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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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InTheShadows
Active Member
It's exactly like it was when we were trying to break $36, only this time I have options and not just common.
Nevermind. Found out why:
On Bloomberg Terminal just now:
15:04 Tesla Feb. Model S China Registrations Fall 45% MoM: JL Warren
"(Bloomberg) -- Registrations of Tesla’s Model S cars in China in Feb. drop to 260 from 469 in Jan., according to JL Warren Capital.
TSLA also imported 63 cars in China last mo. making YTD imports 73 SLA forecasts 74% rise to its 55k sales worldwide this yr; didn’t give China outlook
~2,500 Model S cars registered in China last yr, JL Warren est. ~1,600 unregistered in the country
NOTE: March 13, Tesla Reassigns Sales Chief After Slow Start to China Deliveries
NOTE: Feb. 11, Musk Boosts 2015 Tesla Forecast While Revamping China Strategy"
On Bloomberg Terminal just now:
15:04 Tesla Feb. Model S China Registrations Fall 45% MoM: JL Warren
"(Bloomberg) -- Registrations of Tesla’s Model S cars in China in Feb. drop to 260 from 469 in Jan., according to JL Warren Capital.
TSLA also imported 63 cars in China last mo. making YTD imports 73 SLA forecasts 74% rise to its 55k sales worldwide this yr; didn’t give China outlook
~2,500 Model S cars registered in China last yr, JL Warren est. ~1,600 unregistered in the country
NOTE: March 13, Tesla Reassigns Sales Chief After Slow Start to China Deliveries
NOTE: Feb. 11, Musk Boosts 2015 Tesla Forecast While Revamping China Strategy"
I remember very few days that Tesla went down three days in a row. I've been adding to my position, but the knife edge seems to be a little sharper this time. I thought the bottom was at 191.01, but I was quite wrong. Predicting the bottom is a challenging, but in the past it's proved very fruitful.
Agreed, I talked to the Columbus Service Center and they said they were absolutely slammed with deliveries through the end of the month. I know that's normal for Tesla, but I had a small issue and they schedule me in the second week of April. They have all hands on deck for deliveries.
I am expecting Elon to play the demand card (related to dealers) in April. Here is my reasoning.
Since Model X is due anytime in 3-q, there is going to be anxiety among new buyers whether to wait to see what it is or to order a new Model S. Look what happened with China where people cancelled orders (with deposits gone) once P85D was announced. Even though people here say Model X is a different category, and it is, I feel that there will be anxiety for some people to want to know more about X before they commit to X or S. This will slow down new reservations in coming months and Elon may use his card to counter that.
Since Model X is due anytime in 3-q, there is going to be anxiety among new buyers whether to wait to see what it is or to order a new Model S. Look what happened with China where people cancelled orders (with deposits gone) once P85D was announced. Even though people here say Model X is a different category, and it is, I feel that there will be anxiety for some people to want to know more about X before they commit to X or S. This will slow down new reservations in coming months and Elon may use his card to counter that.
Jan-Feb, registration 469+260=729, imports 73. It's very likely the gap between registration and imports could be ~1000 in Q1, that should be counted as inventory sales and it would be the surprise to Q1 ER.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
thx Maoing. Let me see if I understand you correctly:
Let's say for example that Tesla produced 12k cars in Q1 and Delivered 10k of them (worldwide sales)
Additionally, Tesla sold 500 cars in China during Q1 that were "old orphaned cars" that originally arrived in China last year. I assume these cars are sold as "new".
Therefore Tesla's sales during Q1 was 10,500 plus any other Inventory cars sold in other countries except China (already counted above)
following this logic above, I see what you mean... The sale of inventory cars is an upside bonus to Q1.
also, "used" car sales are a separate revenue stream from the above example.
The biggest drag on Tesla earnings: China
Wednesday, 11 Feb 2015 | 6:32 PM ETJunheng Li, head of Research at JL Warren Capital, says demand for Tesla's luxury electric cars in in China is seeing a "disconnect between expectations and reality."
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000353983
Pretty old article, right? Why would this just hit the Bloomberg wires now?
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Did no one post this news, or did I miss something?
Pro-Tesla Bill Passes 48-4 In Georgia – Sales Cap Of 150 Per Year Removed
Flux, that wasn't on Bloomberg, I highlighted the date so there wouldn't be confusion but thought it would be helpful to those discussing the China situation & the JL Warren analyst in particular. I don't remember that video being shared here & since the China situation is a bit murky for many of us its nice to see a video interview.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It looks like the $5k incentive is gone. Same Rep that sponsored the "Tesla" bill sponsored the amendment to get rid of the BEV incentive.
We shall see how LEAF sales hold up without $5k incentive and lease deals that are "almost free" when gasoline savings are considered.
Same thing may happen in Texas. Tesla in Texas officially open for business once Texas State incentive is gone.
Movement a foot in California State Legislature to limit BEV incentives to vehicles that cost less than $40k.
Yup. That's what I meant. With low guidance (9500), 1400 undelivered cars at end of Q4, ~1500 inventories around the world. I really believe TM should achieve huge beat for Q1.
Here is a SA article http://seekingalpha.com/article/2940426-teslas-claims-of-being-production-constrained-dont-add-up, which claims the cumulative production in excess of deliveries between Q1 2013 and Q4 2014. It's 5000. By deducting about 2000 from demo cars and in transition cars, so it still leaves 3000 for inventory cars. We know 1400 of them just can't be delivered by end of Q4, then 1000 inventory in China and ~500 in RoW due to cancellation for D is reasonable guess.
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