Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[MartinAustin]

Until Q3 2015 when strong positive cash flow actually materializes it will be easy to spread FUD at will.

There will always be FUD, it morphs and re-invents itself to make use of whatever available tools are around.

Examples of prior FUD -

Tesla Motors hasn't had a profitable quarter yet.
Tesla Motors is funded by government loan, they're the next Solyndra.
Tesla Motors is only alive because they sell Zero Emissions credits to other manufacturers.
The Tesla Model S is a loss-making car, they don't actually make a profit on it.
Tesla Motors loses money when you use normal accounting practices... they use wonky accounting to make it look better than it is.
Tesla's leasing program for the Model S is a trick, it's making it look like there are lots of revenues, but eventually all those cars are going to come back and be a massive financial headache.
Tesla Motors will never get its battery costs down.
Tesla can't increase production.

Many on this forum know that none of these represent solid, long term problems for the company and the stock has been very strong even with all these claims hovering around.

TSLA is already recovering from the Goldman Sachs report.

 

[chickensevil]

they are going through the order book rn, currently looking to open between $87 - $89.. but there are still not enough sellers at this level (outstanding buy orders)

thanks is there anyway to see this information without being a customer of one of the underwriters?

 

[Derek Vinyard]

I'm starting to believe in this BABA-related liquidity hypothesis. I for one am sitting here with cash watching BABA and YHOO.

- - - Updated - - -



QUICK EVERYONE, PUSH SELL ORDERS ON THE MOMOS SO WE CAN PUMP AND DUMP OUR BABA UNDERWRITE!

That's it ! 'cause the timing is perfect for the golden boys to make some "extra" cash!...again. X-mas is coming closer.

EDIT: guess BABA will open @ $92-95 ! watch out !

 

[twinklejet]

chickensevil, it's on CNBC live.. currently pricing to open between $90-$91.. be careful of that greenshoe option though..

 

[chickensevil]

chickensevil, it's on CNBC live.. currently pricing to open between $90-$91.. be careful of that greenshoe option though..

Oh, I don't want in that action, I have been burned too many times on IPO's, I was just asking in reference to when this will stop killing the Nasdaq and therefore stop killing TSLA.

 

[hershey101]

Is the IPO lock-up period standard for every company, or does it vary from company to company? When would the lock-up period for BABA expire?

 

[Derek Vinyard]

BABA - quote recap.

 

[FluxCap]

BABA - quote recap.

Chinese IPO with a market cap as big as Wal-Mart instantly. Crazy.

 

[Genebe]

Oh, I don't want in that action, I have been burned too many times on IPO's, I was just asking in reference to when this will stop killing the Nasdaq and therefore stop killing TSLA.

^^ This

A lot of money is going to be made today, but not by me!

 

[Derek Vinyard]

BABA $99.44 * 31.44 46.24%

madness !!

 

[Johan]

madness !!

Oh yes madness. At least it seems people are not selling TSLA anymore to free up cash.

This is the wrong thread but when do you guys think puts for BABA will start trading?

 

[FluxCap]

Oh yes madness. At least it seems people are not selling TSLA anymore to free up cash.

This is the wrong thread but when do you guys think puts for BABA will start trading?

I think it's unquestionable that BABA affected the whole market today, including TSLA, and it will probably continue to affect liquidity of other "Tech" and "Growth" stocks going into next week. I deployed cash away from TSLA options to trade this event, but I'm now thinking of using the Patrick Archambault news to re-enter my TSLA options, as I supect other traders are as well.

Not sure when BABA puts will begin but that will affect price for sure.

 

[vgrinshpun]

A good explanation of their valuation they just updated, continues on their previous analogy of Elon vs Jobs/Ford/Maytag

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/09/20140919_iTSLA.jpg

This is absolutely flagrant attempt at manipulation by GS.

"With numerous projects laid out (as well as those not currently communicated) ahead for TSLA, we see a possible need for additional capital. In the near term (end of 2014 through 2015) projects include upgrading the paint and body shops for Model S and Model X, continued Model X development/launch spending, and initial gigafactory costs. Into 2016, spending for the gigafactory accelerates and Model 3 spending begins. Beyond that, there will be incremental follow through capital deployment related to the Model 3 and gigafactory. TSLA management has noted that the company could self-fund these amounts but would consider external funding depending on its growth cadence and other projects it takes on. For example, at the low end of our three disruptive scenarios for TSLA, we see the need for an additional $6bn in capital," said Archambault

So the company essentially tells an analyst that they can self-fund for all the currently run R&D and expansion projects (which company pretty much guided puts it on a path of 500K units in 2017), but would consider external funding if demand requires higher growth or other projects are taken.

The esteemed analyst,however, turns around and points that his research shows that company will need additional funding ...

I, of course, know about their internal firewalls, but consider this: while maintaining neutral rating throughout q2 2014 (essentially not recommending to buy shares of TSLA) GS increased their TSLA position in Q2 by 53,84%, buying additional 304,556 shares.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings?page=2

 

[twinklejet]

By the way did anybody notice how CNBC tried to ask jack ma on the floor "it looks like your stock is going to open above $90 what are your thoughts on that" and jack said "well.." before he was promptly dragged away by his CFO (i think) who said "we'll think about it"..

I think he'll happily talk about his own stock like Elon if he wasn't dragged away

 

[aznt1217]

By the way did anybody notice how CNBC tried to ask jack ma on the floor "it looks like your stock is going to open above $90 what are your thoughts on that" and jack said "well.." before he was promptly dragged away by his CFO (i think) who said "we'll think about it"..

I think he'll happily talk about his own stock like Elon if he wasn't dragged away

Yea, but the difference is... he's no Elon Musk.

 

[FluxCap]

New blog post on Firmware 6.0!

Software v6.0 | Blog | Tesla Motors

 

[Gtoffo]

New blog post on Firmware 6.0!

Software v6.0 | Blog | Tesla Motors

Looks like some great software made it in there


Tesla is struggling against the general market a lot.... despite Goldman, it feels like it's trying to fight the market downtrend. Could it be a (short term) bullish sign?

 

[TSLAopt]

I think it's unquestionable that BABA affected the whole market today, including TSLA, and it will probably continue to affect liquidity of other "Tech" and "Growth" stocks going into next week. I deployed cash away from TSLA options to trade this event, but I'm now thinking of using the Patrick Archambault news to re-enter my TSLA options, as I supect other traders are as well.

Not sure when BABA puts will begin but that will affect price for sure.

I know many on here think it is the case, but I don't think BABA is directly affecting the whole market or growth stocks to any degree that we would even notice. BABA is selling something like 30bn worth of stock to the open public today...the entire capitalization of the US stock market is in in the several trillions. My point is, that even if BABA didn't exist we would still be down almost exactly as much we are now (maybe a few pennies higher) from our highs.

Thanks for the heads up on the 6.0 blog by the way

 

[EldestOyster]

JB Straubel filed with the SEC, intent to sell about 9% of his shares. Not that it's real news, but that's never stopped the media. I could see a price drop for 5 or 10 minutes based on this. <shrug>

 

[SteveG3]

Hard to know if Goldman just made this up, but if X is not revealed until January, I think it leaves Tesla more vulnerable to a dip for a couple of months. I'm not saying a dip is more likely than a rebound, I'm just saying if there's no X reveal catalyst in the next few months, it diminishes TSLA's ability to buck any general market downturn, or short-term hiccup (i.e. FUD re Q3 results, FUD if Consumer Reports reliability survey removes recommendation, unknown events).

Given that Goldman's very low 2020 volume targets seem self-serving (IIRC, 75% likelihood Tesla is under 300K/year in 2020, despite company's 500K+ guidance), and $6B cap raise chatter seems like a twisting of Tesla's comments/fabrication, it may be that their comments about Model X reveal in January is more of the same.

I know DaveT has twice gotten word just this week from Tesla IR when analyst statements were not based on anything from the company... Dave, maybe you could get the word on this one too?