Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Sanny]

Just read in another thread about a Tesla owner in Turkey, learning a hard way the limits of the driver assist (autopilot) functionality. Made me wonder - what could be the reaction of the market on a potential crash with Model S autopilot mode on? I still remember very well why the f*** word is a taboo on the forum, and it looks like anybody can easily stage a crash, knowing existing autopilot limitations. The media and trading bots can rise the issue very quickly. Do not want to go into the details, but the possibility, and how easily it can be done with today media and social media bot networks, worries me.

 

[FluxCap]

Tesla Energy getting more exposure. Good to see.

Tesla Energy’s goal? Changing the “energy infrastructure of the worldâ€￾ | Ars Technica

 

[vgrinshpun]

I've posted some stats about the total 2014 Li-Ion battery based energy storage deployment vs. one week orders for Tesla PowerWall and PowerPack. The results are unbelievable. I am wondering what it will take smart money to add 2 and 2 and get the true significance of the "Missing Piece" event, because this could really propel TSLA to much, much higher level...

 

[30seconds]

In terms of plausible events that aren't in the current valuation is an investment by a private equity group / sovereign wealth fund to build a GF in whatever region they are in. Not only would the GF provide a good return on capital, they might be able to work a deal so that there is some percentage of output dedicated for the local market thereby making local energy use more efficient. This would be a huge boost for tesla.

Some example countries of interest - Australia, China, Singapore, India, Saudi Arabia, Japan - all would have the capital, the energy intensive economy and the interest in additional upside as an exporter of excess capacity. All have political reasons not to, but private equity funds operate outside of pure political control in these countries.

 

[Gerardf]

Real curious about TSLA this week. Googling around and talking to people I see how more-and-more people are starting to see how big the March 30 announcement was and how enormous the potential market in data centers and utilities is that is there for Tesla to grab. Also see growing trust in Model-X deliveries this year and Model-3 being for real.

Very hard to give timing, but sooner or later SP will react as people "want in".

 

[CyberDutchie]

Adam Jonas has another note out this morning. Seems like he's walking back his "eye watering cash burn" statement a bit, after talking to investors. Funny that investors are telling him how it is. Isn't it supposed to be the other way around? :smile:

Investors expressing little if any real concern over liquidity and/or ability to raise new funds. On our math, Tesla will end 2015 with gross cash equal to only one quarter of combined spending on capex and R&D. Most auto companies we cover would carry gross cash equal to several years of capex + R&D. As we discuss the topic of Tesla’s tight 2H liquidity position with investors, it is clear to us there is nearly a uniform acceptance of the situation and a calmness and confidence around the company’s ability to address cash needs. “Adam, this is a $30bn company with a proven product in the market... this is not the same company who didn’t know where its next dime might come from when it was a $20 stock.” Other investors are quite excited about the prospect of Tesla having the opportunity to invest many more billions of fresh capital into the business to expand its technical, human and physical capacity to affect change on a widening array of mission-critical business models.

 

[Johan]

Adam Jonas has another note out this morning. Seems like he's walking back his "eye watering cash burn" statement a bit, after talking to investors. Funny that investors are telling him how it is. Isn't it supposed to be the other way around? :smile:

Apparently Morgan Stanley clients have acculmulated enough stock and options (or sold options) at a lower stock price, so now he can tone down his previous statements and let the stock run...

 

[JRP3]

Wow, AJ basically said he got it wrong and is changing his outlook. I give him credit for that.

 

[Cattledog]

Adam Jonas has another note out this morning. Seems like he's walking back his "eye watering cash burn" statement a bit, after talking to investors. Funny that investors are telling him how it is. Isn't it supposed to be the other way around? :smile:

The whole addressing himself in the 3rd person is sort of weird, especially using the tone like his clients are his Econ 101 professor. I'm not sure why he didn't just phrase it, "After extensive additional research..."

 

[Causalien]

Wow, AJ basically said he got it wrong and is changing his outlook. I give him credit for that.

No credit. It's the same maneuver as last time around the self driving car event. Investors following him are just being milked. Stop mentioning him and replace him with UBS Ben Callo.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Adam Jonas has another note out this morning. Seems like he's walking back his "eye watering cash burn" statement a bit, after talking to investors. Funny that investors are telling him how it is. Isn't it supposed to be the other way around? :smile:

Told ya all: "cash burn" is out - "cash deployment" is in :biggrin:

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No credit. It's the same maneuver as last time around the self driving car event. Investors following him are just being milked. Stop mentioning him and replace him with UBS Ben Callo.

Just to clarify, Ben Callo is with Baird.

 

[Cattledog]

Told ya all: "cash burn" is out - "cash deployment" is in :biggrin:

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Just to clarify, Ben Callo is with Baird.

And not to be a bean counter, but it's with a K, Kallo.

 

[vgrinshpun]

And not to be a bean counter, but it's with a K, Kallo.

Ha, good catch :smile:

 

[Drax7]

Andrea Jones seems the best.

 

[Gerardf]

Already 500k shares traded, and up more than 4 points, above 240 now.. . Maybe some do actually 'want in" now

Toyota (TM) almost 3% down.. Looks like some "want out" there..

 

[Citizen-T]

Man, remember when I was buying those $240 2017 LEAPs while the stock price was in the 180s? Those were good times. In the money today!

 

[Causalien]

By the way, anyone posted any rebuttals to Zero Hedge's hit piece yet? I am not a battery expert so I am twiddling my thumbs on that one.

 

[InTheShadows]

Already 500k shares traded, and up more than 4 points, above 240 now.. . Maybe some do actually 'want in" now

Nope, they got in last week. Friday was heavily manipulated. They bought everything then with the negative notes. And everyone accumulated and now they issue a positive note to let the stock run free. Its monthly opex. The people that absolutely knew for certain that this was going to happen will make money hand over fist this week.

 

[Curt Renz]

Adam Jonas has another note out this morning. Seems like he's walking back his "eye watering cash burn" statement a bit, after talking to investors. Funny that investors are telling him how it is. Isn't it supposed to be the other way around? :smile:

Actually, an analyst's job should be to estimate the price at which investors will be trading the stock a year from now, and not to tell them what they should be paying according to academic financial models.

 

[Gerardf]

Nope, they got in last week. Friday was heavily manipulated. They bought everything then with the negative notes. And everyone accumulated and now they issue a positive note to let the stock run free. Its monthly opex. The people that absolutely knew for certain that this was going to happen will make money hand over fist this week.

Interesting remark. Thanks !