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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Is the Tesla Model S Reliable? - Consumer Reports

This video was just published by Consumer Reports.

I just watched.

Summary:
(1) Model S had average reliability for 2013.
(2) Problems decreased for newer Model S.
(3) Common problems were with door handles, hatch/door latches, interior squeaks/rattles, and some powertrains (note: the noise issues that had to do with the loose cables and shim were addressed by Tesla).
(4) Reliability was better than some competitors' vehicles like Mercedes S-class
(5) Over 1300 Model S owners completed the CR survey.
 
Notice that we have failed several times to get back into the orange channel, it's now all about the 200DMA...

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200DMA is $223.92 or ~$224.

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sorry to sound like a conspiracy theorists, but publications owned by Rupert Murdoch (WSJ, Barrons, MarketWatch (used to be owned by CBS)), seem to quite consistently present all things Tesla with a negative spin.

I'm just linking articles that may be visible to the broader public here, don't shoot the messenger! I absolutely agree with your point though, seems pretty intentional to leave out the part that Tesla topped the owner satisfaction ratings. I'm guessing other media will pick it up over the next day or so.
 
I'm just linking articles that may be visible to the broader public here, don't shoot the messenger! I absolutely agree with your point though, seems pretty intentional to leave out the part that Tesla topped the owner satisfaction ratings. I'm guessing other media will pick it up over the next day or so.

eepic, sorry if it came across as a shot at the messenger, just meant it as a heads up about the track record of those sources. definitely worth keeping an eye on what such widely read outlets report, spin or not.
 
BTW, as a Q3 impact. This weekend at the Tesla Meets Tesla event in New York the representative that was there from Tesla confirmed that the factory was actually shut down for 3 weeks total but that he still expects the 35k year end target. For obvious reasons he couldn't say anything else. But I wasn't sure how many people were aware of the extended shutdown of the extra week (because I somehow had missed this).
 
BTW, as a Q3 impact. This weekend at the Tesla Meets Tesla event in New York the representative that was there from Tesla confirmed that the factory was actually shut down for 3 weeks total but that he still expects the 35k year end target. For obvious reasons he couldn't say anything else. But I wasn't sure how many people were aware of the extended shutdown of the extra week (because I somehow had missed this).

Yeah it's rumored 3,5 weeks. Meeting guidance for Q3 would suggest a nice speed up towards the end of Q3 which bodes well for future guidance...
 
sorry to sound like a conspiracy theorists, but publications owned by Rupert Murdoch (WSJ, Barrons, MarketWatch (used to be owned by CBS)), seem to quite consistently present all things Tesla with a negative spin.

Indeed that appears to be the case. I worked in broadcast television, and we were subject to the fairness doctrine in politics and automatically extended it to anything else including financial matters. Those rules don't apply to the print media or cable TV. The Murdoch entities depend on advertising from the established oil and automotive industries. They mock the notion of anthropogenic climate change.

The Wall Street Journal passed along the sales estimate from WardsAuto as though it were authoritative and made no mention of the plant shutdown. The word "average" in The Wall Street Journal article on reliability was ambiguous and might have appeared to apply to Tesla's overall rating by Consumer Reports rather than just reliability. Here's what Consumer Reports actually had to say in a video it released today:

“The Tesla Model S is Consumer Reports top scoring car, but that doesn’t mean it’s the most reliable car you can buy…Tesla has been aggressively updating and redesigning parts to improve reliability. This is evident in our data with newer models proving more reliable. Overall we predict average reliability if you buy a new Tesla. That means you might have a problem or two, but it’s far better than many conventional luxury cars like the Mercedes-Benz S Class or the Cadillac XTS.”
 
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Yeah it's rumored 3,5 weeks. Meeting guidance for Q3 would suggest a nice speed up towards the end of Q3 which bodes well for future guidance...

A reminder that Elon was interviewed by Fox on Sept 17 (well after factory shutdown) and he said he was comfortable with Q3 numbers, barring unexpected shipment delays. And it seemed like they had a huge north american push at the end of September (which also made sense to lower the amount of cars in the pipeline before the 'D' event unveils).

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

and @steveG3 no negativity taken, just wanted to clarify I'm posting all relevant media pieces here and not filtering for ones of high quality (FUD free) only.
 
A reminder that Elon was interviewed by Fox on Sept 17 (well after factory shutdown) and he said he was comfortable with Q3 numbers, barring unexpected shipment delays. And it seemed like they had a huge north american push at the end of September (which also made sense to lower the amount of cars in the pipeline before the 'D' event unveils).

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

and @steveG3 no negativity taken, just wanted to clarify I'm posting all relevant media pieces here and not filtering for ones of high quality (FUD free) only.

Yes. I remember that interview well. The 'impression' I got is that if all went well they would make delivery guidance. I believe all did go well and TM probably just made delivery numbers by emptying the pipeline and giving preference to local (Cali) deliveries the last week(s) of September. The factory probably was closed down longer/ramped up slower than EM/TM had wanted/predicted. Evidence would be all those people who initially had their deliveries pushed back only to have them reinstated later in the quarter.

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So now can we safely say that the 200-day SMA is broken?

The true definition is closing price is below 200dMA.
 
Indeed that appears to be the case. I worked in broadcast television, and we were subject to the fairness doctrine in politics and automatically extended it to anything else including financial matters. Those rules don't apply to the print media or cable TV. The Murdoch entities depend on advertising from the established oil and automotive industries. They mock the notion of anthropogenic climate change.

...

and, then this also today from the WSJ, as I read it, they are trying to imply Tesla is having to tradeoff pricing (and one could easily think profit margins) to lift "sagging sales."

Subtitle of article,

"Electric-Car Maker Looks to Lift Sagging U.S. Sales Through New Incentives"


first paragraph of article,

"Tesla Motors Inc. is offering sales incentives on its $71,000 and up Model S electric sedan, promising to lower the lease price of the sedan by 25% and to give buyers 90 days to return a vehicle if they are unhappy with it"

http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-unveils-lower-cost-lease-plan-1414427518?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12283851581796914843804580240510101449400.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009

while I think it's a fair question to ask how the up to 25% reduction in the lease offer was achieved, and whether it leads to lower margins for Tesla, this article seems designed to present Tesla as taking a hit from this, which no one knows. To me "incentives" in vehicle sales is generally equated with cost reductions... this savings may be about the confidence in residual values and the cost of funds of the lender in the lease program. In addition, the article rather highlights "sagging sales" as a conclusion, only towards the end mentioning that the company's CEO has said otherwise.
 
So after a so-so start at the opening, it broke down because of that sort of report that sales were down, then there was the CR that is not so bad after all, and maybe the 3.5 weeks of shutdown but that seems to have no impact.
We all know that the first point is just misinterpretation.
All in all nothing has changed so much since this morning's open and yet we loose 14$.
The 200 dma is officially broken at closing, intraday is not what matters, am I right? (although the price action is worrysome)


Edit: thanks for your answers on 200 dma while I was writing...
 
and, then this also today from the WSJ, as I read it, they are trying to imply Tesla is having to tradeoff pricing (and one could easily think profit margins) to lift "sagging sales."

Subtitle of article,

"Electric-Car Maker Looks to Lift Sagging U.S. Sales Through New Incentives"


first paragraph of article,

"Tesla Motors Inc. is offering sales incentives on its $71,000 and up Model S electric sedan, promising to lower the lease price of the sedan by 25% and to give buyers 90 days to return a vehicle if they are unhappy with it"

http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-unveils-lower-cost-lease-plan-1414427518?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12283851581796914843804580240510101449400.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009

while I think it's a fair question to ask how the up to 25% reduction in the lease offer was achieved, and whether it leads to lower margins for Tesla, this article seems designed to present conclusions no one knows, and it rather highlights "sagging sales" as a conclusion, only towards the end mentioning that the company's CEO has said otherwise.

Yup, expect higher quality sources to start debunking this claim. I believe Dan Galves (Credit Suisses) just took the first swipe.. I see the headline of CS calling the (I believe this) leasing report 'misleading'.
 
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