JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'd say that's inherent when getting more range from the same package. It probably won't move the stock, but it should, since it's proof of how upgradeable and future proof an EV can be.
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I'm left wondering what the crisis issues were, and what their solutions were.
Elon's world is much bigger than Tesla. He spends over half his time at SpaceX. Don't assuming all the "crisis" he referred to were Tesla-related.
My initial thought as well. I think he really should have someone ( maybe himself even) retread his proposed tweets before posting them
I have to agree. One of Elon's best qualities is his candour, I wouldn't change that for the world.LOL! H, E, double hockey sticks, NO! One simple, little, baby tweet and people have themselves all twisted up. It's classic and utterly priceless.
The Roadster battery news, while good for Roadster owners, will have little/no impact on TSLA IMO. The only way it moves the stock if the formal announcement includes mention that the battery has improved cell technology allowing for greater density and/or less weight to the pack.
Have to disagree. If personnel use account no issue but he uses it to release pr for tesla. As CEO and official source of information on company, he has responsibility to be precise and communicate with precision that does not lead to speculation. If you don't believe it's the "official" pr site for tesla count up tweets about tesla and compare to the number the pr person released over the past 3 yearsLOL! H, E, double hockey sticks, NO! One simple, little, baby tweet and people have themselves all twisted up. It's classic and utterly priceless.
It looks that there is a massive effort to deliver a lot of P85Ds by the end of the December. I was at the Devon, PA SC to replace 12V battery on my P85+ and did a quick walk down of the sales part of the parking lot there. I saw total of 13 cars ready for the pre-delivery prep, 7 of them P85Ds. A little later a tractor trailer with 7 more cars pulled over into the parking lot, carrying another 5 P85Ds.
I suspect that if they miss their numbers for the quarter (~33k) that the ASP increase of the D will make up for the difference. But, not sure how the market will react to that.
Mr. Market seems to have had their fill of "empty" promises and only numbers are going to talk. I could be wrong here, but I think until they get their numbers in line, any other announcements aren't going to do much. (Note that numbers in this case would also be meeting the initial deliveries of the Model X so showing progress toward that first delivery might also help). I am not at all saying this to be negative toward the company. I am still a firm believer in everything and know that 5 years from now, missing 2k cars is nothing compared to the million or so cars they are going to be hopefully producing, but in the short term Mr. Market wants to see progress in manufacturing.
I would like to think even more positively than that in that even though we are only getting the 33k deliveries the increased ASP will balance some of the miss from 35k. I haven't seen anything concrete that would indicate a miss of 33k... if they don't hit that number AT LEAST then we are going to be in for a rough quarter pretty much no matter what. outside of Q4 of last year we had been operating under "in-line" guidance, and then now last Q we had a miss AND a guidance downward of less than what they were saying. So if they miss 33k I don't think the market will be happy at all with this since we are already operating under a "miss" of 2k as it stands. Anything more and it is going to be devastating to the price.
This isn't an issue from a demand perspective... obviously. I don't think anyone in their right mind really sees Tesla as having a demand issue. But I think what was in the letter last Q was very apt to what the real issue with this company is, and what I think the market is going to start being quite harsh about and that is their inability to manufacture on a larger scale. All these hiccups in production is really starting to collect together and it has been dragging on the company for a while. If they can come out in Feb and say they are already at 1200+ cars a week then it will be very positive for the stock. And if they can come out with the 33k+ number... or by some shock, actually pull out their original 35k number then I think the market is going to be quite happy and that will be a catalyst to move the numbers.
Mr. Market seems to have had their fill of "empty" promises and only numbers are going to talk. I could be wrong here, but I think until they get their numbers in line, any other announcements aren't going to do much. (Note that numbers in this case would also be meeting the initial deliveries of the Model X so showing progress toward that first delivery might also help). I am not at all saying this to be negative toward the company. I am still a firm believer in everything and know that 5 years from now, missing 2k cars is nothing compared to the million or so cars they are going to be hopefully producing, but in the short term Mr. Market wants to see progress in manufacturing.
In the summer of 2013 I recall Elon stating exiting 2014 at a run rate of 800-1,000 per week. At that time the market was smitten about the 800 number. Fast forward to that date, Elon actually overachieved, we are exiting with at least 1,000 per and the prospect of exiting 1,200 is very real, as there has been media coverage on this.
In previous quarters, there has always been a last minute "big push," either to meet or beat numbers.. to me, whether TESLA misses or beats by 500-1,000 vehicle is irrelevant. It's all about 2015 guidance and X going forward. TESLA has been chosen as top pick for 2015 by FORBES, this is not by accident.
Bottom line, we need a win this quarter or I fear that people are really going to get uneasy about the future outlook of the company. A miss on 33k would be bad... no matter what the excuse... it won't go over well.
Given that management has been mum the past couple weeks where this forum was having respiratory failure, I believe the company is giving us subtle hints of its strength, had there been a blog or tweet defending the company's share value, then I would be a tiny bit concern. The message to be taken from Elon's silence here is, Mr. Market can go down all it wants, but we have bigger things to worry about because we know our product is selling out.
What would be good for management moving forward is to not give so much detail about exactly how long it's going to take to move to the next scale-up in production. For example, if they hadn't mentioned the line shutdown in the summer would take one week, nobody would have cared when it took two weeks instead. It's not like there is an industry benchmark that they are being compared to that they have to meet--most everything they do is unchartered territory and quite innovative. They should be admired for all the accomplishments in manufacturing vs. criticized if things take slightly more time. And management can help by being a little more vague about time frames.
Having said that, form a rational investor's point of view I don't care if they miss by a thousand cars due to these external factors. And I am not even talking about the long term "great scheme of things" point of view when we say, with Tesla @ 500k cars in 5-6 years, who cares if '14 was 32 or 33k? I am talking about short term, Q1. The possible "miss" in this last quarter is not because of any major design or mechanical issue damaging the brand, the image, the financials (recall) or any sudden drop in demand with mass cancellations. We have a strike at the port causing havoc for hundreds of companies, I imagine; we have a minor screwup with the first batch of next gen seats they have alredy fixed (awaiting new parts); and we had the regulatory issue with the sticker/ceritifcation that took sokme time to get done (resolved).
So they may deliver 1k less cars in December than planned and 1k more cars in January than planned (deliveries slipping to January). Who cares? They are selling everything they produce, have sold out production for months ahead, are ramping production as planned and the only thing more insane than the acceleration of the D is probably the margin on that car.