Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[brianman]

I'd just like to thank Tesla Motors for upgrading the Model S line to make the original Model S vehicles almost seem obsolete, after the Model S made the rest of the industry obsolete nearly 2 years ago.

And I'd like to thank the retarded analysts that are somehow seeing this as a bad thing, allowing one of the best buying opportunities for TSLA stock and options that I can remember.

(Regarding my signature)
I expressly consent that any third party publication can quote me on the above.

 

[Norbert]

I'd just like to thank Tesla Motors for upgrading the Model S line to make the original Model S vehicles almost seem obsolete, after the Model S made the rest of the industry obsolete nearly 2 years ago.

And I'd like to thank the retarded analysts that are somehow seeing this as a bad thing, allowing one of the best buying opportunities for TSLA stock and options that I can remember.

(Regarding my signature)
I expressly consent that any third party publication can quote me on the above.

I doubt anyone will quote you on that, as it's not easy to tell if it is sarcasm, or not.

 

[jhm]

Also in a more general sense: if a company stopped innovating because "it doesn't matter, we are production constrained anyway and sold out for the foreseeable future" I'd dump all my shares in a heartbeat.

If all goes right, Tesla will be production constrained for at least the next 10 years! That's how you double every 18 months. When you step on the accelerator, you feel the g force pressing you back into your seat. That's the kind of supply constraint you always want.

 

[Todd Burch]

Today, my wallet got much lighter as my money flowed into TSLA. Analysts are complete morons!

 

[InTheShadows]

Astonishing to say the least. I bought more March calls today.

There was some interesting price action at $242 for about an hour today.

 

[Thumper]

Bought more, missed the bottom though. Rats

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Astonishing to say the least. I bought more March calls today.

There was some interesting price action at $242 for about an hour today.

Wow what a slide! I initially predicted a "sell on the news" scenario, which is what played out today. However, I thought last night's event would have satisfied the markets generally. I was wrong to have had that much faith.

The "market" generally (bots, traders, analysts) still does not understand Tesla. That is my takeaway.

I think those who bought in today will see some steady gains in the coming months.

 

[Causalien]

Wow what a slide! I initially predicted a "sell on the news" scenario, which is what played out today. However, I thought last night's event would have satisfied the markets generally. I was wrong to have had that much faith.

The "market" generally (bots, traders, analysts) still does not understand Tesla. That is my takeaway.

I think those who bought in today will see some steady gains in the coming months.

a drop of this magnitude is equivalent to the first fire. When a drop % does not correspond to the news that caused the drop, I put my money on the line. Good luck to all.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Wow what a slide! I initially predicted a "sell on the news" scenario, which is what played out today. However, I thought last night's event would have satisfied the markets generally. I was wrong to have had that much faith.

The "market" generally (bots, traders, analysts) still does not understand Tesla. That is my takeaway.

How right you are. Although I correctly predicted that Tesla's announcement would be truly significant (along with many others here), my bias to "not bet against Elon", doubled by overestimating the wisdom of the market, led me to place a big upside bet with no hedging. So I got burned big time. FluxCap and others correctly chose strangles, and I also considered it, but decided to go without buying puts.

So kids, we call this condition "greed mixed with overconfidence", otherwise known as stupidity. It is mostly not good. Let that be a lesson to all of you.

Now let's hope the stock rebounds somewhat quickly.

I think those who bought in today will see some steady gains in the coming months.

I did some of that today, so it wasn't all bad, but all in all, I botched this one.

 

[Perfectlogic]

now, can i finally say that we crashed because we were propped up on the excessive expectations from that tweet?

You can say what you want but I definately wouldn't say the $260 price level was frothy at all yesterday, and if the event should really not dissapoint anyone. The waiting list will now grow longer even with the large upcomming production ramp. Not seeing the X yesterday shouldn't have an effect on the SP, it doesn't signal a delay. If anything the expectations of the X should be affected positively as all the stuff revealed will be a part of the X too.

 

[evme]

Wow what a slide! I initially predicted a "sell on the news" scenario, which is what played out today. However, I thought last night's event would have satisfied the markets generally. I was wrong to have had that much faith.

The "market" generally (bots, traders, analysts) still does not understand Tesla. That is my takeaway.

I think those who bought in today will see some steady gains in the coming months.

The problem is the focus was a bit off. The P85D while is awesome appeals to a niche of auto enthusiasts. The market does not see that. On top of that, the media outlets do not seem to be understanding about the magnitude of the AWD system. They think it is just another AWD like every other manufacturer has.

The real news here for most people is the 85D. It gained 30 miles in range from the AWD system, and Tesla should have given that more focus. They also should have explained how an AWD system that gains range is something no one else has.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Although I correctly predicted that Tesla's announcement would be truly significant (along with many others here), my bias to "not bet against Elon", doubled by overestimating the wisdom of the market

The stupidity of the market is bittersweet, it really sucks losing money on a bet that really should have worked out, I know this feeling all too well. But if the market was completely rational trying to beat it would be futile anyway.

 

[FluxCap]

Flux is more sophisticated than I am. No doubt.

I wish! Make no mistake - I lost a lot of money in core share value today as well. My options play was a small hedge in overall portfolio, and though the strangle proved to be the right move, it didn't make up for a $20 haircut on common shares.

Still, could have been worse so glad I bought the protection I did yesterday.

Honestly I am more positive than ever about Tesla Motors prospects as a company, but I am increasingly worried about the macroeconomic environment. I think the world is waking up to oil's vulnerability as the engine of economic prosperity, and unsustainable levels of debt in the utilities and oil industry could provide some very dangerous downside to the market.

There could be "no stock spared" if the market decides to abandon ship into defensives en masse, but I can't read the tea leaves completely yet. I confess I feel about 50% as spooked as I did in 1999 and 2007. If my spook-level goes too high, I may get more defensive.

On the other hand, super low rates will not be going away anytime soon and if US T-bills aren't paying interest above inflation, people will keep putting money into stocks, goods or in the worst case scenario: stuffing it under the mattress creating deflation.

A tough week for the market and perhaps for TSLA, but a GREAT week for Tesla Motors and progress towards the solar-electric economy we are all seeking.

 

[c041v]

How right you are. Although I correctly predicted that Tesla's announcement would be truly significant (along with many others here), my bias to "not bet against Elon", doubled by overestimating the wisdom of the market, led me to place a big upside bet with no hedging. So I got burned big time. FluxCap and others correctly chose strangles, and I also considered it, but decided to go without buying puts.

So kids, we call this condition "greed mixed with overconfidence", otherwise known as stupidity. It is mostly not good. Let that be a lesson to all of you.

Now let's hope the stock rebounds somewhat quickly.


I did some of that today, so it wasn't all bad, but all in all, I botched this one.

I sensed that that it would be great news, but that the market would probably not like it. I pulled out my Dec 20 260's and brought in a couple of Oct 10 270's on the off chance I was wrong. Buying puts would have been smart, but glad I limited exposure and picked up Mar 300's near the bottom today. I can never time it right, but I am at least reacting a bit better these days.

 

[ibcs]

How right you are. Although I correctly predicted that Tesla's announcement would be truly significant (along with many others here), my bias to "not bet against Elon", doubled by overestimating the wisdom of the market, led me to place a big upside bet with no hedging. So I got burned big time. FluxCap and others correctly chose strangles, and I also considered it, but decided to go without buying puts.

So kids, we call this condition "greed mixed with overconfidence", otherwise known as stupidity. It is mostly not good. Let that be a lesson to all of you.

Now let's hope the stock rebounds somewhat quickly.


I did some of that today, so it wasn't all bad, but all in all, I botched this one.

Unfortunately, I'm with you on this one. Announcement sounded outstanding, but market reacts in strange ways. Hopefully, we will get a rebound sooner than later.

 

[SteveG3]

The problem is the focus was a bit off. The P85D while is awesome appeals to a niche of auto enthusiasts. The market does not see that. On top of that, the media outlets do not seem to be understanding about the magnitude of the AWD system. They think it is just another AWD like every other manufacturer has.

The real news here for most people is the 85D. It gained 30 miles in range from the AWD system, and Tesla should have given that more focus. They also should have explained how an AWD system that gains range is something no one else has.

New blog on TM site, spells out what's been announced, concludes with some smaller improvements Elon didn't mention on stage,

Dual Motor Model S and Autopilot | Blog | Tesla Motors

Still not totally clear on amount of range improvements. I think it's possible the rear wheel drive (existing) models may have picked up 5-10 miles in range based on the several hundred pounds Elon mentioned the car has dropped since production began (he said this on last earnings call). You then add on 10 miles of added range with "D." Eventually we'll see some EPA numbers, but I think the EPA gain on the 85D will be about 20 miles over the original 265.

 

[uselesslogin]

Still not totally clear on amount of range improvements. I think it's possible the rear wheel drive (existing) models may have picked up 5-10 miles in range based on the several hundred pounds Elon mentioned the car has dropped since production began (he said this on last earnings call). You then add on 10 miles of added range with "D." Eventually we'll see some EPA numbers, but I think the EPA gain on the 85D will be about 20 miles over the original 265.

I think we have a problem getting clear information because Elon wants to sell as many P85Ds this quarter as possible. Look at the range vs. constant speed chart on this page:
Model S Efficiency and Range | Blog | Tesla Motors

If you look at the range vs. constant speed chart you will see it is about 265 miles @65 mph. So I think it is as simple as the P85D having about 10 extra miles of range and the 85D having 30 extra miles. This only applies to highway cruising but I think city range is up in the 295 neighborhood anyway. I really don't understand the EPA process well enough to predict though.

 

[brianman]

Today, my wallet got much lighter as my money flowed into TSLA. Analysts are complete morons!

Same, except for me it went into LEAPS.

 

[TSLAopt]

Same, except for me it went into LEAPS.

I hope the auto pilot gets rolled out soon and doesn't take 6+ months like Version 6 of the software did. As soon as it gets rolled out I think the reality of how revolutionary it is will set in and will catalyze the stock price for sure...unfortunately until then mass media and the market seems to confuse Tesla's autopilot too much with driver assist features other car companies already have

has anyone heard of any official ETA of when this software will be rolled out?

 

[Maknyuzz]

Last time I posted this, I got into trouble.. But w/ today's stock price, I can't help it..

Today TSLA -20 pts.
- 8 more days like today, TSLA will be at John Lovallo's Price Target.
- 10 more days like today, TSLA will be at pre-Q12013 earnings.
- 12 more days like today, TSLA will be $0.