If he was going to lower guidance, I think it would be with the q3 report. We know Elon is optimistic so I doubt he'd throw in the towel at the midpoint of the year.
I'd be more worried if talking heads said it was going to 300.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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If he was going to lower guidance, I think it would be with the q3 report. We know Elon is optimistic so I doubt he'd throw in the towel at the midpoint of the year.
I'd be more worried if talking heads said it was going to 300.
I agree that he won't come outright and reduce guidance, but I worry on the call he may put question marks around the number. Something like this: "Well, we have introduced ludicrous, a 90kwh battery and a new referral program that should drive sales to get us to 50-55K for the year". That is, I fear him equivocating on the 55K number just enough during the call to send the FUDsters into overdrive and tank the stock short term. Sure hope I am wrong.
He's already said 50-55k a couple times, although it's true the media didn't run with it. I think any short term dip is a buying opportunity with all the catalysts coming. Model X, stationary storage numbers, a near doubling of production that is probably already under way. We're also going to have 500 Superchargers and VIN 100,000 any day now.
jhm
Well-Known Member
My apologies for getting off on the Tesla truck tangent, which I think we'd all like to see. My motive is that I was pissed with the auto industry response to O'Connell. The auto industry is like, "why should we be forced to make crappy EVs, when our customers love buying fat trucks while the price of oil is low?" With that kind of attitude they'll never get past making crappy compliance cars. That is why Tesla needs to school them on how to make a high performance truck. And the only way they'll learn the lesson is if Tesla steals critical market share from the truck segment. If a Tesla Truck can cut into that market the way the Model S has cut into the high performance luxury sedan segment, then it will crush Detroit. They will have to make electric trucks, not because the government tells them to, but because this is the only way to make trucks with the kind of performance customers demand.
In fact they did, since Elon was like employee number five. The brilliant engineers who had the idea for the company assembled well in advance of his joining.
To paint this - or any - company as an individual effort is incredibly wrong. It's a company, not an individual. That's the whole point of companies.
As for trucks - unfortunately I don't think tesla will make a truck for quite some time. It will be a tough market to enter but there are a lot of benefits EV tech can bring to the segment.
As for ER movement - I'm considering selling a put spread, but would have been happier to do it had we not recovered so much today.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
To make a rough prototype that would never have gotten to Job 1 without Elon.
Without Elon Tesla has absolute zero impact on the auto industry and the world.
Tesla would be another of several dozens of startup BEV companies to go bankrupt without even a foot note in history.
All those startups had some very good engineers, scientist and coders.
So does GM,Ford,Honda, Toyota, VW,BMW, and MB.
None of them brought the equivalent of the Model S to market.
Without Elon Musk, the BEV technology development would be in all likelihood be years behind where we are now. But attractive BEVs would prevail.
Maybe Rimac would have been the company to develop a Model S-like vehicle. Maybe Nissan would have made a Leaf-type vehicle anyway. Maybe Tesla would have succeded even without Elon Musk. It's all pure speculation. But I am 99% sure attractive BEVs would prevail. There simply aren't any other meaningful alternatives. Hydrogen sucks, fossil cars and plug-in hybrids are unsustainable. Also, li-ion batteries would have become almost as cheap as they are now anyway, due to the developent of more and more consumer electronics using batteries. As the price of li-ion falls, BEVs become more and more of a no-brainer.
Maybe Rimac would have been the company to develop a Model S-like vehicle. Maybe Nissan would have made a Leaf-type vehicle anyway. Maybe Tesla would have succeded even without Elon Musk. It's all pure speculation. But I am 99% sure attractive BEVs would prevail. There simply aren't any other meaningful alternatives. Hydrogen sucks, fossil cars and plug-in hybrids are unsustainable. Also, li-ion batteries would have become almost as cheap as they are now anyway, due to the developent of more and more consumer electronics using batteries. As the price of li-ion falls, BEVs become more and more of a no-brainer.
Well, no stock dive need to make you feel that way. Up - down - up - down, etc, and so on, that is what makes it fun. Like a wheel of life
There are many ways to kill off that unneccessary anxiety, but I doubt that someone else can do it for you. All I can suggest is have a few drinks and enjoy the ride :biggrin:
At least you are in a good company here
Chickenlittle
Banned
Welcome to what I have gone through on all the earnings call. Tesla usual response to an earnings call is to drop. Nobody should reassure you, you need to do what you are comfortable. Decide whether your investing or trading. CNBC analysts are pathetic. I would not follow their advise on anything especially tesla. Good luck
BoerumHill
not great not terrible
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The easy way would be to sell them with an aerodynamic truck cap, probably shaped much like the rear of the X. Make it expandable like this
Chickenlittle
Banned
There are two viewpoints I have for this earnings.
Bull case:
- Model S EU delivery time moved out of Q3. This means Tesla thinks it has enough orders as per their thoughts.
- I have seen multiple posts on FB saying they cannot get 70D test drive and it takes about 3 weeks to get one.
Bear case:
- Multiple levers from Elon about Model S demand generation within weeks. This can be viewed as bull case too, but I don't consider that a bull case.
- Model X is not out yet and we have no clue when the production will start. Tesla may say in the earnings that they are on schedule for Q3 delivery.
- If Model X production starts at the end of Q3, and has potential to disrupt general production even for a few weeks, we may not see any Model S produced for some time in October, and may be that's why Tesla wants demand generation forward by a few months - hence the demand levers. This could have implications on 55k mark too. Whether Tesla has much insight into it now or in the Q3 earnings call, is difficult to say, but there should be a discussion heavily focused on this number today.
Overall, this means nothing for long term, but stock will move in the short term. I am thinking of making a spread of my calls/stocks today.
Bull case:
- Model S EU delivery time moved out of Q3. This means Tesla thinks it has enough orders as per their thoughts.
- I have seen multiple posts on FB saying they cannot get 70D test drive and it takes about 3 weeks to get one.
Bear case:
- Multiple levers from Elon about Model S demand generation within weeks. This can be viewed as bull case too, but I don't consider that a bull case.
- Model X is not out yet and we have no clue when the production will start. Tesla may say in the earnings that they are on schedule for Q3 delivery.
- If Model X production starts at the end of Q3, and has potential to disrupt general production even for a few weeks, we may not see any Model S produced for some time in October, and may be that's why Tesla wants demand generation forward by a few months - hence the demand levers. This could have implications on 55k mark too. Whether Tesla has much insight into it now or in the Q3 earnings call, is difficult to say, but there should be a discussion heavily focused on this number today.
Overall, this means nothing for long term, but stock will move in the short term. I am thinking of making a spread of my calls/stocks today.
hockeythug
Active Member
Had a nightmare last night, Elon said the X was delayed and I couldn't find the sell button on my trading account to get out of my options.
Have been spending way too much time on here and tracking the stock.
Have been spending way too much time on here and tracking the stock.
Thumper
Active Member
How to not worry about the short term price? Buy shares and hold them!. It may not maximize profit but it is comfy.
jhm
Well-Known Member
SolarCity to Acquire ILIOSS, Expand to Mexico - NASDAQ.com
Heads up! SolarCity is expanding into Mexico by acquiring ILIOSS the largest solar developer in Mexico. I see this as a big plus for Tesla Energy. Power is expensive in Mexico, but there is a federal virtual net metering law that allows entities to generate power in one location, send it through the grid at low cost, and use it in another location. This opens up immediate opportunities for community solar. It also allows a business like Tesla to generate solar power where it will, store it where it will, and distributed it to SuperChargers, stores, and even factories. Distributed battery storage make good use of the virtual net metering potential. So just as this is beneficial to Tesla in its own operations, it is beneficial to many other businesses and communities. Tesla has potential to sell alot of Powerpacks and Powerwalls into Mexico, and SolarCity's move into that market will be a powerful conduit.
Heads up! SolarCity is expanding into Mexico by acquiring ILIOSS the largest solar developer in Mexico. I see this as a big plus for Tesla Energy. Power is expensive in Mexico, but there is a federal virtual net metering law that allows entities to generate power in one location, send it through the grid at low cost, and use it in another location. This opens up immediate opportunities for community solar. It also allows a business like Tesla to generate solar power where it will, store it where it will, and distributed it to SuperChargers, stores, and even factories. Distributed battery storage make good use of the virtual net metering potential. So just as this is beneficial to Tesla in its own operations, it is beneficial to many other businesses and communities. Tesla has potential to sell alot of Powerpacks and Powerwalls into Mexico, and SolarCity's move into that market will be a powerful conduit.
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