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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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chickensevil
Active Member
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
So Johan, based on this, if you were to purchase 100 shares today what is your best guess they would be worth after a very successful Model 3 launch? Elon said 2700% in 10 years. Do you really think that is a possibility?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I like jhm's BFT (blind faith target) trajectory, which coincides with Elon's statements. Depending on when M3 launches (second half 2017?) I'm thinking $400 ballpark figure. But now we have the whole Tesla Energy business to incorporate to our modeling, which is not yet easy.
So 100 shares would be worth $40000. Don't hold me to it though!
IMO the short squeeze phenomenon can only augment raises in stock price and exacerbate them, but short squeezing in it self does not add real value to the stock. In time the price of TSLA will turn more and more value based, as opposed to today where part of the price is value based (future earnings and potential) and partly due to speculation and short-term market moves ("momo stock").
If we get a short squeeze "past" the "actual" value investing based price that price level won't be sustainable over time. Were we able to identify such a move we could all profit on the way down again, from the exaggerated "peak" price.
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IIRC, the Blind Faith Target coinciding with Elon's statements is not coincidental at all -- the valuation is in fact calculated backwards from those statements (that Tesla Motors would be worth $700B in 2025 or whatever it was). Hence the Blind Faith. Very interesting nonetheless!
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Exactly. Coincidence is the wrong word - direct correlation or "a result of" is better.
During a short squeeze the stock price is unlinked from any rational valuation--it's a mad rush to the door of a burning theater. I wish I had recognized the $295 pop as such and sold out my position, which I would have happily reinvested in TSLA at $200.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
jhm
Well-Known Member
I would prefer there to be no short squeeze at all. Shorts can rent the stock just as long as they want. I don't much care for the volatility that a squeeze entails.
That wasn't just short squeezing- There was a massive liquidation of Beta- High valuation stocks (ALL Solars, etc.). The major firms predicting Fed policy moved out of those stocks lowering all valuations across the board. That trade won't return anytime in the near future imo (and historically), until a complete cycle of correction and perhaps recession returns the conditional-state required. From here these stocks (including TSLA) will have lower multiples for a good long while- which is what we are seeing now. My opinion is that the market is still in a bullish mode, but rolling over for a correction; Valuations are high in a normal interest rate, but not given current rates. I'm personally expecting this to slowly mitigate- but some believe we are essentially in a permanent(or very long term) low rate era and essentially a stealth-correction (long flat period where GDP catches up)- I'm not in that camp currently- but could be persuaded. Regardless, I would caution against heavy time leveraged investment (even LEAP, although limited DITM perhaps worth a look on dips). It's all opinion of course- nobody knows- not even the Shadow... but I think macro-market TSLA-external issues strongly point to a cautious approach - especially in time-leverage. my 2c
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couldn't agree more- I hate short squeezes - if they are truly squeezes then the return (down path) is huge unknown - I prefer a slow steady march forward that is earned by the company earnings... I think TSLA is evolving more and more to that arrangement- although still a ways to go- anyway- agree with your sentiment here jhm
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I sold about 5% of my shares at $280, with the thought that I'd buy back when the price dropped. But I got impatient and repurchased at $250. I naively though it couldn't drop much lower than that. If only I'd sold half my shares and waited for it to drop to $200.
MartinAustin
Active Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
doggusfluffy
Closed
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Robert W. Baird reiterated their "outperform" rating for Motors in a research note issued on Saturday. They currently have a $275.00 price target on the stock. Robert W. Baird’s target price indicates a potential upside of 16.23% from the company’s current price.
From EV-enthusiast's post: "Bears may focus on light Q2 guidance but this is TSLA controlling the tempo of deliveries. Additionally, we believe sentiment has shifted as investors are willing to look ahead to the storage market potential. We remain buyers at current levels and recommend holding the stock into the Model X launch."
I brought up the short-squeeze topic because I believe there's the potential for seeing it happen this year. Most of my money is deployed in TSLA stock and J17 leaps, but I have some trading money deployed in mid-term leaps. I'm generally a cautious investor, and I hold mid-term calls because I see the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside potential in the mid-term. Just as with Robert W. Baird's group, many of us are expecting the Model X reveal and beginning of X deliveries as being a catalyst for price appreciation. An early July confirmation of Q2 deliveries beat, coupled shortly thereafter with the Model X reveal, could do the trick. Time will tell.
From EV-enthusiast's post: "Bears may focus on light Q2 guidance but this is TSLA controlling the tempo of deliveries. Additionally, we believe sentiment has shifted as investors are willing to look ahead to the storage market potential. We remain buyers at current levels and recommend holding the stock into the Model X launch."
I brought up the short-squeeze topic because I believe there's the potential for seeing it happen this year. Most of my money is deployed in TSLA stock and J17 leaps, but I have some trading money deployed in mid-term leaps. I'm generally a cautious investor, and I hold mid-term calls because I see the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside potential in the mid-term. Just as with Robert W. Baird's group, many of us are expecting the Model X reveal and beginning of X deliveries as being a catalyst for price appreciation. An early July confirmation of Q2 deliveries beat, coupled shortly thereafter with the Model X reveal, could do the trick. Time will tell.
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This is plausible scenario. I expect Q2 delivery will be 11500-12000, i.e. 15-20% beat to lowend guidance. Then model X launch, energy storage delivery. Elon will claim to raise more money for model 3 and more GF capacity. SP close or even surpass ATH.
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