Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Curt Renz]

I suspect the Tesla share price drop today is more reflective of the OPEC decision on oil production than any confusion about the relationship between Tesla and BMW. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are down far more than Tesla today. So are most solar stocks like SolarCity. General Motors stock is well up today with no specific General Motors news, as are airline stocks.

Keep in mind that the BMW comments earlier this week from Musk were responses to a reporter's questions and not an announcement in a press release or conference. He merely indicated that they were discussing each others product related developments. Some in the media blew this out of proportion since mention of Musk generates clicks.

OPEC has played this game before. Back in 1986 they forced down the price of oil to discourage offshore drilling projects. Now they are trying to put the frackers out of business. Just as in the past, they will likely conspire before too long to shove oil prices well up. In any event, oil prices would have to become ridiculously cheap to match electricity for low cost vehicle power.

 

[jhm]

I hope the Gigafactory is up to speed by the time OPEC lets the price of oil go back up. In the meantime, buy your Tesla shares while they're cheap.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Has OPEC ever been an effective cartel?

 

[Jack6591]

Has OPEC ever been an effective cartel?

1974 sticks out in my mind.

 

[Lump]

1974 sticks out in my mind.

A lot has changed since the 70's, yesterday I was buying EOG 2017 70 LEAPS, putting my bet on American fracking oilman vs the crumbling cartel, planning on nibbling on some OTM Pioneer Resource LEAPs next week.

 

[CHGolferJim]

There is an interesting article published by the George C. Marshall institute, for example (could not copy a link on iPad).

 

[Jack6591]

There is an interesting article published by the George C. Marshall institute, for example (could not copy a link on iPad).

George C. Marshall Institute - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Curt Renz]

There is an interesting article published by the George C. Marshall institute, for example (could not copy a link on iPad).

If you are referring to the same article I found, it's actually a Forbes article written by an outside contributor and is a year old. It was linked by the Marshall Institute, which is a politically conservative think tank. As noted in Wikipedia, "Since the late 1980s, the Institute has put forward environmental skepticism views, and in particular has disputed mainstream scientific opinion on climate change": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_C._Marshall_Institute . In the meantime, Elon Musk has been belittling the potential for hydrogen fuel cells.

 

[Jack6591]

If you are referring to the same article I found, it's actually a Forbes article written by an outside contributor and is a year old. It was linked by the Marshall Institute, which is a politically conservative think tank. As noted in Wikipedia, "Since the late 1980s, the Institute has put forward environmental skepticism views, and in particular has disputed mainstream scientific opinion on climate change": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_C._Marshall_Institute . In the meantime, Elon Musk has been belittling the potential for hydrogen fuel cells.

I think Noam Chomsky would be a great speaker for our TMC conference.

 

[hobbes]

Maybe this result from Consumer Reports could give us some nice move up tomorrow after a boring few days (for those who didn´t get any turkey ).

 

[Intl Professor]

1974 sticks out in my mind.

I think the Jackson Committee hearings have shown the enforcers of the Saudi/OPEC decision in 1973 and 1974 were the oil companies. Further, they had exactly the same incentives as OPEC. A former colleague, later a Department of Energy advisor, and now an oil industry consultant told me the Saudis asked the majors for a worldwide printout of deliveries and then said: "cut it here and here and here." Admiral Mohrer, Chief of Naval Operations told the committee, something to the effect, Exxon at Naples refused to fuel our ships! Big Oil was then more potent than the U.S. Navy.

There's a lot more in the six volumes of the Committee's report.

 

[maoing]

Demand For Tesla Is Not The Problem, Switching The World To Electric Cars Is

Even with the extra output, Tesla is sold out — it has booked commitments for 70,000 cars for custom build.

How credible is the 70K estimation? I assume it's for Model S only. Tesla delivered 25K in 2012 and 2013 and will deliver 33K in 2014. So does that mean 70K - 25K - 33K = 12K backlog for model S?

 

[Papafox]

Looks like Forbes is on a roll with a second positive article about Tesla within the past 12 hours. This more recent article quotes a fund manager as saying that Tesla is his top stock pick and has room to run.

Tesla Stock to Lift Off After Battery Recharge

The same contributing writer (Susan Kalla) wrote this article and the one referred to by maoing.

 

[TD1]

at what point should TSLA be affected by low oil prices?
40$? or how long does it need to stay that low or can stay that low.
Clearly low oil prices results in low petrol price which make it less expensive to operate and ICE.

 

[justthateasy]

Looks like we'll be dipping even more. TSLA is down pre-market, though on low volume at the moment.

 

[FANGO]

at what point should TSLA be affected by low oil prices?
40$? or how long does it need to stay that low or can stay that low.
Clearly low oil prices results in low petrol price which make it less expensive to operate and ICE.

"Should"? Never. Will? I'm not sure.

But there should not be a connection, because there really isn't. Except when it comes to shipping costs. The model s is a better alternative than everything else in its price range even discounting the money saved from fueling - and it would take gas well under 1/gal to make it more expensive to fuel than most of the competition as well. And most people buying the s don't care much about the cost of fuel, anyway, and those that do can be replaced by people who don't because there is plenty of demand to go around. Falling oil prices also lower the cost of shipping and such for tesla so it's almost an economic benefit. And the way the prices are dropping, through Saudi manipulation, just proves how important it is to get off oil in the first place, because its ridiculous that one cartel controls so much of the world economy.

The market might think lower oil prices hurt tesla, and it will certainly bolster SUV sales, harm the environment through more oil use (with the ironic exception of killing off tar sands projects), and probably hurt hybrid sales, but I don't see it affecting EVs, and particularly not tesla.

 

[mibaro2]

It seems Tesla will need another positive catalyst to start moving up again. Anyone know of something new coming before the end of the year?

 

[aznt1217]

It seems Tesla will need another positive catalyst to start moving up again. Anyone know of something new coming before the end of the year?

Its year end. I wouldn't expect anything major till Jan. Funds will be doing some shopping by then and we'll have some positive reviews of the D moving around.

 

[MartinAustin]

It seems Tesla will need another positive catalyst to start moving up again. Anyone know of something new coming before the end of the year?

Owner testimonials & press reviews of the P85D and its amazing traction over difficult surfaces.

 

[jhm]

at what point should TSLA be affected by low oil prices?
40$? or how long does it need to stay that low or can stay that low.
Clearly low oil prices results in low petrol price which make it less expensive to operate and ICE.

At what price will owners of plug-in hybrids stop plugging in their cars because gas is cheaper than power from the grid? There is no sustainable price for this because cheap oil will also drive down the price of electricity if sustained.

I don't think current oil prices are sustainable. Once marginal producers are pushed out of the market, the price will go back up above $100. It may take a year or twoo, but by the time the Model 3 comes out, oil will be high again.

Of course, in the meantime Tesla will benefit from low oil prices as it can bring down the cost of good and transportation. Cheap oil can only improve Tesla's bottom line. Bears will always attack by questioning demand, but from a supply point of view Tesla is short oil. So cheap oil can only fuel Tesla's expansion, not curtail it.