Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FluxCap]

We always find out the real news 24 to 48 hours later. Call me cynical, but do you believe the 5.5% jump on Monday was really about the analyst report? Or do you believe investment firms jumped on the Gigafactory information? It takes a lot of buying to move TSLA 5.5%. I find it difficult to believe that an analyst at Stifel moved the stock 5.5% I do not find it a coincidence that the Gigafactory press conference was 48 hours after the jump. People knew. And people bought.

The Law of Inefficient Markets teaches us that the individual investor finds out about information after Wall Street profits.

Eh, I've profited quite nicely from Wall Street's slow uptake of key TSLA-related news items several times now, revealed on this very site. As Sam Elliot said in The Big Lebowski, "sometimes you eat the bear, and well, sometimes the bear, he eats you."

Today, I ate the bear.

 

[chickensevil]

But wasn't most of that thought process coined back before the major **** into the internet, and especially with web 2.0? I mean people tweet and facebook post just about everything now to the point where in every other instance of news breaks (outside the stock market) someone on twitter seems to know something before you see it on TV or some such.

There have also been some pretty clear cases where we had information figured out and posted here prior to others getting that information. So I don't know if I buy that mantra anymore. Web 2.0 has really changed the way we do business and get information in everything else, why wouldn't that also apply to stocks?

 

[Joel]

Eh, I've profited quite nicely from Wall Street's slow uptake of key TSLA-related news items several times now, revealed on this very site. As Sam Elliot said in The Big Lebowski, "sometimes you eat the bear, and well, sometimes the bear, he eats you."

Today, I ate the bear.

Exactly. This site is another example of the Law of Inefficient Markets.

 

[Monsoon]

Spike might be due to this, just hit my IN box:

7 reasons Tesla’s stock is headed higher - MarketWatch

 

[chickensevil]

nice spike there after consolidating around 285 midday. Here comes 290 attempt.

V much looking forward to press conf and stock reaction AH and mañana.

No no idea which direction it'll go.

and 290... gone... haha!

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Make that 291...

 

[justdoit]

Tempted to sell some of the short term calls but with this insane volume I think we might have some more room to go!

 

[FluxCap]

People finally realizing that Tesla wasn't joking about building a battery factory?

If we have faults here on TMC, I think it is the depths to which we believe everyone should know and believe what we know and believe to be true regarding this company. I have been consistently surprised by the market being apparently blindsided by Tesla delivering on its promises.

Betting against Elon is not wise, but the massive amount of people who do just that are what have made my fortune. Because I will happily take their money, and I have.

Edit: NASDAQ falling off a cliff right now so we might be bound here for a while, but I'm still thinking we close at a nice round 290 today.

 

[Renaud]

Would this be a good excuse to buy a few calls, like, let's say 290's expiring tomorrow at 90cts? Just a bit of gambling here you know ;-)

Keep Calm and Enjoy

 

[eepic]

If we have faults here on TMC, I think it is the depths to which we believe everyone should know and believe what we know and believe to be true regarding this company. I have been consistently surprised by the market being apparently blindsided by Tesla delivering on its promises.

My thoughts exactly. To be fair I don't blame them, there's so much BS coming from corporate leadership it's often right to be highly skeptical of ambitious plans. What they don't realize is that Elon means what he says in terms of the broad strokes (his short term timeline is often too optimistic though).

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

People finally realizing that Tesla wasn't joking about building a battery factory?

No. Being happy that they actually took another step towards it. Tesla tells you what it's planning to do and people like what it's planning to do, so every time they actually take a significant step forwards people get excited.

 

[chickensevil]

Tempted to sell some of the short term calls but with this insane volume I think we might have some more room to go!

So speaking of volume, now that enough time seems to have passed for Google to get a decent count of them... the highest spike ended up being almost double the opening volume (which is normally around our highest volumes for the day), something big got triggered on the way up causing a lot of shares to trade hands.

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290 likely had a lot of sell orders set to cut profits, cause even the RSI has dropped way off again, this might be it for the day on movement. We might pull back up to close around 290 as FluxCap was suggesting, but I think our run up is overwith. Was a lot of fun to watch

 

[austinEV]

On the topic of whether we know stuff before the market: yes. As others are saying, a lot of people don't believe the GF is a thing and then there is a press conference and it becomes real to them. For us "cultists" we hear Elon say there will be a GF and it becomes real. For the rest of the market, there is a discounting process that goes from 10% certainty to 100% certainty gradually as it unfolds. So the GF ground breaking is priced in, to a point, but at a discount. Any real milestones derisk the assumptions and the market will use it as an excuse to go up (in a bullish market context. If the market was going down no one would care).

 

[chickensevil]

On the topic of whether we know stuff before the market: yes. As others are saying, a lot of people don't believe the GF is a thing and then there is a press conference and it becomes real to them. For us "cultists" we hear Elon say there will be a GF and it becomes real. For the rest of the market, there is a discounting process that goes from 10% certainty to 100% certainty gradually as it unfolds. So the GF ground breaking is priced in, to a point, but at a discount. Any real milestones derisk the assumptions and the market will use it as an excuse to go up (in a bullish market context. If the market was going down no one would care).

I guess my complaint/observation/whatever was just that this was in the news yesterday by a number of major sources including WSJ and Dow Jones. The market's initial reaction seemed to be negative given the price drop at the end of the day. Then today we have been on a nice steady rise which was mostly contributed to just having an up-market day (I think we broke new highs on the overall market itself if I am not mistaken). Then all day so many news sources have picked up this Gigafactory news that you can't Google Tesla and not get some kind of first result being one of these stories... so my question was oriented around the very apparent delay in reaction which started around 2PM... I mean, that is slow...

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And yeah, I think there must have been a lot of limit orders set around the 290 mark because this has pushed us way down. The good news if all this clears out by the end of the day, and the announcement is taken as really good news then we should be able to blow past all of this on tomorrows open. Break through the 290 stuff today so we can run again tomorrow.

 

[The Blue Owl]

On the topic of whether we know stuff before the market: yes. As others are saying, a lot of people don't believe the GF is a thing and then there is a press conference and it becomes real to them. For us "cultists" we hear Elon say there will be a GF and it becomes real. For the rest of the market, there is a discounting process that goes from 10% certainty to 100% certainty gradually as it unfolds. So the GF ground breaking is priced in, to a point, but at a discount. Any real milestones derisk the assumptions and the market will use it as an excuse to go up (in a bullish market context. If the market was going down no one would care).

Yes, but the press conference was announced yesterday, and it was met with a big "Meh". While the raise from 10:30 to 11:00 today could be due to some article about the Nevada GF hitting the wires, or CNBC, or whatever, I don't see anything to justify this last spike on very high volume. Either some algos were duking it out, or someone learned something material that will be announced later today. If the latter, we might gap up tomorrow morning.

 

[mershaw2001]

Did you guys with short term calls sell today over 290?

 

[BlueTan85]

$284.30 and going down!

 

[chickensevil]

Did you guys with short term calls sell today over 290?

Boy I hope so! Cause if not, then that was a missed opportunity... Yikes!

 

[TSLAopt]

$284.30 and going down!

Enjoy the volatile ride...I think Implied Vol of the options must be getting very high here...the fact that we raced up to 290+ I think speaks to some big shorts deciding to cover before this announcement???once they were done covering we came back to reality of the mid 280s

if you look at the huge volume spike that happened around the same time Phil Lebeau tweeted the picture of the GigaFactory site...I wonder if that could have triggered it

 

[FluxCap]

Did you guys with short term calls sell today over 290?

I pulled off a gutsy move today, buying 290 weeklies when the spike began at 286 and selling at 291 when I decided my target had been reached, for a 132% gain. Doesn't happen often but that one felt good.

I think vgrinshpun had it right with his earlier posts here (everyone should read his posts carefully- he knows his stuff!)

I also think we will cross 300 this month.

 

[chickensevil]

Enjoy the volatile ride...I think Implied Vol of the options must be getting very high here...the fact that we raced up to 290+ I think speaks to some big shorts deciding to cover before this announcement???once they were done covering we came back to reality of the mid 280s

if you look at the huge volume spike that happened around the same time Phil Lebeau tweeted the picture of the GigaFactory site...I wonder if that could have triggered it

Oh, I think you found it I wonder if that really was the trigger haha! Well, I just followed him!

This was like a mini-bubble with a "bear trap" and everything I am willing to bet that is exactly how it played out too. Looks like all that selling has finally cleared out and we are on a rise again, 15 minutes to go where will it end?

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I pulled off a gutsy move today, buying 290 weeklies when the spike began at 286 and selling at 291 when I decided my target had been reached, for a 132% gain. Doesn't happen often but that one felt good.

I think vgrinshpun had it right with his earlier posts here (everyone should read his posts carefully- he knows his stuff!)

I also think we will cross 300 this month.

My confirmation bias appreciates the backing of hitting 300

And I will second vgrinshpun being a very smart guy who knows his stuff, whoever you are, you are very loved!