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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
TMC gets the significance in 10 seconds, the general market in about a year...
It's not that interesting, imo. And, likely already priced in since it was announced so long ago.
Now if only he could follow up with a "oh yea we made 32000 cars today" that would move the price...
It was priced in, then it was not with all the "execution risk" issues... so I'm thinking it's not priced in. We'll see.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
The market might think that Tesla doesn't really mean it. For instance, see one of the replies under Elon's tweet (from one of the usual suspects):
When a second one opens, and when a clear expansion plan is announced (like there is for the SC network), the market will react.
I personally love the battery swap idea, even though it's a difficult logistics problem to solve. I got the impression that Elon wasn't very enthusiastic about the concept, but if this pilot station is a success, that might change.
I think it was probably really important that it open this calendar year (for ZEV credit reasons), and hence it is actually something the market should react to, but probably doesn't understand. I like buying opportunities like I believe this one to be. Unfortunately it's hard to know when the penny will drop on this; it might not be until ZEV credits get sold and reported, maybe a year from now.
chickensevil
Active Member
But the 'tax-credit collection ploy' is of California's own making.
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Yeah, which is what makes the Tweet FUD because CARB came up with the new rules themselves knowing full well what Tesla was doing previously and what they planned to do in the future. So if they didn't want Tesla to "tax-credit collection ploy" the system then they should have shut the system down entirely. It isn't like any of this came out of left field... we have been sitting on this for over a year now... and almost 2 years since they talked about making the change in the first place!
This is a cool beta program, but I personally think the Tesla Superchargers blanketing the country/world are now and should continue to be the lifeblood of long-range electric transportation until/unless we have electrified "rails" for cars on major highways in the distant future. Either way, it's cool that it's online.
Today is a Quadruple Witching day in the market, which may be having an effect on TSLA and other actively traded stocks. I suspect this and QQQ movement are the primary drivers of price action today.
Based on previous history I am cautious about information coming from his reports, but one of the tidbits in this one is that factory is at 1200-1250 cars/week. If true, this is spectacular news, hopefully this is based on information from a factory visit, not a speculation.
But you should ignore that information because he has proven unreliable with previous "facts".
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CA's ZEV rules changed so that swapping credits are essentially based on proportion of miles traveled using swapping, right? Given that proportion will be extremely low, they won't accrue many credits. If anything, its potential value is to persuade CARB that people don't swap because they don't need to swap, so the "fast refueling" credit requirements are bogus.
I see swapping as useful for (a) high peak travel (b) replacing your battery.
We also don't have details on what the swapping entails. The blog said "With further automation and refinements on the vehicle side, ..." which almost hints that it's partially a Turk and there'll be Tesla employees doing some of the swapping work.
What's more even if the 1,200 to 1250 cars/week is accurate, that does not mean it's an ongoing rate just yet. That is, with the complications in getting P85D's produced, Tesla may have fallen off track for their 33K vehicle guidance and turned to overtime to get back on track. Don't get me wrong, great news if this is true and an ongoing rate, but it's not so clear that this is the case.
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