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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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In this case, Tesla's revision of vehicle ride height and addition of increased underbody protection should reduce both the frequency of underbody strikes and the resultant fire risk. A defect trend has not been identified. Accordingly, the investigation is closed.
That verbiage certainly doesn't seem to imply Tesla can lower the ride height again. The raising of the ride height seems to be part of why they concluded the problem is addressed.
 
That verbiage certainly doesn't seem to imply Tesla can lower the ride height again. The raising of the ride height seems to be part of why they concluded the problem is addressed.

Yet 5.9 brings auto lowering ;) And the release of 5.9 WAS premonition of NHTSA clearance like it was always assumed by many of us here :) Reason why I bought with my last cents yesterday next weeks $227.5 call (lowest strike I could get with the last bucks). Up 100% already.
 
It seems like the investigation was open indefinitely by NHTSA b/c they weren't able to conclude anything. Then when Tesla showed them the fix in March they were satisfied and closed the report. This makes sense b/c with just two major incidents (and no other major incidents since) there was very little data for NHTSA to go on. Tesla did the right thing for their customers and also to get this investigation closed.

This does seem like a great positive catalyst and the right time. We might not move up too much today (I'll take 3% though :) ) but I think next week will be much better. Hopefully there will also be more positive news!

But the best part about the investigation closing is that we can now stop the speculation! Was getting tired of reading all the posts about when the investigation would be closed :)
 
It seems like the investigation was open indefinitely by NHTSA b/c they weren't able to conclude anything. Then when Tesla showed them the fix in March they were satisfied and closed the report.

This. I think they couldn't find the item that caused the HVB penetration in Washington state so the NHTSA was basically in an indefinite hold position since there was no data. At some point, Tesla/Musk decided to end it with this solution.

I do think it was the right decision for Tesla to move the ride height up in the intervening time, as much as it was against some of our wishes.

Now the bears will move onto the cost of armor for future models.
 
It seems like the investigation was open indefinitely by NHTSA b/c they weren't able to conclude anything. Then when Tesla showed them the fix in March they were satisfied and closed the report. This makes sense b/c with just two major incidents (and no other major incidents since) there was very little data for NHTSA to go on. Tesla did the right thing for their customers and also to get this investigation closed.

This does seem like a great positive catalyst and the right time. We might not move up too much today (I'll take 3% though :) ) but I think next week will be much better. Hopefully there will also be more positive news!

But the best part about the investigation closing is that we can now stop the speculation! Was getting tired of reading all the posts about when the investigation would be closed :)

Agreed. Now we can redirect all of our speculative thoughts to the Gigafactory regarding if and when Panasonic will sign on.
 
Looks like we're still basically tracking NASDAQ, so the NHTSA clearance must have been priced in.

I don't see why this should come as a surprise. Did anyone honestly think the run-up from 117 to 265 was in any way tempered by fears of a negative NHTSA outcome? IMHO the NHTSA outcome was priced in the moment the German authorities announced their findings and we shot up from the 120s to the 140s.
 
One important question here is how much this will eat in to the gross margins for the next few quarters. In my book it's a good move from Tesla that indicates that, just as it has always been, safety, reliability and quality are in focus and "money is not an issue" when it comes to safety. I like this approach better than any alternative.

I sure it will eat into them, but I think they will still increase enough for it not to matter. Like, 29.5% instead of 30.1% or something.

edit: I did some "math." Elon says the upgrade will reduce range by ~.1%. .1% of the weight of the car is about 5 lbs. Titanium costs about 6 dollars per kilogram, which means, if we're adding 5lbs of titanium, then this will only cost about 20 dollars per car. Add a massive fudge factor because I'm being rather inexact here, cost of labor and logistics, etc., and lets say its 300 dollars per car, close to what someone else has estimated. 300 dollars is .3% of an ASP of 100k, which is what we're just under. So I expect an under-1% impact on gross margins from this fix.
 
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To build on Fango's statement, if we see less than 1% change in gross margin, and if demand for the car rises by greater than 1% because of reduction in fears about fires, then the titanium shield will be a net positive. I think demand for the car will increase substantially greater than 1% because the fire factor was the one negative that the detractors of Tesla could point to. Now it's gone.
 
I sure it will eat into them, but I think they will still increase enough for it not to matter. Like, 29.5% instead of 30.1% or something.

edit: I did some "math." Elon says the upgrade will reduce range by ~.1%. .1% of the weight of the car is about 5 lbs. Titanium costs about 6 dollars per kilogram, which means, if we're adding 5lbs of titanium, then this will only cost about 20 dollars per car. Add a massive fudge factor because I'm being rather inexact here, cost of labor and logistics, etc., and lets say its 300 dollars per car, close to what someone else has estimated. 300 dollars is .3% of an ASP of 100k, which is what we're just under. So I expect an under-1% impact on gross margins from this fix.

$300 to add a titanium plate designed to protect your undercarriage from worst case collision? Where do I find that for my honda accord:)
 
To build on Fango's statement, if we see less than 1% change in gross margin, and if demand for the car rises by greater than 1% because of reduction in fears about fires, then the titanium shield will be a net positive. I think demand for the car will increase substantially greater than 1% because the fire factor was the one negative that the detractors of Tesla could point to. Now it's gone.

That would be true - if TM wasn't supply constrained for the foreseeable future.
 
wish I had more cash to throw at TSLA today, the new battery shield is another home run for Tesla, it's everything I had hoped. the best car on the road just got even better. To me it's not fixing a flaw per say, it's using the millions of real world hours being put on these cars to hone and perfect the car, making the car more bullet proof and badass ... hats off to them for doing it right!!!
 
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