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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Haha guys. Yeah there's different psychology in play. My main point is that I love that Elon keeps pushing pushing pushing all the time.

And no, I don't run that fast. I did run 10km at 39 minutes once though, but that was before I had 3 children and no time :)
 
I really don't either. Comments like this can make the job of advocating at the state level (in WV or any other state) harder for those of us fighting the political fights, both within Tesla and on Tesla's behalf. I would hope for a clarification Tweet from Elon that he was making light of the dealership lobby and their paid-for regulatory capture (President of WV Senate is an auto dealership boss), and not the people of West Virginia.

Are we all reading the same tweet?

We just got banned in West Virginia. Oh no

I'd say that's a very mild response to a government stopping you from selling a perfectly legal product.
 
Are we all reading the same tweet?



I'd say that's a very mild response to a government stopping you from selling a perfectly legal product.

There is an implied sarcasm and belittling of the people of West Virginia in the "Oh no" that portrays an image that plays right into the hands of critics and negative media portrayals of Tesla. It's a political messaging thing. Easy to fix with a clarification.

It's not the end of the world, just something I'd like to see cleaned up.
 
There is an implied sarcasm and belittling of the people of West Virginia...

Ah, not 'the people of West Virginia' rather 'the few politicians and dealership owners in West Virginia who are afraid of losing control of their money making machine and have decided it's best that no one in West Virginia can easily and without hoop jumping buy a car directly from Tesla, etc., etc., etc...'. That seemed pretty obvious to me, particular since in that tweet is a link to an article.

... in the "Oh no" that portrays an image that plays right into the hands of critics and negative media portrayals of Tesla.

As if it matters what Elon says one way or another. People will hear what they want to hear - case in point 'the people of West Virginia'.
 
There is an implied sarcasm and belittling of the people of West Virginia in the "Oh no" that portrays an image that plays right into the hands of critics and negative media portrayals of Tesla. It's a political messaging thing. Easy to fix with a clarification.

It's not the end of the world, just something I'd like to see cleaned up.

For what it's worth, that's not how I read it. The politicians in West Virginia owe some answers to their constituents. I read it as a put down of corrupt politics.
 
Are we all reading the same tweet?



I'd say that's a very mild response to a government stopping you from selling a perfectly legal product.
The problem with the tweet is that it is not directed at the ones responsible for this stupid decision, but to the state as a whole. It implies quite transparently that West Virginia is so tiny that it doesn't affect the mighty Tesla one bit.

Musk should direct his sarcasm towards the corrupt representatives who failed in their duty to, you know, represent the interests of those who elected them. (That is, unless you take the view that they were elected by money, which is unfortunately a reasonable assessment these days.)
 
There is an implied sarcasm and belittling of the people of West Virginia in the "Oh no" that portrays an image that plays right into the hands of critics and negative media portrayals of Tesla. It's a political messaging thing. Easy to fix with a clarification.

It's not the end of the world, just something I'd like to see cleaned up.

Reading the responses to Elon's tweet, I'd say that Americans generally (presumably most of the replies) are outright attacking and disparaging WV.

I see comments along the lines of "Stone Age", "moochers and looters", and even a joke about marrying a cousin.

What I think is unfortunate is that the nationwide mockery is conflating a whole bunch of issues: poverty, the coal industry, and dealer protectionism. The problem is that there have been few opportunities outside of coal for many people in West Virginia, and the decline of the coal industry, due in large part to the natural gas revolution in neighboring states, is making the situation worse. What's needed is for someone to offer WV and it's people a plan away from coal. Simply mocking poverty and coal does nothing to improve the situation.
 
He did. He linked the news article in the same tweet that talks about those representatives. We also know that when he said 'We just got banned in West Virginia' it wasn't the residents of West Virginia, but the representatives who did the banning.
His choice of words was poor, notwithstanding the link. Of course we know it wasn't the residents, but Elon's phrasing leaves too much room for misinterpretation, even granting that it wasn't his intent to mock the people of West Virginia. When you operate in an environment as hostile as the one Tesla has to face every day in the media, it's not smart to rely on the most charitable reading of your words.
 
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They are a straightforward calculation of deliveries, asp, and some assumed PE. I am not sure he shared it with TMC. Even Elon's blind faith price target sets a similar trajectory.

Actually, he did write about it. This is what I found by digging around:

I've created my own price forecasts with super low, low-mid, mid-high and super high trading ranges from now until 2020. I've been hesitant on sharing the details since I'd much rather people create their own forecasts that are different than mine because everyone's assumptions are different. But I probably will eventually share the trading ranges and their calculations in the series I'm doing on my thread. I just want to lay out the foundation so people know how to use it and how to adjust it to make it their own.

But according to my own trading ranges, I see TSLA at the mid-high range right now. (btw, with a growth stock like TSLA, I think a mid-high trading range is a healthy zone.)

So, this is how I approach it with my long-term investments (short-term trading is vastly more complicated):

Super high range - hold stock
Mid-high range - hold stock
Low-mid range - buy stock. if approaches super low range, buy LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)
Super low range - buy LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)

This would apply for a taxable account. In a tax-deferred account, things are vastly different because taxes are deferred. In a tax-deferred account, I would consider the following:

Super high range - hold stock (if range goes over super-high range, then start selling stock to raise cash for correction)
Mid-high range - hold stock and LEAPs (if LEAPs purchased in low range and still has around 1 year left. if less than 1 year left, convert to stock.)
Low-mid range - buy stock. if approaches super low range, buy LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)
Super low range - sell stock, buy all LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)

But again, there's a lot of assumptions here. First, the long-term story of the company remains unchanged and has super growth potential. Second, one's price forecasts are accurate.

Regarding price forecast, for the super low range I calculate what a bargain investor like Warren Buffet would pay for Tesla in a time when the long-term story is in tact but the sentiment has turned extremely poor. This is the super low range and I don't expect it to enter this range for long because deep-pocketed bargain investors will sweep up the stock at this price. This is why I was able to recommend buying TSLA so strongly sub $135 last November since it was approaching super low trading range but the long-term story was in tact (I strongly believed they would overcome the fire issues).

For the super high range I calculate at what point will lots of institutions sell their TSLA holdings because the stock price is too high to justify (ie., the multiple of future projected potential earnings is just way too high for new institutional buyers to come in). In other words, the super high range is when TSLA doesn't make sense in terms of the multiples that investors are giving. Oftentimes, this multiple is roughly about double that of what the bargain investor would pay for potential earnings. I use "potential earnings" as the profit the company would have if they stopped invested and that money was turned into profit instead. Take that profit number 1-2 years out or so (that's what is visible to most investors) and figure a bargain investor would give 15-20x multiple, while the enthusiastic investor (hyped up) will give 35-40x multiple. This establishes the super low range and the super high range. Then, you can fill out the low-mid and the mid-high ranges from that.

Anyway, I probably need to go on in more detail for all this to make sense since there's a lot of numbers involved. But I think my point is that I believe that you can actually calculate the trading ranges investors are willing to give (albeit it takes a lot of numbers/calculations/etc), and those ranges can help make investment decisions.

Click on the little >> icon to go to the original post. Not sure if there is any other more descriptive post.
 
The problem with the tweet is that it is not directed at the ones responsible for this stupid decision, but to the state as a whole. It implies quite transparently that West Virginia is so tiny that it doesn't affect the mighty Tesla one bit.

My problem is more with the responses to the tweet. These aren't Elon's fault, but I agree with several people in posts above that disparaging others doesn't ever get them to be on your side.

He did. He linked the news article in the same tweet that talks about those representatives. We also know that when he said 'We just got banned in West Virginia' it wasn't the residents of West Virginia, but the representatives who did the banning.

Even if you didn't read the tweet to be insulting to West Virginia, I think it's clear that many Twitter users did, and decided to pile on.
 
Elon can't control and should not consider the way some individuals may respond to his tweet. We are in an unfortunate era where there will always be someone offended by something at any point in time. When people rightly point out that NY and CT are the only two states that don't allow UFC fights I'm not personally insulted. If someone implied it was because of a corrupt political system in NYS I'm not personally insulted.
 
I don't like that Elon is belittling West Virginia. Sure, it's not an important market for Tesla, but there's no need to bad-talk the state.

Agreed. Of course, a tesla in wv will make less positive environmental change that any other state because of their dirty energy, so selling them elsewhere makes more impact, but still given that the states entire industry is electricity generation, one would think they would embrace EVs.
 
As I have friends in and from WVa, and because I'm from a state that has all sorts of reasons to be the butt of jokes, and just because I'm a sensitive guy ;) , I wish Mr Musk had fit one more word in his tweet, as in: West Virginia's politicians just banned Tesla. Oh no.

I think that would have been not only nicely more effective, but absolutely pointing in the right direction and hugely more proof against counter-attacks.

20/20 hindsight is so nice.
 
Even if you didn't read the tweet to be insulting to West Virginia, I think it's clear that many Twitter users did, and decided to pile on.

My take is that when people automatically think the worst of others, it's more a reflection of themselves. As is evident, there are just as many people who didn't read the tweet as an insult to all the people of West Virginia. You can't be offended by someone else unless you want to be.
 
Not to take this therad waaaay off track, but I say this as someone who feels ashamed about their own government: you guys have to stop acquiting people for bad politicians. Seriosuly. It's not Martians who elect these people, it's us, citizens. So if the gorenments is corrupt/stupid/etc., guess what, who put them in place? (And yes, I know not everyone voted for them, just like i didn't vote for ours, but still, it's the represnation of the opinion of the majority of my peers whether I like it or not). Are we going to pretend that the voters of X state are learning just now, that their politicians are hired guns for big interest groups like auto dealers?

So if Elon wrote the same comment of my country ("we've just been banned in Hungary, a market of 10 million people, oh no") I would not be offended. He would make a fair point and I certainly understand his frustration. BTW I am still puzzled how somthing like this is not ending up with the federal Supreme Court. A state banning the direct sales of a legal product, essentially the freedom to produce and sell, for no good reason. Isn't this utterly un-American? It's not like this is medicine or hazardous materials and it's hard to argue a mandated dealer network would serve road safety better then the company who made the car in the first place.
 
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