JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'd say that's inherent when getting more range from the same package. It probably won't move the stock, but it should, since it's proof of how upgradeable and future proof an EV can be.
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Elon's world is much bigger than Tesla. He spends over half his time at SpaceX. Don't assuming all the "crisis" he referred to were Tesla-related.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Sure but at the same time, don't be thinking that if Elon is over at SpaceX or Solar City, nothing is going on at Tesla and they're just waiting for him to show up!
Whatever the "crises" are, they are well-known, and getting to the goal should not require the CEO to be around.
Krugerrand
Meow
LOL! H, E, double hockey sticks, NO! One simple, little, baby tweet and people have themselves all twisted up. It's classic and utterly priceless.
green1
Active Member
I have to agree. One of Elon's best qualities is his candour, I wouldn't change that for the world.
I agree 100%. For me it was a strong signal they are confident they worked out the kinks on other things to do this "pet project". The bigger message is Tesla time finally wasn't fully "Tesla time." He said it would be done by the end of the year. More importantly, this will probably make the roadster hold value for a while more... And will be integral for a CPO program from a refurbishment standpoint. The implications could be big.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Have to disagree. If personnel use account no issue but he uses it to release pr for tesla. As CEO and official source of information on company, he has responsibility to be precise and communicate with precision that does not lead to speculation. If you don't believe it's the "official" pr site for tesla count up tweets about tesla and compare to the number the pr person released over the past 3 years
It looks that there is a massive effort to deliver a lot of P85Ds by the end of the December. I was at the Devon, PA SC to replace 12V battery on my P85+ and did a quick walk down of the sales part of the parking lot there. I saw total of 13 cars ready for the pre-delivery prep, 7 of them P85Ds. A little later a tractor trailer with 7 more cars pulled over into the parking lot, carrying another 5 P85Ds.
I suspect that if they miss their numbers for the quarter (~33k) that the ASP increase of the D will make up for the difference. But, not sure how the market will react to that.
chickensevil
Active Member
I would like to think even more positively than that in that even though we are only getting the 33k deliveries the increased ASP will balance some of the miss from 35k. I haven't seen anything concrete that would indicate a miss of 33k... if they don't hit that number AT LEAST then we are going to be in for a rough quarter pretty much no matter what. outside of Q4 of last year we had been operating under "in-line" guidance, and then now last Q we had a miss AND a guidance downward of less than what they were saying. So if they miss 33k I don't think the market will be happy at all with this since we are already operating under a "miss" of 2k as it stands. Anything more and it is going to be devastating to the price.
This isn't an issue from a demand perspective... obviously. I don't think anyone in their right mind really sees Tesla as having a demand issue. But I think what was in the letter last Q was very apt to what the real issue with this company is, and what I think the market is going to start being quite harsh about and that is their inability to manufacture on a larger scale. All these hiccups in production is really starting to collect together and it has been dragging on the company for a while. If they can come out in Feb and say they are already at 1200+ cars a week then it will be very positive for the stock. And if they can come out with the 33k+ number... or by some shock, actually pull out their original 35k number then I think the market is going to be quite happy and that will be a catalyst to move the numbers.
Mr. Market seems to have had their fill of "empty" promises and only numbers are going to talk. I could be wrong here, but I think until they get their numbers in line, any other announcements aren't going to do much. (Note that numbers in this case would also be meeting the initial deliveries of the Model X so showing progress toward that first delivery might also help). I am not at all saying this to be negative toward the company. I am still a firm believer in everything and know that 5 years from now, missing 2k cars is nothing compared to the million or so cars they are going to be hopefully producing, but in the short term Mr. Market wants to see progress in manufacturing.
sundaymorning
Active Member
In the summer of 2013 I recall Elon stating exiting 2014 at a run rate of 800-1,000 per week. At that time the market was smitten about the 800 number. Fast forward to that date, Elon actually overachieved, we are exiting with at least 1,000 per and the prospect of exiting 1,200 is very real, as there has been media coverage on this.
In previous quarters, there has always been a last minute "big push," either to meet or beat numbers.. to me, whether TESLA misses or beats by 500-1,000 vehicle is irrelevant. It's all about 2015 guidance and X going forward. TESLA has been chosen as top pick for 2015 by FORBES, this is not by accident.
Yes, but...
While I agree with chickensevil that the market would be impatient with a second miss, there's still a way to keep shareholders happy if the miss is slight. As already mentioned, the higher margins from P85D sales will be a positive, but I'm looking at the combination of two other factors: current production and 2015 guidance. If Tesla misses the 33000 number slightly, I think the share price will still be okay if Elon announced a current production rate of 1200 cars/week and reaffirms the glowing 2015 projections that have already been made. Guidance will be the most important part of the Q4 ER. Reaffirming 2015's guidance would tell shareholders that this summer's difficulties were more a speed bump than a serious challenge to hitting 500,000 by 2020.
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chickensevil
Active Member
I am pretty sure it was 800 only but that was back when demand was projected to be capping out somewhere below that number. Demand is what everyone was surprised by... and most companies will continue to fill out until demand is satisfied. So while we are certainly higher in production than that 800 number that was talked about over a year ago... we are also significantly higher on share price to follow that trend. So when you put it in reference of where the share price can or will go then you have to also frame expectations to that value. Tesla released a surprisingly good product (surprise to the Market not really to us) and the stock price shot up to follow that surprise. as demand kept climbing and Tesla kept working to meet that demand shareprice also kept going up to follow. I would argue that part of the reason it stopped climbing and readjusted down is because now we are faced with a manufacturing issue of a sorts. Again, this is my trying to grasp the overall "feeling" about the company, not my personal goals or thoughts. This is why I said in the long term prospect all of it will come out in the wash. But as we start to try to anticipate where the stock will go leading into Q4 earnings release I think the biggest things that the market makers are going to have their eyes on is Tesla's ability to scale up their manufacturing. You (Tesla) told us that you installed this high speed line to hit 1000 vehicles and beyond, now prove it to us.
It won't likely be any other bit of news outside of that, that is the mostly likely to move the shareprice on Q4 earnings, not Model X, not Gen 3, but can you build what you are already supposed to be building. Which to your point also impacts their 2015 outlook... which is going to be the scaling up even further to that 2000 number they promised. Noone is going to care about or believe in their hitting of that 2000 number by the end of 2015 if they can't even sort out their issues right now to get solidly over 1000 a week. That was why I quoted the empty part of promises because it will be their expectation that if they can't trust management to pull through right in the here and now, then how can we care about what they claim about in the future. (again, it isn't my faith in the company that has wavered... but my insignificant amount of cash is also not what drives the shareprice. You don't want the mainstream investors to get worried about management... that would be bad.)
Bottom line, we need a win this quarter or I fear that people are really going to get uneasy about the future outlook of the company. A miss on 33k would be bad... no matter what the excuse... it won't go over well.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I think it would be a valid argument to blame management if tesla misses by 3k or more deliveries. However, given the recent explanation for issues with seating & EPA ratings, it is acceptable to an investor like myself who sees the short and long term potential of TESLA if they only miss by 500-1k. The reason for this is I personally feel that the exit rate of 1,000-1,200 production is much more valuable than a meager 500-1k miss, although I am confident Tesla will meet its goal of 33k on a last minute push, which they have shown to be reliable in numerous previous quarters. If tesla misses only by 500-1k deliveries, and that is a BIG IF, I think the question investors will be asking is which side of the trade has more value? Selling because of a meager 500-1k miss, or increase guidance of 50% for 2015? Would investors sell on a 1k miss over a 17k gain (50k deliveries) for 2015?
This question will reveal itself in February, and currently a bit too early to answer because the share price is unknown as it is 1.5 months away. Given the recent downtrend and how undervalue we are momentarily, I doubt there would be a sell off. If Tesla, however, is in the $250-$260s before QR, I think we may see a brief sell off, only to bounce back ever stronger. if Tesla trades in the $220-$230 range, it won't fluctuate by much, and any sell off will be quickly snatched by others. Other factors will also come into play, like ASP, which we know will be higher than previous..
In July 2013, when there were talks of 800 exit rates for end of 2014, the share price was at approximately $150, fast forward 1.5 years and we are building a gigafactory, an unbelievable "D", reaching milestones in superchargers & retail stores, improvement in margins, improvements in battery density, world expansion, yet, share price only increased $65? Now that's a bargain. Especially when we know X is inevitable.
Given that management has been mum the past couple weeks where this forum was having respiratory failure, I believe the company is giving us subtle hints of its strength, had there been a blog or tweet defending the company's share value, then I would be a tiny bit concern. The message to be taken from Elon's silence here is, Mr. Market can go down all it wants, but we have bigger things to worry about because we know our product is selling out.
It's going to be close to get to 33k for eoy. And I agree the market will not like it. The only thing that may save us is increased revenue due to the ASP increasing. They definitely are having issues with increasing production and having the D cars in the line just complicates things. The seats, EPA, and port delays have not helped. Elon said on last call how difficult this is. The local service center near me delivered their first 2 P85D's and are receiving 12 this coming week to deliver by the eoy. So P85D deliveries should be between 500-1000 if every SC/store deliver similar numbers, this will add significantly to ASP and revenue. I have some Jan 15's which that are hurting. But 2015 is going to be great, they will resolve production issues and have many milestones.
Hoping on the short term the following:
P85D reviews, YouTube videos racing Ferrari's and Lambo's will create unbelievable buzz. A 130K supercar that seats 7 that anyone can drive
Surprise at Detroit auto show or even CES
X beta reveal, or any tweets by Elon on it. Crash results, range, features etc.
Elon tweets pic of III
Pics of giga factory building going up, or any progress updates. More talk on battery grid storage market
Roadster update with upgraded range/performance. And possibly leak that they are using new upgraded battery chemistry
SpaceX lands on the barge successfully Jan 6th, and the world realizes its the beginning of of a new era in space travel. This will boost Elons cred that people have been knocking lately
Remote possibility of some collaboration
Everyone realizes that we have a floor of 200-220 on stock and everyone buys in for 2015
Hedge funds/Analysts get progress updates/tours and we get some buying before their upgrades
Hoping on the short term the following:
P85D reviews, YouTube videos racing Ferrari's and Lambo's will create unbelievable buzz. A 130K supercar that seats 7 that anyone can drive
Surprise at Detroit auto show or even CES
X beta reveal, or any tweets by Elon on it. Crash results, range, features etc.
Elon tweets pic of III
Pics of giga factory building going up, or any progress updates. More talk on battery grid storage market
Roadster update with upgraded range/performance. And possibly leak that they are using new upgraded battery chemistry
SpaceX lands on the barge successfully Jan 6th, and the world realizes its the beginning of of a new era in space travel. This will boost Elons cred that people have been knocking lately
Remote possibility of some collaboration
Everyone realizes that we have a floor of 200-220 on stock and everyone buys in for 2015
Hedge funds/Analysts get progress updates/tours and we get some buying before their upgrades
CyberDutchie
Active Member
+1 This makes a lot of sense.
What would be good for management moving forward is to not give so much detail about exactly how long it's going to take to move to the next scale-up in production. For example, if they hadn't mentioned the line shutdown in the summer would take one week, nobody would have cared when it took two weeks instead. It's not like there is an industry benchmark that they are being compared to that they have to meet--most everything they do is unchartered territory and quite innovative. They should be admired for all the accomplishments in manufacturing vs. criticized if things take slightly more time. And management can help by being a little more vague about time frames.
So the market will react however it pleases to. We know how it works, it's more psychology, than anything and of course those big players who know how to play it.
Having said that, form a rational investor's point of view I don't care if they miss by a thousand cars due to these external factors. And I am not even talking about the long term "great scheme of things" point of view when we say, with Tesla @ 500k cars in 5-6 years, who cares if '14 was 32 or 33k? I am talking about short term, Q1. The possible "miss" in this last quarter is not because of any major design or mechanical issue damaging the brand, the image, the financials (recall) or any sudden drop in demand with mass cancellations. We have a strike at the port causing havoc for hundreds of companies, I imagine; we have a minor screwup with the first batch of next gen seats they have alredy fixed (awaiting new parts); and we had the regulatory issue with the sticker/ceritifcation that took sokme time to get done (resolved).
So they may deliver 1k less cars in December than planned and 1k more cars in January than planned (deliveries slipping to January). Who cares? They are selling everything they produce, have sold out production for months ahead, are ramping production as planned and the only thing more insane than the acceleration of the D is probably the margin on that car.
Having said that, form a rational investor's point of view I don't care if they miss by a thousand cars due to these external factors. And I am not even talking about the long term "great scheme of things" point of view when we say, with Tesla @ 500k cars in 5-6 years, who cares if '14 was 32 or 33k? I am talking about short term, Q1. The possible "miss" in this last quarter is not because of any major design or mechanical issue damaging the brand, the image, the financials (recall) or any sudden drop in demand with mass cancellations. We have a strike at the port causing havoc for hundreds of companies, I imagine; we have a minor screwup with the first batch of next gen seats they have alredy fixed (awaiting new parts); and we had the regulatory issue with the sticker/ceritifcation that took sokme time to get done (resolved).
So they may deliver 1k less cars in December than planned and 1k more cars in January than planned (deliveries slipping to January). Who cares? They are selling everything they produce, have sold out production for months ahead, are ramping production as planned and the only thing more insane than the acceleration of the D is probably the margin on that car.
sundaymorning
Active Member
+1
precisely, I share your sentiment. The share price as it stands is too good of a deal to drop on an arbitrary 1k miss, especially when 2015 will bring in 50% more deliveries and an exit rate of 1000-1,200 in 2014. Although X is months away from production, I feel a prototype may arrive sooner than expected. The market and the media can only react favorably. Lots of upside in the "short term."
Anyone know anything about this? Question for the Detroit auto show: Where’s Tesla? - Fortune
I'd hope they would have the Model X alpha or something else exciting to show/talk about here. I'm not in the camp that thinks Model III is likely to be shown any time soon so I"m not counting on that.
I'd hope they would have the Model X alpha or something else exciting to show/talk about here. I'm not in the camp that thinks Model III is likely to be shown any time soon so I"m not counting on that.
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