Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[atang]

Shorts trying to shake out weak/squeemish longs this morning. I almost picked up another 100 shares ~ $260'sh but it rebounded too soon (though that was good for all of our collectively long positions).

Welcome to the forum @tslalala

 

[aznt1217]

How to not worry about the short term price? Buy shares and hold them!. It may not maximize profit but it is comfy.

Nothing about TSLA is comfy. There are no guarantees

 

[RubberToe]

Solid July for Tesla in California, especially compared to July 2014:

CVRP Rebate Statistics | Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

 

[Papafox]

Rubbertoe, thanks for the graph. Notice how the last month of California deliveries each quarter sees a spike (March, June, September, December). For this reason, July's performance is all that much more impressive.

 

[doggusfluffy]

SolarCity to Acquire ILIOSS, Expand to Mexico - NASDAQ.com

Heads up! SolarCity is expanding into Mexico by acquiring ILIOSS the largest solar developer in Mexico. I see this as a big plus for Tesla Energy. Power is expensive in Mexico, but there is a federal virtual net metering law that allows entities to generate power in one location, send it through the grid at low cost, and use it in another location. This opens up immediate opportunities for community solar. It also allows a business like Tesla to generate solar power where it will, store it where it will, and distributed it to SuperChargers, stores, and even factories. Distributed battery storage make good use of the virtual net metering potential. So just as this is beneficial to Tesla in its own operations, it is beneficial to many other businesses and communities. Tesla has potential to sell alot of Powerpacks and Powerwalls into Mexico, and SolarCity's move into that market will be a powerful conduit.

Pfft. Everyone already knows stationary storage is in it's infancy and the valuation is one burlap sack of Peso's.

SolarCity Factory Tops Off | Buffalo Rising

With the facility’s “core and shell” substantially complete, work will soon commence on the interior fit out process, including installation of specialized solar panel manufacturing equipment. When completed, the Gigafactory is expected to produce approximately 10,000 solar panels daily. SolarCity will produce Silevo’s high-technology Triex solar panel technology, which has demonstrated a unique combination of high energy output and low cost.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Nothing about TSLA is comfy. There are no guarantees

Interesting day. For a day of the earnings report
very low volume
despite the opening not a very volatile

I suspect this indicates uncertainty about the report by both sides

 

[Crowded Mind]

Had a nightmare last night, Elon said the X was delayed and I couldn't find the sell button on my trading account to get out of my options.

Have been spending way too much time on here and tracking the stock.

Ha, I usually read the forums right before I sleep, so I have encountered many such dreams.

 

[jhm]

Pfft. Everyone already knows stationary storage is in it's infancy and the valuation is one burlap sack of Peso's.

SolarCity Factory Tops Off | Buffalo Rising

Wow, that's a pretty dismissive response. Did you really intend to use an ethnic slur to insult Tesla's entry into energy? Please try to keep your bias against Mexico in check.

Tesla is also moving to sell cars in Mexico. It may well be that SolarCity's move is in coordination with Tesla. Both business can do well in this country.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Nice pop on Stifel note.

Streetinsider.com digest:

Stifel is out with a preview of what to expect when Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) reports Q2 results after markets close today. The firm has TSLA at Buy with a price target of $400.
Analyst James Albertine is looking for TSLA to post Q2 loss of $0.66 per share, versus consensus estimates calling for a loss of $0.59 per share. The estimate assumes 11,507 deliveries in Q2 (as previously reported), 24.9 percent auto gross margin, $181.4 million of R&D, and $198.6 million of SG&A expense.

Albertine offered the following commentary: We believe TSLA entered deeper into another key investment phase during 2Q15, which now includes pre-launch spending on the Model X (our model anticipates no 3Q15 deliveries and 4,500 deliveries in 4Q15), the energy storage business opportunity, and the Model 3 (more affordable EV vs. Models S/X). We think this will manifest itself as more cash burn in the eyes of disbelievers tonight on 2Q15 results, and absent material updates on back half Model S/X deliveries or any significant changes in TSLA's global growth strategy (really a question of demand), could weigh on shares in after hours trading.

That said, we maintain our optimistic view on shares over the next 12 months as TSLA remains a key disruptor/agent of change throughout the auto industry, which transcends temporal issues like lower oil prices (and impact related to gasoline) curbing demand for most alternatively fueled vehicles. During 2Q15, TSLA hosted a shareholders meeting, which among other takeaways included the announcement of CFO Deepak Ahuja's departure at the end of 2015, but also framed the critical, global need for mobile energy storage applications (important takeaway was that management sees commercial/utility customers representing roughly 75%-80% of future energy storage revenues). We believe TSLA's ability to outpace industry innovation remains a key catalyst supporting market share gains and, we think, a higher valuation multiple.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Wow, that's a pretty dismissive response. Did you really intend to use an ethnic slur to insult Tesla's entry into energy? Please try to keep your bias against Mexico in check.

Tesla is also moving to sell cars in Mexico. It may well be that SolarCity's move is in coordination with Tesla. Both business can do well in this country.

Completely tongue in cheek and merely referencing the market yawning at stationary valuations.

 

[tslalala]

Welcome to the forum @tslalala

Thanks for the welcome, atang. I waited for a year to time my entry into TSLA around the 180-190 dip and have been a huge fan since. I just discovered you guys recently. You're all doing an incredible job of being a community: sharing and thinking through news and potential issues together and keeping each other in check (not too pessimistic, not too optimistic).

 

[tslalala]

Nice pop on Stifel note.

Streetinsider.com digest:

Hoping Stifel is right so we can experience an initial dip thanks to algo-bots (to buy more shares), followed by a real, sustained pop after people read between the lines (that this Q's capex/intrastructure spending is a sign of GREAT things to come).

 

[Causalien]

Completely tongue in cheek and merely referencing the market yawning at stationary valuations.

I am here for the class reunion too. Sprained my back deadlifting so I have to stay home. Of course I have the pre earnings nightmare like everyone. But mine is of the zombie apocalypse type.

 

[jhm]

Completely tongue in cheek and merely referencing the market yawning at stationary valuations.

Oh, that's a relief! My sarcasm meter must be on low gain.

Yes, the market may well yawn, but for those of us who want to see Tesla grow into new markets, it's pretty exciting.

Driving down the cost of electricity wherever it is high and stabilizing grids wherever they may not be so reliable is essential work for EV adoption across the globe. This is why stationary storage is a key part of the secret master plan. So Mexico has an adequate government owned grid. It is suitable for EV use, but power is expensive. So driving down the cost of electricity with community and rooftop solar paves the way to make Model 3 a really attractive car in Mexico. Moreover, this tests the water for going into other more challenging electrical environments with explosive auto growth like India and Brazil. If Tesla does not figure out how to bring EVs into these burgeoning auto markets with poor infrastructure, then it will fail to hasten the transition to sustainable transport and growth will suffer in the next decade. So it is impertinent that Tesla figures out how to enhance electrical infrastructure to sustain its growth trajectory.

What does this have to do with short term prices? Of course these things matter to string hands which constitute the support of the stock price. But also it is curious that SolarCity had its ER a week early and now announces this just prior to Tesla's ER. Usually these ERS are within a day of each other. So could it be that we will soon learn more about Tesla's plan for Mexico? Let's see.

 

[FluxCap]

I am here for the class reunion too. Sprained my back deadlifting so I have to stay home. Of course I have the pre earnings nightmare like everyone. But mine is of the zombie apocalypse type.

I too need a pre-ER nightmare support group. Or at least a group discount on Rogaine.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I too need a pre-ER nightmare support group. Or at least a group discount on Rogaine.

I gave myself a buzz cut last night. Cheaper than Rogaine even with group discount!

 

[AlMc]

I too need a pre-ER nightmare support group. Or at least a group discount on Rogaine.

I decided to sell many of my calls to accumulate cash for what I expect to be a buying opportunity later. I was going to hold and sell if we hit $270 today but decided it was better to take some profit now.
Good luck to all. I have started my preER therapy with tums...I will move up to Pepcid a little later and start swilling Peptobismol about 3:45 est.:wink:

 

[doggusfluffy]

I decided to sell many of my calls to accumulate cash for what I expect to be a buying opportunity later. I was going to hold and sell if we hit $270 today but decided it was better to take some profit now.
Good luck to all. I have started my preER therapy with tums...I will move up to Pepcid a little later and start swilling Peptobismol about 3:45 est.:wink:

I suddenly have no strategy or plan. I was completely focused on the X timeline and the new assembly line that I may get buried in the ER undertow. I was sure there would be some solid X news and probably an unveiling date...but now I'm sensing that disappointment may await. Maybe I'll try to back out of some shorter term calls.

 

[ibcs]

I decided to sell many of my calls to accumulate cash for what I expect to be a buying opportunity later. I was going to hold and sell if we hit $270 today but decided it was better to take some profit now.
Good luck to all. I have started my preER therapy with tums...I will move up to Pepcid a little later and start swilling Peptobismol about 3:45 est.:wink:

I may regret this, but I'm sitting cash waiting for the reaction on this earnings call. Will watch after hours to decide on entry price. Have a few shares as lottery tickets. July was a break even and not as enjoyable as the previous months!

 

[Electrifying]

This may be stupid and I may regret writing this later. But I expect TSLA will trade at $290 afterhours. It bounced off a rising 50 day moving average twice within the last month, each time with a bullish engulfing candle. And normally analyst will not upgrade the day before ER (otherwise he will look pretty supid).