jhm
Well-Known Member
Words you may not want to hear tonight:
"We're still on track to deliver Model X in a couple of months."
"We're still on track to deliver Model X in a couple of months."
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Chickenlittle
Banned
plow this is so strange a day. The quiet before the storm. Since I have been investing in Tsla, I have not seen a report date like this. Extremely low volume, no significant change in price.
I sold about 50% of my September 280 calls today. Somewhat higher than what I got in at. Sure was an interesting couple months. Getting ready to start hitting the refresh button on the TSLA investors web page. I like to print out the quarterly report and read it over before checking the AH prices, more than anything to see if I can gauge what the market reaction will be. Also, the first time I did this was the quarter where it popped something like 20+% the day after the earnings release. Not necessarily superstitious, more of a creature of habit :smile:.
Good luck to all, and hoping for some very good X and Giga-Factory news to get us higher.
RT
Good luck to all, and hoping for some very good X and Giga-Factory news to get us higher.
RT
Yes, and options market saying there will be an 8% move one way or the other. I am not an options expert but it has been said before: be careful with short term options the IV crush following the ER/CC will be swift and brutal.
ill be moving out of about 50% of my Sep/280s today as well, that'll be my hedge against who knows what later today.
sahanim
Member
think im making the exact same trades as you.
sold half my options yesterday and cleared out most of them today. gotta love the pre-ER premiums
holding out to see where we end up after ER before buyback
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Option sellers might be the winners today. You can get killed being the seller as well though so be careful either way!
I am bearish on this report (in terms of short term market reaction, not ongoing biz success). I feel like a lot of good news is priced in and the market wants to have its tesla freakouts. There won't be anything interesting about the model S or sales that we don't know. We have pretty good visibility into the deliveries (obviously) and product changes. Their hats are de-rabbited at the moment. Tesla energy will be some vague statements about interest and pilot programs.
That leaves the model X. I totally believe the X will be popular, profitable and a success. Its styling is a little whale-ish, but that is ok. I think they have their ducks in a row, mostly. But here is the thing. At this particular time, I bet they are in freak-out mode about 5-6 dumb little things that are gating release. Some welding joint that wasn't well thought out and the robots can't get at easily. Some software glitch that keeps happening at random times. The seat rotater that hangs if you weigh over 300 pounds because its a corner case that thin tesla engineers never thought about. They will fix, work around, or sweep under rug these things, but Elon and team know about them. So I think they will hedge about delivery. Even if they think its 50/50 they will make their goal dates I think it will come out in the language and Mr Market is ready to lose it over a perceived delay.
I am looking to buy at a discount this week.
That leaves the model X. I totally believe the X will be popular, profitable and a success. Its styling is a little whale-ish, but that is ok. I think they have their ducks in a row, mostly. But here is the thing. At this particular time, I bet they are in freak-out mode about 5-6 dumb little things that are gating release. Some welding joint that wasn't well thought out and the robots can't get at easily. Some software glitch that keeps happening at random times. The seat rotater that hangs if you weigh over 300 pounds because its a corner case that thin tesla engineers never thought about. They will fix, work around, or sweep under rug these things, but Elon and team know about them. So I think they will hedge about delivery. Even if they think its 50/50 they will make their goal dates I think it will come out in the language and Mr Market is ready to lose it over a perceived delay.
I am looking to buy at a discount this week.
Haha great. the moment you posted that, the stock jumped 2 points... Keep on going austin
doggusfluffy
Closed
I read somewhere that the 8% anticipated move is roughly double the normal anticipated 4% swing. Maybe 'the market' is hinging on the bigger X news as well?
just used that bump to exit some calls. ill take it!Haha great. the moment you posted that, the stock jumped 2 points... Keep on going austin
I sold too quickly it seems.. Could have gotten out of the Sept. $280s at my purchasing price of $11.9 instead of $11.1... Oh well... Lets see if I plan on selling the remainder... I'll look like an idiot if we spike after hours, but if we come crashing down, I'll be the genius who raised cash beforehand
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Is everybodys iPhone stock application working? Mine is not keeping up with the stock price of TSLA. Could be reason for last few minutes volatility.
Considering everybody has iphone and many use the app to track minute by minute.
Other stocks are delayes as well. Just checked.
Considering everybody has iphone and many use the app to track minute by minute.
Other stocks are delayes as well. Just checked.
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Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I used the spike to buy 1 weekly protection put. If it falls back down I will write a longer dated put to go with it.
I sold too quickly it seems.. Could have gotten out of the Sept. $280s at my purchasing price of $11.9 instead of $11.1... Oh well... Lets see if I plan on selling the remainder... I'll look like an idiot if we spike after hours, but if we come crashing down, I'll be the genius who raised cash beforehand
Me too. Should have stuck to my original plan to ONLY sell my calls if we hot $270......left a few $ on the table.
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