Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[LonghornDub]

I think today's move down is less about the substantive impact of last night's news, and more about the big players using the news as a liquidity opportunity. There are a lot of institutional investors out there who have major, major profits in TSLA, and they need high-liquidity days to take those profits. Unlike us small-time folk, the big players have to wait for very specific times to unload shares, or else they risk sending the price into a huge downward spiral (and I don't mean just a 5-10% move).

And of course, it doesn't help that the market itself is a volatile mess right now. But that goes without saying.

 

[dmunjal]

I am truly sorry, but I was right, the wallstreet and public at large just have no clue about what just happend at the "D Relaese". I have a faint hope that it will take few days for information to be absorbed and acted upon.

Imagine if Apple announced an iPhone Super with all sorts of features but they could sell no more than the same number of phones as before because of manufacturing capacity. Yes, it's cool but doesn't impact the stock.

For the stock, big news is that they increase production like they said on the last earnings call.

 

[Johan]

Imagine if Apple announced an iPhone Super with all sorts of features but they could sell no more than the same number of phones as before because of manufacturing capacity. Yes, it's cool but doesn't impact the stock.

For the stock, big news is that they increase production like they said on the last earnings call.

Except the D with high uptake VERY likely improves gross margin.

 

[TSLAopt]

Imagine if Apple announced an iPhone Super with all sorts of features but they could sell no more than the same number of phones as before because of manufacturing capacity. Yes, it's cool but doesn't impact the stock.

For the stock, big news is that they increase production like they said on the last earnings call.

this is a very good analogy, but also imagine that the new super phones have more expensive options to help increase profit margins for the phones they can sell and also help keep them the best branded phone at the cutting edge of technology.

 

[dmunjal]

Except the D with high uptake VERY likely improves gross margin.

By what amount? It's incremental at best. We're talking a few K bump in ASPs and maybe a 1-2% on gross margins?

 

[Johan]

By what amount? It's incremental at best. We're talking a few K bump in ASPs and maybe a 1-2% on gross margins?

You think increasing GM from say 25% to 27% is peanuts? It would linearly increase EPS by 8% (2 percentage units is 8% of 25 percentage units).

 

[dmunjal]

You think increasing GM from say 25% to 27% is peanuts? It would linearly increase EPS by 8% (2 percentage units is 8% of 25 percentage units).

I thought Elon said 30% was the goal already. I think a lot of this was priced in. Let's look forward to the X reveal and earnings. We'll be higher in December.

 

[Johan]

I thought Elon said 30% was the goal already. I think a lot of this was priced in. Let's look forward to the X reveal and earnings. We'll be higher in December.

On that we can agree! But you know, many small streams form a river. A few K here, $500 there and so on. The money is in the options.

 

[InTheShadows]

I agree, Wall Street hasn't realized what just happened last night. This is a whole new paradigm. I've seen comparisons to the Bat Car and Knight Rider. Fictional vehicles that were so far out of reach that made them hard to comprehend. Tesla has taken those fictional vehicles and made them reality.

Just think about it, a massively large and heavy saloon that will give an Enzo a run for its money using less energy than a Prius slowly accelerating to 60.

Then you can drive it 270 miles down the highway only touching the turn signal stalk to change lanes, or touching nothing if you are content in only one lane.

Yesterday will be a day in the history books just like Jan 9th 2007 when the first iPhone was announced.

So many people have not digested yet how massively life changing last nights event was.

And these features will be better on the Model X and even better yet on the Model 3.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Imagine if Apple announced an iPhone Super with all sorts of features but they could sell no more than the same number of phones as before because of manufacturing capacity. Yes, it's cool but doesn't impact the stock.

For the stock, big news is that they increase production like they said on the last earnings call.

TM is actually can and, according to my information, are planning to increase run rate from about 1000 cars/week currently to about 1500 by the end of Q4 2014, and then keep it at that level unitl start of production for Model X. This is quite a jump in output, so adding and sustaining 50% more incoming orders is needed. Dual motor AWD will most definitely help here.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 850

 

[Perfectlogic]

Imagine if Apple announced an iPhone Super with all sorts of features but they could sell no more than the same number of phones as before because of manufacturing capacity. Yes, it's cool but doesn't impact the stock.

For the stock, big news is that they increase production like they said on the last earnings call.

Telsa won't be production constrained forever. A significant rise in demand for the car is still worth a lot even though we won't be able to capitalize on it the next 18 months. If Tesla can sell S/X at a rate above 150k/y in 2016, which just got more likely, the stock will be much higher.

 

[Causalien]

So, in past ICE were limitedm to two motors with AWD due to the decrease in performance. Thenperformance increase in dual electric motors is actually a surprise for me cause I was still limited to my ICE thinking and I have no data on how TSLA achieved the increase in efficiency and acceleration. Which brings me to my question because Elon's "magnitude" kept echoing at the back of my mind.

What happens when you slap 4 electric motors in a ModelS?(model Q) and can we slap 6 on one?

 

[dmunjal]

Telsa won't be production constrained forever. A significant rise in demand for the car is still worth a lot even though we won't be able to capitalize on it the next 18 months. If Tesla can sell S/X at a rate above 150k/y in 2016, which just got more likely, the stock will be much higher.

I don't disagree with this. But did yesterday's announcement change anything with regards to production constraints? I'm trying to think like a Wall Street analyst and not a car geek.

 

[Johan]

So, in past ICE were limitedm to two motors with AWD due to the decrease in performance. Thenperformance increase in dual electric motors is actually a surprise for me cause I was still limited to my ICE thinking and I have no data on how TSLA achieved the increase in efficiency and acceleration. Which brings me to my question because Elon's "magnitude" kept echoing at the back of my mind.

What happens when you slap 4 electric motors in a ModelS?(model Q) and can we slap 6 on one?

Model Hex is and overkill but the Q for a supercar interests me. It doesn't have to be in-wheel motors since there seem to be issues with that (unsprung weight).

On second thought a fifth motor could power a rear fan, like this:

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

So, in past ICE were limitedm to two motors with AWD due to the decrease in performance. Thenperformance increase in dual electric motors is actually a surprise for me cause I was still limited to my ICE thinking and I have no data on how TSLA achieved the increase in efficiency and acceleration. Which brings me to my question because Elon's "magnitude" kept echoing at the back of my mind.

What happens when you slap 4 electric motors in a ModelS?(model Q) and can we slap 6 on one?

I believe it has more to do with controlling power to all 4 wheels at the millisecond time frame. Adding more electric motors would not improve things from here.

 

[Perfectlogic]

I don't disagree with this. But did yesterday's announcement change anything with regards to production constraints?

I think not, but there is already a clear cut plan in place to scale up production. Being able to sell say 20% extra cars from 2016 Q3 and onwards means a lot though, and that might be the effect of these upgrades.

 

[Johan]

Also in a more general sense: if a company stopped innovating because "it doesn't matter, we are production constrained anyway and sold out for the foreseeable future" I'd dump all my shares in a heartbeat.

 

[Causalien]

I believe it has more to do with controlling power to all 4 wheels at the millisecond time frame. Adding more electric motors would not improve things from here.

so a graph of ln(x) in performance improvement probably.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I don't disagree with this. But did yesterday's announcement change anything with regards to production constraints? I'm trying to think like a Wall Street analyst and not a car geek.

Actually, an analyst worth his dime should notice this will push ASP up... Which is pretty much the only way to increase profit when you are production constrained.

 

[Norbert]

All this helps to create mind share for the understanding that electric drivetrains are the "better" technology. This will take a while to become common understanding, but eventually help with creating the much larger demand for Model 3.

So also in that regard (mass market) it is good to bring in these innovations as early as possible.