If he is spilling out information that will be officially announced at today's press event in Nevada, the stock will explode tomorrow:

We expect the location of GigaFactory-2 to be decided by December’ 2014 and the location of GigaFactory-3 to be decided by June’ 2014
We think that the location of GigaFactory-2 may be Texas and the location of GigaFactory-3 may be New Mexico. Selection of Reno Nevada rules out California for GigaFactory, as in this situation Geographical risk gets highly concentrated
Construction of GigaFactory-1, GigaFactory-2 and GigaFactory-3 is instrumental in creating a completely new Industry
The days of one-size battery fits all is over and it gets replaced by highly specialized batteries – Battery Categorization:

• Terrestrial- stationary Batteries
• Terrestrial- in-motion Batteries
• In-Air/Orbital Batteries
• Aquatic/Marine Batteries

Each one of the above batteries have different trade-offs in Power Density, Energy Density and Weight. This could give rise to new inventions in Material Science, which could in long term provide significant business opportunities to Tesla

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-reno-then-we-take/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
​

Trip is on a trip...

 

[vgrinshpun]

That is great advice/way to invest to lessen risk.

I like spreads for the weeklies because collapse of the time value, provided that they are ITM, works to my favor. So I actually collect full delta between the high/low leg at the expiration. I also learned that I do not need to sell the spreads on Friday if they are ITM, I just let them be exercised/assigned. Since it entails buying and than selling stock at a premium, it does not require that I have enough cash/margin to buy the stock. The commissions for buying and selling the stock are also much lower than for calls...

 

[austinEV]

Thank you Ckessel for voice of reason! I did have similar thoughts as well, and yet, when I think about JB Straubel, talking about stationary storage, saying that it comes faster than anybody thinks, and saying that we need to think bigger... Or Elon saying that they are not showing all their cards, and R&D expenses do not look as bad as it apears because there are things you do not know about...

Do not take me wrong, I do not think that they will jump to building everything at once, but they might lay out a bigger coherent picture for the first time publically, and tomorrow's event would be a good time to do it. If they talk specifics about GF #2 and #3, that would be a huge leap from the hints they were giving over some time, and would be huge boost to TSLA, which, incidentally, they will need if there are thoughts about raising more money...

+1. It isn't like they have 2 or 3 Gigafactory building teams. They are scrambling for 1. This is a much harder task than we give credit for. My #1 (new) near term risk factor is botched or late GF buildout, which will be a 3 year endeavor in the best case. No matter how much we want it to be, the buildout will not be perfect, missing a few dates for instance. Plus after building a GF#1, they will then and only then really be sure they know what they are doing. GF2 and 3 would then benefit from the lessons learned.

 

[jhm]

Speaking of marine batteries, consider the possibility of superchraging ferries. So when you take the ferry from Norway to Demark, not only can you eat, gamble, and otherwise get drunk, but you can charge your Model S too. Furthermore, the batteries can replace on board generators to supply all the power needed in the cabin. Supercharging would also be available at the port to charge the ferry and any vehicles in waiting. In principle the ferry operator could save enough money on cabin power to pay for the system. Moreover, it would be a convenience to EV owners.

 

[mershaw2001]

Speaking of marine batteries, consider the possibility of superchraging ferries. So when you take the ferry from Norway to Demark, not only can you eat, gamble, and otherwise get drunk, but you can charge your Model S too.

Wow I am living in the wrong country.

 

[chickensevil]

Ok, what the crap just happened? we just shot up 2$ in the last 10 minutes... 287.40$ right now.

 

[FluxCap]

Rumors of GF #2 and #3 I think. I'm predicting a close around 290 today, followed by 294 open tomorrow. Just a guess.

 

[ecarfan]

It reads to me like just idle speculation based on the fact Tesla has previously stated they'd break ground in more than one place. To actually fully build out more Gigafactories, they'd have to line up a bunch of partners and suppliers and so forth. Tesla got enough cash to fund one GF initially and while they've talked about multiple ground breaking to mitigate risks of delay, I really doubt Tesla can afford to fully build out multiple Gigfactories simultaneously...

I agree, that article is just speculation. I don't take it seriously.

I think the next GF will be started in less than two years and located in China. After that another GF will be started in the southwest US. Then one in Europe.

 

[KenN]

There we go ... new all time high.

 

[chickensevil]

Rumors of GF #2 and #3 I think. I'm predicting a close around 290 today, followed by 294 open tomorrow. Just a guess.

Seems a bit delayed from when the news broke here... do we really have that good of a crowdsource going on that we spot this before even the bots are able to?

I am not at all complaining, my options are VERY green right now, just making sure we didn't miss something else important.

 

[FluxCap]

Seems a bit delayed from when the news broke here... do we really have that good of a crowdsource going on that we spot this before even the bots are able to?

I am not at all complaining, my options are VERY green right now, just making sure we didn't miss something else important.

Yes, sometimes we definitely do.

Honestly, I also think that a sizeable chunk of the market literally did not believe the GigaFactory was a real thing that was for sure going to happen. Tonight's upcoming announcement, which is now being covered on CNBC and elsewhere, is the "seeing is believing" for them. Another reason why Tesla, and Teslamotorsclub.com, are truly wonderful and once-in-a-lifetime opportunities for us.

 

[chickensevil]

I mean, look at that volume spike! I am sure Google is still trying to resolve and count the volume so that will likely go up a bit more. This is crazy! (289.00 now btw)

 

[uselesslogin]

I mean, look at that volume spike! I am sure Google is still trying to resolve and count the volume so that will likely go up a bit more. This is crazy! (289.00 now btw)

Volume on Google is 20 minutes delayed I think.

 

[Joel]

Ok, what the crap just happened? we just shot up 2$ in the last 10 minutes... 287.40$ right now.

We always find out the real news 24 to 48 hours later. Call me cynical, but do you believe the 5.5% jump on Monday was really about the analyst report? Or do you believe investment firms jumped on the Gigafactory information? It takes a lot of buying to move TSLA 5.5%. I find it difficult to believe that an analyst at Stifel moved the stock 5.5% I do not find it a coincidence that the Gigafactory press conference was 48 hours after the jump. People knew. And people bought.

The Law of Inefficient Markets teaches us that the individual investors learn information after Wall Street profits.

 

[FredTMC]

I mean, look at that volume spike! I am sure Google is still trying to resolve and count the volume so that will likely go up a bit more. This is crazy! (289.00 now btw)
View attachment 58407

nice spike there after consolidating around 285 midday. Here comes 290 attempt.

V much looking forward to press conf and stock reaction AH and mañana.

No no idea which direction it'll go.

 

[hockeythug]

People finally realizing that Tesla wasn't joking about building a battery factory?