Citizen-T
Active Member
I'm guessing that these sales numbers do not include CPO sales. I doubt there are a lot of those, but something to keep in mind.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Shouldn't be that big of a deal... yet. The CPO program isn't official to the press yet and they accept a CPO car and deliver a new one at the same time. The big question is how many CPO cars stay on the "lot". If they all get sold that would be a REALLY good sign for an appetite for Model S.
doggusfluffy
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
yes. This is a big beat. Two years ago they beat by 250 cars (4750) and that was a big deal too...
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well, I was off by a couple days but still... Boom!
sundaymorning
Active Member
You made a home run prediction. In 2013 the stock plowed through record ATH betweenApril and May 28th, from the price of $42 to the price of $114.90. Many investors here were contemplating a sales strategy of $45 and rebuying at $35. Will investors repeat this same mistake, will history repeat itself? In 2013 we had nothing to look forward to except "amazing demand". Fast forward 2 years and demand is still there, while X reservations is higher than S. Just how much will stationary storage add to our coffers in 2016? And how much will CPO make a difference? We had none of these catalysts in 2013, yet it's all here in 2015! We won't see catalysts like this again till Gen3 prototype IMO. The after 2016 guidance, it's gigafactory completion. The dominos are all lined up.
This:
When Elon says, "I'm going to sell 55,000 cars, starting with 9,500 in Q1", I take that to mean that he has a plan to do so. In fact, we mostly understand that plan, and so ought Karl Brauer. The plan is simple:
* Introduce the Model X
* Increase production capacity of the line
Both are on track. Why the glum headline?
sundaymorning
Active Member
The ramp up in production isn't linear as Karl and bears have manipulated the situation to be. Tesla's production curve from Q1-Q4 is an "S curve". This was stated in 2012 by Elon during CC. If analysts can't understand the simple mathematical difference between delivery and production, they sure as heck won't know what an "S curve" is capable of. Quite frankly, I welcome bears, especially when TSLA is bullish, the more the merrier.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
These posts should probably be in the Debunking FUD thread, but it makes we really wonder how many unbelievably stupid "analysts" and financial "journalists" and other "professionals" are out there. They haven't heard of the concept of compound growth? Really?
To me as a European it's like watching that guy who's always on Fox News talking. I think to my self: is this really for real? Does he really believe the words coming out of his mouth? I'm incredulous.
Those 1400 that slipped into January were mentioned in the report for Q4 2014 that was distributed on 2015 FEB 11.
That same report provided an estimate of 9500 deliveries in Q1 2015: Form 8-K
10,030 beats 9500.
I wouldn't be surprised if some from Q1 have slipped into Q2.
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hockeythug
Active Member
For the final time on here, take out the 1,400 and it's a miss for the quarter and a 12% decline from Q4. Unless Tesla says otherwise thats what I'm going with.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Do you think they stopped producing cars in the factory a couple if weeks before March 31st? I don't get your reasoning? I'm not being confrontational but honestly please explain your line of thinking.
They specifically outlined in the Q1 conference call that the 1,400 from Q4 should not be considered as "bonus" deliveries. They were going to increase cars in transit for the quarter and that would suck up the extra 1,400 leftover units from Q4.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
It appears the 1400 you're talking about was part of the 9500 predicted. (Curt has it right, imo.) Which means it is not a decline, but rather an increase.
It's obvious from the report in February that the 1400 were known before the estimate was made of 9500. The estimate was beaten.
Based on statements from those whose deliveries have been delayed from March into April, a significant number of deliveries likely slipped from Q1 into Q2.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
yep. It's a beat. And more so it was evident to me that tesla wasn't scrambling hard to hit this beat at the end of the quarter.
I agree, there is cars that will get delivered in Q2 ("filling the pipe") AND there was bound to be a some cars that were produced and put into stores as demo cars and other newer cars moved into the "loaner" fleet.
It will be interesting to see the actual production numbers on the earnings call. I know tesla stated they wanted to focus on labor productivity improvements in Q1.
sub
Active Member
Good luck with that. Curt has pointed out exactly what Tesla and Elon stated the goal was this qtr. it's a beat.
Exactly!!! You cannot exclude these 1400 from Q4 and then try and say that they were already accounted for in Q4 when you talk about Q1. They must be accounted for somewhere and since they were excluded from the Q4 numbers, they must be in the Q1 numbers, both guided and actual.
I also agree that they likely have finally ended the quarter end rush to deliver every last car possible and have normalized operations to let a more even distribution of deliveries occur (ie allowing cars to slip to Q2 when before they would have made sure they were delivered in the previous quarter). It was a perfect time to do this given the 1400 left over from Q4.
If the bears want to falsely claim a miss, let them. They are going to face reality sometime this year with an unrelenting squeeze.
The greatest impact of this morning’s disclosure may result from this: “Going forward, Tesla will publish the number of new car deliveries within three days of quarter end.”
This seems to imply confidence in ever increasing delivery rates. Rolling thunder for short sellers.
This seems to imply confidence in ever increasing delivery rates. Rolling thunder for short sellers.
For a final time on here: no.
Beginning of 8-K says 1400 to be produced will be delivered in Q1, end of the 8-K says Q1 delivery total will be 9500. So the math is, indeed, pretty simple. Guidance was beaten by 530.
"First quarter production is expected to be about 10,000 vehicles due to it being a shorter quarter than in Q4 and approximately a week of factory downtime to allow the workforce to rest and tooling upgrades. Cars in transit to Europe and Asia must grow to support those markets, so we plan to deliver approximately 9,500 vehicles in Q1."
So unles you think they intended to say they will deliver 9500 cars out of 10k produced, "growing" the number of cars in the pipline from the 1k plus they communicated in previous quarters to 500, your numbers don't even add up.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Directly from the q4 letter:
"Cars in transit to Europe and Asia must grow to support those markets, so we plan to deliver approximately 9,500 vehicles in Q1, an increase of over 47% from Q1 last year."
"Cars in transit to Europe and Asia must grow to support those markets, so we plan to deliver approximately 9,500 vehicles in Q1, an increase of over 47% from Q1 last year."
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