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Thumper
Active Member
A downward move in the near future will be working against some strong good news catalysts that we expect. Namely, gigafactory finalization of at least one site. Demo of production version of the X. Confirmation of 1000/wk production rate.
chickensevil
Active Member
I am not chart expert but it looks like this might be the top for the day. Each time the RSI started to go down the price mostly held and went sorta flat. Now we are seeing the RSI drop and the price looks to be following. Maybe it is because people are off to lunch. Might get lucky with a surge at 1PM.
Perfectlogic
Member
What a nice day, did not expect a price target that high. I think it really scared some shorts including Cramer who apparently also just covered, which is causing a significant part of this large gain today, as far as I can tell the $400 PT report didn't contain any significant news about Tesla going forward. Just sold my first option contracts for a 150% and 175% gain to free up some capital for more YHOO, decent gain for a month.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Perfectlogic
Member
Might have heard it wrong, is he just talking about people generally covering? Sounds a bit ambiguous to me
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000307292&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo#.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000307292&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo#.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Cramer is barred from taking any positions in equities as a part of his contract with CNBC. His charitable trust owns stocks, but only buys and only common stock. They never short a stock with charity money.
chickensevil
Active Member
So here we are... after 1PM, lets see if we can get another run to the top again for the day (although I am really happy if we just trade flat for the rest of the day as well). We are still in oversold territory so when that finishes we could see another run attempt, but volume is also a lot lower right now too.
I just want a close above 280 for the day.
I just want a close above 280 for the day.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Thanks for the response.
I have several reasons. As for the $280 target, I thought there was a fair chance of reaching it. And I thought there might be some chance of it dropping enough to buy back a few more shares. It's my cowardly approach rather than trading in options. If it doesn't drop enough I'll have to be satisfied with the profits. Those shares were originally purchased at less than $31. Furthermore, I have to sell to pay taxes every year, as it's in my IRA and I'm retired. Lastly, I could use the money. If I don't, I can pay the taxes and re-buy TSLA after rolling it over into my ROTH brokerage account. The question would be "At what price?"
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, if you aren't looking for something immediate (if you are talking taxes that means you are dealing with at least an April timeframe), then it might be best to wait and see. At some point there will be a pullback that is pretty significant... The company is bound to do or say something that causes people to be cautious and that will be a good time to re-enter. I would wait for the pull back (at least a solid 10-20$ drop) and figure out why it is dropping, when it will turn around, and plan for a purchase over a spread of a couple weeks. This is because it will be impossible to determine the absolute bottom, but it gives you a better chance to make the purchase an average of the bottom prices.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Andrea James' $325 price target no longer looks outlandish. It's only $40 away now.
From what I've seen in the press, that there have been a raft of analyst visits to the factory, following the stabilised addition of the new assembly line.
I wonder if Andrea James will be over there soon, or has already carried out a visit and is about to unleash a report and/or revised report.
One thing is for sure, when she put out that $325 price target, it seemed a long way off, but we're closing in on it now. (Compare with Bank Of America's complete waste-of-time price target)
From what I've seen in the press, that there have been a raft of analyst visits to the factory, following the stabilised addition of the new assembly line.
I wonder if Andrea James will be over there soon, or has already carried out a visit and is about to unleash a report and/or revised report.
One thing is for sure, when she put out that $325 price target, it seemed a long way off, but we're closing in on it now. (Compare with Bank Of America's complete waste-of-time price target)
What happens to TSLA when the bonds are converted? I guess that's more a long term question.
chickensevil
Active Member
I thought that deal became even better for Tesla if the stock did shoot over that mark by a large amount since they hedged it with options right? Plus I don't think they mature until later regardless of the underlying stock price, or did I miss something? I thought these were specifically a better deal for Tesla BECAUSE they didn't mature until like 2018 (I think it was) and had the option to pay out in stock, cash, or both. I get the feeling they will just end up paying all these out in cash from the proceeds of the options they hedged these bonds against.
chickensevil
Active Member
Oh and here we go, it has been a nice slow steady rise back up currently 283.57$ with about 40 minutes to go would be great to see it close above 284.80 (mostly because that is the break-even on my options 3 weeks from now 
)
)
Tesla began hedging against the bond conversion (or dilution) in the 2nd quarter.
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...2f73d9c64e/Q1'14 Shareholder Letter final.pdf
Cash at quarter end, including cash equivalents and short-term marketable securities, increased to almost $2.6 billion, in part because we issued $2 billion of senior convertible notes with five and seven year maturities. Q2 financials will reflect an additional cash inflow of $267 million from the exercise of the convertible notes overallotment option by our underwriters. We used a small portion of the gross proceeds to invest in bond hedge transactions, offset by proceeds from a sale of related warrants. As a result, we should avoid any actual dilution from the convertible notes until our common stock climbs over $500 per share. A table published on our website shows the potential dilution from our note offerings at various projected stock prices.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3152427633x0x741524/475409bf-ceb9-4473-b4cf-da7f159d1ca2/Potential%20Dilutive%20Shares%20for%20Convert%20and%20Warrants%20Apr%202014.pdf
Tesla is hedging up to $500 a share. Wall Street is conservative at price targets of $325 to $400. And there are $2.3 Billion reasons to believe that :smile:
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