Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[maoing]

I told your guys last Friday, bottom has been reached :biggrin:

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I told your guys last Friday, bottom has been reached :biggrin:

What is your prediction with respect to a pop on Monday given the weak economic news out today?

 

[FluxCap]

What is your prediction with respect to a pop on Monday given the weak economic news out today?

$225 soon.

 

[AlMc]

So this is gonna make for a fun Monday for sure! I think the biggest downer for TSLA over the past few weeks was the FUD that started spreading and the bear analysts adding fuel to the fire by claiming Q1 for Europe is looking really bad.

Not that we fell for it, as the EU thread did an amazing job over the past few days to collect good hard data that indicated 3000+ for Q1 in the region, which made it clear a miss is almost impossible. Still, this was just enough to push the market over and keep TSLA under 190.

Now Monday, oh boy.... releasing this news on Good Friday is almost too mean. The news has 3 days to get to everyone by the time the market opens. I am readying the popcorn.

PS: I am not expecting one of those legendary squeezes, but I tend to agree with those who say TSLA is actually underpriced these days, so I do expect a pop next week.

What is your prediction with respect to a pop on Monday given the weak economic news out today?

The 10% delivery beat will help us above $200 next week but I agree that it will not be a legendary squeeze of the past. I really am just hoping that this has turned the momentum from being down/sideways to being up and moving us above the 200 DMA before ER.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Thanks to Flux and AIMc. Exciting times.

 

[hockeythug]

Not to be a Debbie Downer... but do these numbers include the deliveries that were delayed from Q4 2014 and carried over to Q1 2015? About 1400 cars slipped from Dec 2014 into Jan 2015 as I remember.

This will be the bear argument on monday. "Tesla Misses 1Q15 Deliveries". Which they technically did.

 

[sundaymorning]

Looking back on last Q's drop, it was heaven-sent; made some money on puts, had a chance to load up on calls. Converted to 2017 leaps at a discount, which translated to lower taxes and the price Monday is still below $220. All this is happening while Tesla made significant improvements on gigafactory, Model S, X and 3. Where else can we find another stock like this? Momentum will undoubtedly reverse for another 2-3 months till next Q. There are no more port strikes, stationary storage is underway and there's a little earnings boaster called X, which is imminent for summer.

I've been 100% in on this Q, is it time to think about 110% with some margins? With 25,000,000 shorts I won't be able to contain myself Monday. Stop me before I get knee deep on margins.

 

[Drax7]

This is my opinion punctuates a bottom and the end of the downtrend, in order to get a sustained uptrend we need to beat earnings and ever growing sales for several quarters. We shall see.

 

[Gtoffo]

Looking back on last Q's drop, it was heaven-sent; made some money on puts, had a chance to load up on calls. Converted to 2017 leaps at a discount, which translated to lower taxes and the price Monday is still below $220. All this is happening while Tesla made significant improvements on gigafactory, Model S, X and 3. Where else can we find another stock like this? Momentum will undoubtedly reverse for another 2-3 months till next Q. There are no more port strikes, stationary storage is underway and there's a little earnings boaster called X, which is imminent for summer.

I've been 100% in on this Q, is it time to think about 110% with some margins? With 25,000,000 shorts I won't be able to contain myself Monday. Stop me before I get knee deep on margins.

I agree the stock has been undervalued for quite some time. But remember the market can remain irrational longer than you can be solvent.

Just because we are right and the stock should go up it doesn't mean it will.

 

[MikeC]

What I like about this immediate announcement policy is that it will allow the post-ER/CC headlines to be more about substantial company news instead of just focused on how many deliveries happened to be tallied in the quarter.

 

[chickensevil]

This will be the bear argument on monday. "Tesla Misses 1Q15 Deliveries". Which they technically did.

It already is... lol. Taken from a comment on a Seeking Alpha article:

These figures are an unmitigated disaster.
Unit deliveries increased by only 200 vehicles (2%) from 4q 2014 despite the fact that Tesla claims that 1400 deliveries slipped from 4q 2014 to 1q 2015. Adjusting for this and deliveries would have been 8600 in 1q vs 11200 in 4q, for a staggering decline of 24%.
It proves once again that Tesla is severely demand constrained.
Add in margin degradation from the surging dollar, exploding SGA and R&D, massive capex escalation and escalating competition and it is game over for Enron Musk.

 

[sub]

I don't sense a major squeeze coming based on these delivery numbers but I've got some April 220's so I'm hoping I'm wrong. I had already written them off but I've seen stranger things happen.

 

[sundaymorning]

This will be the bear argument on monday. "Tesla Misses 1Q15 Deliveries". Which they technically did.

Tesla held a "Production Party" yesterday. I'm anticipating they made significant improvements to the production line. With the port strike out of the way, it could mean a very nice Q2. From reading other threads, Tesla actually held back deliveries on some vehicles for next quarter bc they were absolutely swamped.

 

[hockeythug]

Tesla held a "Production Party" yesterday. I'm anticipating they made significant improvements to the production line. With the port strike out of the way, it could mean a very nice Q2. From reading other threads, Tesla actually held back deliveries on some vehicles for next quarter bc they were absolutely swamped.

They need to adjust their quarterly projections until they stop playing a shell game with deliveries then.

 

[AlMc]

Tesla held a "Production Party" yesterday. I'm anticipating they made significant improvements to the production line. With the port strike out of the way, it could mean a very nice Q2. From reading other threads, Tesla actually held back deliveries on some vehicles for next quarter bc they were absolutely swamped.

They need to adjust their quarterly projections until they stop playing a shell game with deliveries then.

I am just real happy that they have decided to release delivery information within 3 days of the end of each quarter ( I wish they would do it monthly!) as it ends the big guessing games and dispells at least some of the FUD moving forward. I believe it also shows the confidence they feel about hitting delivery targets.

 

[hockeythug]

Actual 1Q deliveries were 8,630 adjusting for the 1,400 that missed 4Q14. If 40% of the 55,000 deliveries will be in the first half of the year as stated by Tesla, then 13,371 deliveries will have to occur in 2Q15.

 

[sundaymorning]

They need to adjust their quarterly projections until they stop playing a shell game with deliveries then.

The stock market in general is a cat and mouse game, a tug of war between Bulls and bears. Tesla is evolving to meet bears' dirty tactic of misrepresenting demand. The more bears that continue to resist on seeking alpha this weekend and next, the harder they'll fall. With Tesla being so compressed and weighted down, the "spring theory" will be tested come Monday. I personally wouldn't want to be in front of this train, but misinformation from Debbie's or bears may cause more shorts to enter at a higher price, which they may deem unresistible as a buying opportunity. This in turn can cause a continual squeeze till stationary announcements. Let's not forget that many analysts will be working on a new model based on this beat. Upgrads in the past Q may have little weight, but times are changing, and may carry more weight this time around.

 

[trils0n]

Was the guidance for 1Q including the 1400 from the previous quarter? That was the impression I got, but could be wrong.

 

[AlMc]

Actual 1Q deliveries were 8,630 adjusting for the 1,400 that missed 4Q14. If 40% of the 55,000 deliveries will be in the first half of the year as stated by Tesla, then 13,371 deliveries will have to occur in 2Q15.

I don't agree. I have been more bearish than bullish on TSLA lately but one reason TSLA took a beating after Q4 was because they did not deliver those 1,400 cars. So, we can't turn around now and penailize them if they are part of the roughly 10.5K deliveries now. Personally, I will be good with 12K deliveries in Q2. Now, will the market be using your math or mine I can not say.

 

[sundaymorning]

I don't agree. I have been more bearish than bullish on TSLA lately but one reason TSLA took a beating after Q4 was because they did not deliver those 1,400 cars. So, we can't turn around now and penailize them if they are part of the roughly 10.5K deliveries now. Personally, I will be good with 12K deliveries in Q2. Now, will the market be using your math or mine I can not say.

Had we missed again this quarter, the market will have chosen hockey's math. But with a beat, it's easy to see whose math Mr. Market will be using..