Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FredTMC]

here you go http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000317396

well at least Adam Jonas was back to being 100% positive today. No evidence today of prior bi-polar disorder. Maybe he's back on his meds.

 

[brianman]

I must say I am very surprised of todays price action

Elon announces something. Stock swings 5+% in one direction. Then it's crazy for a couple days. Then it resumes it's normal pricing after some digestion by the larger market.

Situation normal, IMO.

 

[chickensevil]

One extra thing of interest is that as of right now, we have still managed to hold the 235 level which is sticking with the 50% pull back, I think that is going to continue to be a decent level of support for the stock. It might just be that we hang out down here until the 200SMA catches up with us or some news drags us back out of the hole.

 

[Bunky]

Is the consensus that the 'D' and Autopilot were the cards that Elon wasn't showing or is that something else to come?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Here is a note from him this morning:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...y+Says;+The+Cars+are+Learning.../9902479.html

Is Jonas bi-polar?

Thanks for the linkt to the note!
I love the "+"pole this time:
"The analyst maintained an Overweight price target of $320 on Tesla, reiterating his view that Tesla is world's most important car company."

 

[hershey101]

We are touching the 200-day SMA on all 3 indicies, S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ. I would expect that we bounce back up over the next week and bring TSLA with it.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Elon announces something. Stock swings 5+% in one direction. Then it's crazy for a couple days. Then it resumes it's normal pricing after some digestion by the larger market.

Situation normal, IMO.

He didn't just announce "something" though, he announced large improvements exceeding expectation, which surely will drive demand significantly. I wrote yesterday that I think we will see $300 soon and I still think it is likely before the end of the year, the news is so good.

 

[brianman]

He didn't just announce "something" though, he announced large improvements exceeding expectation, which surely will drive demand significantly. I wrote yesterday that I think we will see $300 soon and I still think it is likely before the end of the year, the news is so good.

Right. And much of the market doesn't know how to process it yet. In this particular case they heard "we think it will be A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H or some combination of them". We got outstanding flavors of predictions D and E. People that expected A, B, C, F, G, or H are "disappointed". People that don't understand (yet) the remarkable details of the actual D and E announcements are responding with "meh". On top of that the whole market is down. In a week, some will start to see the light and the price will go up. Othere still won't understand, but they'll just follow the market like sheep in a week or two. Then another FUD article will come out again and it'll drop 2% and offer another buying opportunity. This seems to be the standard pattern for the stock market w/r/t Tesla.

For the more veteran folks in this thread, am I off the mark here?

 

[jhm]

The hardware is included. Note, however, wording under the Tech Package:

Autopilot convenience features available through software updates

Versus wording for the map updates:

Onboard maps and navigation for North America with free updates for 7 years

I interpret above distinction as meaning that Autopilot features will be available for purchase as they come out, for those who purchased Tech Package. This is really smart move. Although the hardware is included as standard, without any increase in base price, the Autopilot features will be available for purchasing at a later day. This means that when a particular suite of features becomes available TM can potentially sell them not only on cars that are built starting from the date of release of the suite of new features, but on ALL cars that were manufactured starting in October 2014.

This is the way for TM to recoup money which are currently "lost" because they do not charge anything for the hardware. Very, very smart.

Very cool. So you're suggesting they will be selling apps for your car, apps that add autopilot or other performance features? Software subscription model, perhaps. I wonder if they will allow third-party apps and open up a whole ecosystem.

One advantage here is that this could improve resale value relative to what the previous owner put into it. So maybe one owner doesn't subscribe to the autopilot app for $100/year, but the next owner wants this. Not problem. The hardware is there, and the new owner downloads the app and starts making payments to Tesla.

The subscription model allows the car, hardware, to be sold at a lower front end cost. If you consider, the monthly money you're saving on gas, it's easy to pay a small subscription. This approach could be well suited for the Model 3.

 

[Citizen-T]

So, forgive me for the distraction, but where did we end up with Q3 delivery expectations? I sold off all my puts now and I'm thinking about converting them to LEAPs but don't want to jump in front of the train if Q3 is underwhelming. I know there was some concern that there might be a slight miss.

 

[AlMc]

So, forgive me for the distraction, but where did we end up with Q3 delivery expectations? I sold off all my puts now and I'm thinking about converting them to LEAPs but don't want to jump in front of the train if Q3 is underwhelming. I know there was some concern that there might be a slight miss.

Rumor. but I think from a good source: We just make delivery guidance ( 7,800 ) and maybe just miss production guidance ( 9,000 ). I am not overly optimistic about Q3. Unless our recent drop continues down to the 200 DMA OR we get some type of reveal of the beta/production X just before or after the CC.

 

[ckessel]

I'm tremendously curious what the reaction was in conference rooms of the other luxury performance car manufacturers...changes of underwear might have been required.

 

[Citizen-T]

Rumor. but I think from a good source: We just make delivery guidance ( 7,800 ) and maybe just miss production guidance ( 9,000 ). I am not overly optimistic about Q3. Unless our recent drop continues down to the 200 DMA OR we get some type of reveal of the beta/production X just before or after the CC.

Yeah, that sounds like we'll take a another hit. So, maybe play something short-term and look for cheap LEAPs after the earnings report...

 

[AlMc]

Yeah, that sounds like we'll take a another hit. So, maybe play something short-term and look for cheap LEAPs after the earnings report...

That is my exact strategy......but at times my strategy does not work!:wink:

 

[vgrinshpun]

I'm tremendously curious what the reaction was in conference rooms of the other luxury performance car manufacturers...changes of underwear might have been required.

Oh, don't worry, they know how to come prepared for any TM announcements by now

- - - Updated - - -

Very cool. So you're suggesting they will be selling apps for your car, apps that add autopilot or other performance features? Software subscription model, perhaps. I wonder if they will allow third-party apps and open up a whole ecosystem.

One advantage here is that this could improve resale value relative to what the previous owner put into it. So maybe one owner doesn't subscribe to the autopilot app for $100/year, but the next owner wants this. Not problem. The hardware is there, and the new owner downloads the app and starts making payments to Tesla.

The subscription model allows the car, hardware, to be sold at a lower front end cost. If you consider, the monthly money you're saving on gas, it's easy to pay a small subscription. This approach could be well suited for the Model 3.

I am not sure how they decide to play it out - as a subscription or as a one time fee at the time of release, but including the hardware in every car for free starting two weeks ago was a very shrewd move. When time comes for a new release of features, they will already have a large addressable market for them.

- - - Updated - - -

Just in case anybody is interested, here is the link for a HD version of yesterday's presentation (with some editing):

http://www.streetinsider.com/Corpor...TSLA)+Unveils+New+D+Model+S+Line/9901836.html

 

[jordy]

thanx for the link vgrinshpun . much appreciated! I believe that the increased range of 10% shouldn't be overlooked. it means Tesla will be able to continuesly improve range meaning an increase of total adressable market. I am increasing my position in Tesla every month that it is down setting aside a fixed portion of my income to buy.

 

[SteveG3]

Broken up into several clips, but Betty Liu of Bloomberg's interview with Elon after the announcement

Elon Musk: Tesla Stock Not Something I Follow Much: Video - Bloomberg


fwiw, picked up some more "crazy stupid reaction to news" shares in 240 area. keeping buying power in case we see a "crazy stupid cheap price" event (market selloff, huge over reaction to something Tesla related, etc.)

 

[austinEV]

Right. And much of the market doesn't know how to process it yet. In this particular case they heard "we think it will be A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H or some combination of them". We got outstanding flavors of predictions D and E. People that expected A, B, C, F, G, or H are "disappointed". People that don't understand (yet) the remarkable details of the actual D and E announcements are responding with "meh". On top of that the whole market is down. In a week, some will start to see the light and the price will go up. Othere still won't understand, but they'll just follow the market like sheep in a week or two. Then another FUD article will come out again and it'll drop 2% and offer another buying opportunity. This seems to be the standard pattern for the stock market w/r/t Tesla.

For the more veteran folks in this thread, am I off the mark here?

I think you have it exactly. Also, I can cross off "sell weekly options!" from my afternoon to-do list, so I have that going for me.

 

[jhm]

I'm tremendously curious what the reaction was in conference rooms of the other luxury performance car manufacturers...changes of underwear might have been required.

Depends.

 

[Zaxxon]

Depends.

Bazinga!