Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[sahanim]

Would Elon's persona be improved or degraded by taking some lessons in effective speaking?

His halting delivery and use of "too many words" is part of his charm, but can be something that I believe makes listeners get frustrated and not take him quite so seriously.

Great question!

I think elon is a very self aware individual given his track record of successful ventures (which also include dating Talulah Riley).

At the end of thre day I doubt he cares enough to fix the way he speaks. Man's on a mission to Mars ffs. Cant be distracted with superficial stuff like that.

 

[Causalien]

Would Elon's persona be improved or degraded by taking some lessons in effective speaking?

His halting delivery and use of "too many words" is part of his charm, but can be something that I believe makes listeners get frustrated and not take him quite so seriously.

No. That'll just de-differentiate the Elon brand.

I had a first hand experience yesterday, overheard some interview between two university students on why Elon is the idol of the interviewee. 2008, never would've imagined this happening.


Then yesterday, I saw Tesla Model S escorting a cycling tournament in my city. Itt stroke me as perfect as it didn't generate toxic fumes for the bikers riding behind them.

It seems that even in my retirement, I can't get away from Tesla anymore because of how much it has infiltrated this remote part of the world.

 

[mmd]

It is not, otherwise the powerpacks would have to be selling at a loss while manufactured at Fremont prior to completion of the first phase of GF.

It's not completely unreasonable to initially sell products in limited quantities at a loss, to gain market share. Elon's statement has so many ifs and buts (it's like, it's not like, maybe, guess, etc.) that I do not know how much confidence we can put in those numbers.

Anyone has any estimate on number of powerwall and powerpack sales this quarter? I think, it was supposed to start shipping this summer. At 50,000 orders a week, maybe Tesla now has a backlog of over half a million Powerwall orders. Here is what Elon said in the last earnings call:

"Powerwall also we suspect is probably an average of number of Powerpacks, it's probably 1.5 to 2 per installation. So, 38,000 reservations is more, like 50,000 or 60,000 actual Powerwalls."

 

[Papafox]

Sigh. Must be nice to have service centers in anti-Tesla Texas. Here in NM, they're banned as well as stores and galleries. Media could care less. Why is that I wonder.

Seems New Mexico might be a good location for a legal challenge by Tesla regarding the constitutionality of bans.

 

[tinm]

Highly skeptical of actual number of Powerwall orders, despite what Elon's said. I suspect many "orders" were people signing up on TeslaEnergy website's inquiry form (like I did). I suspect actual paid orders will be far less. We'll find out in next few quarters.

 

[mejojo]

Highly skeptical of actual number of Powerwall orders, despite what Elon's said. I suspect many "orders" were people signing up on TeslaEnergy website's inquiry form (like I did). I suspect actual paid orders will be far less. We'll find out in next few quarters.

Since PowerWall is expected to be a small fraction of the business, this detail is probably not that significant.

I, for one, will buy my PowerWall even if it's just to hang in my garage....or maybe on the outside of my house.

Putting it to actual use will be gravy, and may lead to purchasing more than one.

 

[FredTMC]

Let's hit $270 this week. Hurt them shorts...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

More and more Model X sightings and spy shots are documented here.
BTW nice video recorded yesterday by Randy Frei near San Jose, Ca.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Let's hit $270 this week. Hurt them shorts...

Thanks for taking over my position as cheerleader in chief.:tongue:

It would indeed be "a wonderful thing."

 

[ibcs]

Thanks for taking over my position as cheerleader in chief.:tongue:

It would indeed be "a wonderful thing."

Amazing swings with light volume. I've noticed level 2 selling of 5200 shares followed by 2400 shares at about the 270 mark.

 

[sub]

Thanks for taking over my position as cheerleader in chief.:tongue:

It would indeed be "a wonderful thing."

I have a feeling that part of the reason this thread has been a little more quiet is because you were jumped on 2 days ago for "cheer leading" and it made others fearful of posting anything. Sorry, when nothing news worthy is happening I think it's fine to chit chat and have a little fun. You weren't bothering me.

I can't say I miss a certain person that seems to have disappeared from the thread on this nice run up the past 2-3 months. I'm sure he will return as soon as TSLA goes through the next down cycle, whenever that may be.

 

[austinEV]

Would Elon's persona be improved or degraded by taking some lessons in effective speaking?

His halting delivery and use of "too many words" is part of his charm, but can be something that I believe makes listeners get frustrated and not take him quite so seriously.

Wildly off-topic for short-term thread, but he has good days and bad. I wish he would learn to have more bite. At the shareholders meeting when that lady *as the first question* said "do you have any questions for us"? This is a baffling idea, and he should have said "No, not really. Not in this venue. Next question?" When someone says "is the stock value too high", he should just say "my job is to make sure the company has a good plan and is executing to that plan. I try not to look at or have an opinion about the stock price". That is all authentic, concise and true. I think what he does is try to take every question as though someone as smart as him is asking it and give it an analytical answer that the question doesn't deserve. he falls for this when he answers Bear-bating questions too. he comes off as daft and naive if you don't follow him closely. I think I am saying I wish he would be 10% meaner in his speaking style.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

It's not completely unreasonable to initially sell products in limited quantities at a loss, to gain market share.

It is completely unreasonable to initially sell products at a loss if they need cash and if they could sell them at a good profit and still be disruptively priced!:
http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/30/tesla-powerwall-battery-economics-almost-there/

UPDATE:The [Economics of the] Tesla battery are better than I thought for homes. And at utility scale, it’s deeply disruptive.

http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-big-and-cheap/#Grid

Texas utility Oncor commissioned a study (pdf The Value of Distributed Electricity Storage in Texas) of whether it would be cost-effective to deploy storage throughout the Texas grid (called ERCOT), placing the energy storage at the ‘edge’ of the grid, close to consumers.

The conclusion was an overwhelming yes. The study authors concluded that, at a capital cost of $350 / kwh for lithium-ion batteries (which they expected by 2020, but which Tesla has already beaten), it made sense across the ERCOT region to deploy at least 15,000 MWh of battery storage. (That would be 15 million KWh, or the equivalent battery capacity of nearly 160,000 Tesla model 85Ds.)

You can also see that at a slightly lower price of storage than the $350/kwh assumed here, the economic case for 8,000 MW (or 24,000 MWh) of storage becomes clear. And we are very likely about to see such prices.

8,000 MW or 8 GW is a very substantial amount of energy storage. For context, average US electrical draw (over day/night, 365 days a year) is roughly 400 GW. So this study is claiming that in Texas alone, the economic case for energy storage is strong enough to motivate storage capacity equivalent to 2% of the US’s average power draw.

Elon's statement has so many ifs and buts (it's like, it's not like, maybe, guess, etc.) that I do not know how much confidence we can put in those numbers.

It sounded to me like he did not want to lie, but that he also did not want to reveal how much the the packs cost Tesla. They have been producing large numbers of very similar 85kWh and 70kWh packs and pilot quantities of the Powerpacks in Fremont. He said they don't know the exact costs, and that is believable. But he makes it sound like they don't even have a very very good idea of how much they cost them. That is completely unbelievable.

 

[mejojo]

I took the opportunity this morning to dispose of my weeklies (20@250, 10@260) for a mild profit after having been so very greedy yesterday morning and not capping out at about this level, and then going through yesterday's drop with that handful of not much.

I fear a downdraft tomorrow if light volume continues and max pain is well below current SP (maximum-pain.com is showing 260)

On the other hand, since I did sell 30 contracts, it would make sense that something fantastic happens tomorrow.

Update: To my fear of light vol drop tomorrow, I bought weekly Puts [email protected]. Here's hoping that turns out to be a waste.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I have a feeling that part of the reason this thread has been a little more quiet is because you were jumped on 2 days ago for "cheer leading" and it made others fearful of posting anything. Sorry, when nothing news worthy is happening I think it's fine to chit chat and have a little fun. You weren't bothering me.

I can't say I miss a certain person that seems to have disappeared from the thread on this nice run up the past 2-3 months. I'm sure he will return as soon as TSLA goes through the next down cycle, whenever that may be.

Well I absolutely love the market and I am constantly tweeting and updating all major newsmakers and CNBC celebs with current Tesla information via Twitter. I am doing my part to get the word out 24/7. Some members are on my twitter feed @diggydoy. Technicals looking good for Tesla since breaking $265.00. Somebody you should all have a look at is @justinpulitzer who is a technical trader out of NYC who tends to have a positive outlook on Tesla.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Obvious intraday resistance at $267.00 level.
Ran about 5 times into that resistance today.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Obvious intraday resistance at $267.00 level.
Ran about 5 times into that resistance today.

We still did better than Apple today and the Nasdaq. Cheers to all shareholders!

 

[ScepticMatt]

Powerpack (very similar to the automobile package) 250 per kWh. JB said that the M3 batteries have 20% greater energy density than MS cells. Energy density and prices are almost the same thing. Plus 30% decrease by the end of the the first year of GF Production.

Total is about $125 per kWh.

Minor math correction:

Those savings are multiplicative, and a 20% density increase does not imply 20% cost decrease.
(I.e. a doubling the energy density wouldn't imply batteries are free)
So that would mean ~$145 per kWh (250/1.2 * 0.7)

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Tesla press conference in the morning. To the moon alice. 11am PT

 

[Johann Koeber]

Just a data point:

Tesla reached out to me today because I had signed up for a Powerpack.

They asked me how many packs I want (1)
and when I wish delivery. Choices were several options, the earliest was late 2015 (took that).

I'll be interested in pricing and service here in Germany. Certainly a fairly huge market.