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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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What's the significance you expect from Tesla @ NAIAS? Model X beta reveal and "good" Q4 ER pre-announcement like this year?

While it was a long shot that the Michigan law could keep TM out of the NAIAS I had been asking their PR people for some time to confirm that TM would be there. They finally said 'yes' and sent me a floor plan. As to what TM has there or announces...I have no idea.
 
FAA closed their investigation of the Boeing battery packs and concluded that inadequate design and testing were responsible for the incidents. It is significant IMO, that investigators did not conclude that there is any inherent fatal flaw in using the Li Ion batteries on the board of aircraft.

It is quite telling that after spending many hundreds of thousands of man-hours such a storied and established company as Boeing was not able to properly design the battery packs, while a brand new automobile company from California could. This is another indication of a crucial advantage that vertical integration approach used by Tesla brings into the design and manufacturing.

From Streetinsider.com:

Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) is positive in early trading Tuesday following Monday's sell off.The move might have been partially due in relation to expected results into a probe of Boeing's (NYSE: BA) 787 Dreamliner batteries. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) concluded that inadequate design and testing were culprits which led to grounding of the aircraft in early 2013.
The National Transportation Safety Board also cited Boeing for not anticipating how the power packs could fail and noted poor manufacturing by battery maker GS Yuasa.
Boeing used lithium-ion batteries in the 787, similar to what Tesla puts in its Model S sedan.
Notably, Dougherty & Co. issued commentary on Tesla amid yesterday's dip. For more color, click here.
Tesla shares are up 0.8 percent early.
 
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Few worries for me in last few weeks:

- I can not find data where the Q4 deliveries are, all I see is small numbers, so where is the BIG numbers going?
- Insurance popping On big time, from 750EUR per year to 5000 and so on (Europe, for example, Netherlands)
- this period going to be quiet till some Q4 data comes in and when Model X reveals.. hard to hold the 200ma :/
 
There have still not been any significant negative developements for Tesla in the past months, the worst and pretty much only negative news is the Model X being delayed a bit more which doesn't matter much. At least not as much as the gigafactory moving ahead of schedule to start producing batteries in 2016, the dual motor and autonomous tech announcement and the positive guidance. Tesla is stronger than ever, so going significantly lower than this level would be downright retarded, but the market does seem to have excess chromosomes at times so who knows.

Edit: Forgot about the oil drop, but that shouldn't matter much either as electricity obviously still is much, much cheaper than gas. And while a 30% or whatever drop in oil prices sounds like a lot it isn't nearly that big when you factor in the refining which AFAIK costs more than the crude oil itself, and then there is the taxes.
 
There have still not been any significant negative developements for Tesla in the past months, the worst and pretty much only negative news is the Model X being delayed a bit more which doesn't matter much. At least not as much as the gigafactory moving ahead of schedule to start producing batteries in 2016, the dual motor and autonomous tech announcement and the positive guidance. Tesla is stronger than ever, so going significantly lower than this level would be downright retarded, but the market does seem to have excess chromosomes at times so who knows.

Edit: Forgot about the oil drop, but that shouldn't matter much either as electricity obviously still is much, much cheaper than gas. And while a 30% or whatever drop in oil prices sounds like a lot it isn't nearly that big when you factor in the refining which AFAIK costs more than the crude oil itself, and then there is the taxes.

That said, tsla down $4.00 in pre-market. Not liking the look of today.
Wonder what the next support level is.
 
Some of the negative developments are reflected in EPS cuts over the past 90 days.

Screen Shot 2014-12-03 at 5.48.55 AM.png
 
And Pre-market is down again, just around 227....
Is it lack of news, or news that we don't know yet that make it tank like this?:confused:
Can't blame it again on oil, and NASDAQ Futures are green.
Is it the fact that we didn't quite hold the 200 dma? I guess a mix of everything actually...


Anyway, shorts are having a party, and there is not much that will stop them now short term. Even CR news seems to go unnoticed, or is distorted by shorts.

Good Q4 numbers (preferably a beat:p), good 2015 outlook and X reveal are the key...So we'll have to wait another month at least. In the meantime?

I remember a few weeks ago, someone comenting as we were clearing the 240, that we won't see those low levels ever again :)
Now I have no experience, but settling down below the famous 200dma, does that technically break a stock like TSLA?
 
And Pre-market is down again, just around 227....
Is it lack of news, or news that we don't know yet that make it tank like this?:confused:
Can't blame it again on oil, and NASDAQ Futures are green.
Is it the fact that we didn't quite hold the 200 dma? I guess a mix of everything actually...


Anyway, shorts are having a party, and there is not much that will stop them now short term. Even CR news seems to go unnoticed, or is distorted by shorts.

Good Q4 numbers (preferably a beat:p), good 2015 outlook and X reveal are the key...So we'll have to wait another month at least. In the meantime?

I remember a few weeks ago, someone comenting as we were clearing the 240, that we won't see those low levels ever again :)
Now I have no experience, but settling down below the famous 200dma, does that technically break a stock like TSLA?

i put my hopes in that P85D reviews and talk will turn the tide in not too long.:)
 
Well, I may try and catch the falling knife today...hopefully it won't cut me like it did 2 days ago.
Seriously, I can't see is falling lower than $227.
But I also said it wouldn't go lower than $235 on Monday.

I'd be very carefull!!! I've cut myself more than once.
Why would it stop falling?
P85D reviews are not there yet, and there's no reason for a Tweet...
So 9 minutes to go and we'll see:)
 
Well, I may try and catch the falling knife today...hopefully it won't cut me like it did 2 days ago.
Seriously, I can't see is falling lower than $227.
But I also said it wouldn't go lower than $235 on Monday.

The trick with the falling knife is to catch and release. Take a small run up and let it go. The problem is sometimes it keeps going and that's not too much fun.
 
The trick with the falling knife is to catch and release. Take a small run up and let it go. The problem is sometimes it keeps going and that's not too much fun.

Its very hard to trade TSLA short term, however, if you trade it long term then just know that no knives will far very far and TSLA will always grow back stronger. There will always be falling knives as TSLA grows stronger over the long term.


there is some new report by Bloomberg that Audi is planning a crossover EV for around 2017. While we know this new is ridiculous, this could have spooked the TSLA share price premarket as most institutional traders and algos follow Bloomberg terminals very closely.
 
It is quite telling that after spending many hundreds of thousands of man-hours such a storied and established company as Boeing was not able to properly design the battery packs, while a brand new automobile company from California could.

Boeing farmed out the BMS and pack management to another company, Securaplane, which it seems used a NiMH battery control scheme which allowed a trickle charge to continue after the cells were fully charged. Swelling and shorting resulted. Yet nowhere have I seen the FAA make this obvious connection.
 
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