jhm
Well-Known Member
Yup, when Tesla does begin taking deposits, they may need to set up a lottery for who goes first. Otherwize, things could get ugly, like Walmart on Black Friday ugly.
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+1; I have three co workers and four family members that keep asking me about when to make their reservations. I have concluded that I may have to make 6-7 reservations in various names asap when the 'reservation line' opens. Reminds me of trying to get great concert seats precisely when the ticket agency opens the phone lines and you start speed dialing about 10 minutes before the line opens just to give yourself a chance.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think it will be a crazy day for the stock price when they actually announce Gen III deposit numbers. My guess is that at this moment even Tesla is underestimating Worldwide Gen III demand. People really are craving for a non compromise affordable BEV. At least a lot of people I know
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I wonder if there's going to be something new and cool about gen 3 like the falcon door. How about a biker mode like the bat mobile. Where the driver moves into the frunk in a superman position for driving with 360 surround view from cameras.
I think it will be a crazy day for the stock price when they actually announce Gen III deposit numbers. My guess is that at this moment even Tesla is underestimating Worldwide Gen III demand. People really are craving for a non compromise affordable BEV. At least a lot of people I know
This, been calling it for a while that they will break many many records for consumer pre-order history. Just imagine the headlines. Imo this is the reason they are breaking ground on 2-3 GF now.
A different Elon interview from last night:
Elon Musk talks Tesla and climate change | MSNBC
No real news, but he did talk about Tesla patents and some thoughts on climate change.
Elon Musk talks Tesla and climate change | MSNBC
No real news, but he did talk about Tesla patents and some thoughts on climate change.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I don't think so. Without opening up gen 3 for preorder, they have no means to measure gen 3 demand. Which means that the 2-3 giga factory is based on Model S demand in China. And i say China because the demand is pretty much known for the rest of the world. There are no demand in asia besides China either. Most people i talk with have no idea what tesla is.
I think the entire premise of the gigafactory vertical integration strategy is based on Gen 3 demand assumptions. Even without a measurement of preorders, I think it's pretty much assumed they are planning for higher than 500k/year eventually, hence the talk of a possible Asia and Europe vehicle production facility. I don't think the market for Model S is much larger than 50-100k/year just from the current economic pricepoint (Elon's latest conservative guess was 40k demand long term), so it really can't be the driving force of 2-3 GF, which could supply 1mm-1.5mm Model S/X worth of battery packs. I think it's relatively cheap to break ground on these sites, accelerate one, and then depending on reception of Gen3 preorders, decide the schedule of the other sites then.
It's not just China. It's NA, China, EU, Japan. The EU and Japanese markets for an on-target Gen 3 would be much larger because of both price and form factor.
The unknown is a question of "How huge?" I'd suggest that after the Gen 3 launch people who hadn't heard of Tesla would learn about them very quickly.
chickensevil
Active Member
I think this is largely why they are trying to push out all over the world right now as far as access to the Model S. This way more people will be just naturally exposed to the current products which will naturally increase demand all around for the Gen 3 when it is released.
It happened from the Roadster to the MS. Roadsters were heavy in Cali and less so elsewhere but it was there. People who got the roadsters told their friends, many who said, you know, that's really cool, but I would like something cheaper and also more family oriented. Tesla came back with that response.
Now here we have the MS and MX, and people who the MS didn't work for are lining up in droves for the MX (aren't we slated to surpass the pre-orders for what they had for the MS when all was said and done?). You have the natural exposure that is opening up others to the idea and awareness of the product.
By the time Gen3 is released there will be 2,500 Roadsters, at least 170,000 MS, at least 60,000 MX on the road by the end of 2016 (somewhat conservative guesses, the numbers could easily be higher). These will of course be spread all over the world.
They have also said they plan to triple the number of open stores by the end of this year alone, and triple the number of superchargers by the end of this year. (so that should be close to 300 stores and 300 superchargers spread across the globe)
The exposure level of Tesla will be spread far and wide to the point where I don't think they will have any issue at all selling every single Gen3 they can possibly make in 2017/2018. That will then continue to expose Tesla to the population and it will be harder and harder to find people who don't know that Tesla exists and they make pretty cool cars.
If for some reason they are not hitting the exposure levels they feel they need, then they can easily start advertising in order to increase those levels, but I think I agree with the consensus that the pre-orders are going to blown out of the water. Exciting times!
Muskol
Member
I intend to shove everyone out the way when the store opens to secure 2-3 reservations for my family at the Toronto store... you have been warned, elbows up!!
See you there!
I may rent Gordie Howe to attend at the Vancouver store.I intend to shove everyone out the way when the store opens to secure 2-3 reservations for my family at the Toronto store... you have been warned, elbows up!!
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I intend to shove everyone out the way when the store opens to secure 2-3 reservations for my family at the Toronto store... you have been warned, elbows up!!
You need to figure out a way to get invited to the Gen III Launch party, and bring your checkbook along. That's how I got Signature #2 for the Model X. Or else be ready a day later, when reservations open up online. (Assuming Gen III follows the same pattern as previous releases, of course.)
If I get Sig #1 for Gen3, I'm keeping it as a collectible.
Btw, did you see who reserved Sig #1 for the Model X?
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