I just was checking out short term option pricing. Currently I find them way too high, and think overall that news of the gigafactory will not affect stock too much. I fully expect the factory to get built and be reasonably on time, and I think others do as well (based on interviews and the fact that groundbreaking is already slightly late, I think they said June?) This presumption is baked into the stock price already, and I feel the only gigafactory news that could effect stock would be negative news...like Panasonic not contributing very much money, or large delays.
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Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
sundaymorning
Active Member
I would have to disagree. This is one of the most highly anticipated news for tesla this year. Not only is it a topic of interest at this forum, but its been reported at all levels of news outlets as everyone are speculating which state will win tesla's plant. Once the cat is out, we will hear about it even more amongst reporters, speculators and "analysts." The first time Elon mrntioned giga factory, combined with the MS upgrade, tesla spiked to its ATH.. additionally, in June, while investors speculated the announcement would arrive, we witnessed the stock rise up to $240s. After it was apparent that an announcement was not going to happen by end of June, we fell back to current levels.
To say something as big as this is already priced in is miscalculating one of tesla's most important business decision.. good luck to everyone on the 31st.
PS This was written on my iPhone 4, so I apologize for any spelling or grammar mistakes as the screen is way too small. We all know the iPhone 6 is coming with a larger screen, possibly in September. But to say that it's "already priced in" because we've been hearing rumors since December is severely miscalculating apple's future and new product IMO.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
You just reminded me. I need to put in a limit sell order for all my TSLA at $2000. I don't want you undercutting me with your $2225.
Actually, the first mention of a "Gigafactory" was during the Q3 2013 conference call. The stock reacted very negatively to that earnings / call.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Good memory on your part. I think during 3rd Q I was worried as everyone else was about tesla's guidance, because if the factory piece of business didn't materialize, we would be battery constraint for gen 3. That is the reason I'm speculating that the market reacted negatively because none of us knew if Elon was actually going to be able to execute that giga factory piece. From then till now, we are still waiting for final word, which we all know will bring very positive results.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Nice TSLA price action today vs a very down market. Apparently, no specific catalyst today other than EC next week and GF rumblings.
I don't think this has already been posted but it seems like really big news. CA is a real contender! 
"California has reentered the race and closed the gap with the other states," said Tesla spokesman Simon Sproule in an interview Thursday. He says the change has come through the state's efforts to speed up the approval process. "Now, the state has indicated that (it) wants to move as quickly as we need (it) to move."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/07/25/california-gigafactory-tesla/13146237/
"California has reentered the race and closed the gap with the other states," said Tesla spokesman Simon Sproule in an interview Thursday. He says the change has come through the state's efforts to speed up the approval process. "Now, the state has indicated that (it) wants to move as quickly as we need (it) to move."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/07/25/california-gigafactory-tesla/13146237/
Be ready on Monday:
Fire-displaces-bedford-family
Looking at the video, the Tesla is probably not related, but we all know how the media is going to spin it.
Fire-displaces-bedford-family
Looking at the video, the Tesla is probably not related, but we all know how the media is going to spin it.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I'd say looking at the video the Tesla is unequivocally, 100% not related...and it's ridiculous that they mention in the written story the cars parked in the driveway just to show up on some Google searches.
It's like saying "The house was damaged extensively by the fire, etc., etc. There was a 2008 Toyota Corolla and a 1985 El Camino parked in the driveway." Uh....so? Maybe the writer just has A.D.D. and was distracted by the pretty Tesla?!?
I don't think this has already been posted but it seems like really big news. CA is a real contender!
I'm not surprised. When Tesla first announced the gigafactory, I had a sneaking suspicion that CA might end up being the site, even when they were publicly saying CA wasn't in the mix.
Musk's whole strategy with Tesla has been vertical and physical integration rather than dealing with dispersed supply chains and their headaches. For those reasons, I think CA and NV are probably the only two realistic sites, and quite frankly, over say 10 years, any incentives given by any state would be dwarfed by the savings in supply chain management if the factory were located close to the current auto factory.
Also, I'm curious about the labor supply: are there actually 6500 skilled factory workers available in a distant place in NV? I realize people could and would move in, but it's easier when you have a pool of experienced workers (like they did in Fremont where there were thousands of laid off auto workers still around) to draw from immediately.
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