Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Irishjugg]

I'd say buy into the event. Tesla is still only guiding for ~15,000 Model X sales in 2016, and hasn't officially guided for sales well beyond that figure. I also think there will be a few surprises about the Model X that no-one has discussed, or that aren't currently perceived to be significant.

Another positive, the Tesla event will happen a day after a big market sel off.

The main negative I can see is this week being the last week of the quarter.

If Tesla can do this perfecty, it will also position Tesla as a solution to the problems Volkswagen has created.

The recent weakness is probably partially due to a lot of funds with significant exposure to German automobile manufacturers rushing to rebalance their books.

Quite honestly, I am not sure I agree. My plan is to wait through this reveal and quarterly report because I am expecting a drop. For one, if we look back to model S reveal, prices didn't really change much, and certainly didn't pop after it's release, it took until the consumer reports and car and driver best car news to hit at the same time as cash flow positive for the quarter, that's what really sent things skyward. I think people here are overestimating the potential pop from this release. Elon has a lot more twitter followers now, and a lot more random people will watch the reveal than did for the model S because of this, so I admit I could be wrong, but I think most tesla investors and prospective investors already know this is coming and it shouldn't move the needle much.
I also expect that Q3 numbers will be just fine from the perspective of a TMC member, but looked at negatively by the general public. The best case I think is hearing that the X ramp is going better than expected, but even then I don't think Elon would re-adjust the target to 55k from the currently downgraded 50-55. In any case, I don't expect super positive news about "we sold more than we thought this quarter and are on track to hit 55k even if X doesn't ship" or anything like that. With the absurd amount of short interest, it seems clear that a large number of investors will be looking for a bear case and would need a hell of a lot of good news to change their minds.

My plan is, wait it out now, watch the price dip down over the next 1-2.5 months due to a combination of macro and no huge big news, then load up hard in early-mid December and continue into Jan. I expect cash flow positive Q1 or Q2 which should really bounce the price, so I'm hoping to get a very nice discount over the next few months to commence buying. Absurd as it would be, I still think we see 200-225 again before the year end (and then never again after Jan).

I'm no pro or anything, so take my words with a large helping of salt, just going off of the patterns I have seen in Tesla and what I think is going to happen.

As a long, I am also hoping I am incorrect, but I won't feel the slightest pain at some more cheap buying opportunities. Good luck to my friends here with options plays though, I realize those are more stressful and the scenario I layed out would not be ideal for many, it's just what I think will happen.

Edit: some typos

 

[JRP3]

The Mission E accelerates faster than
a 911, charges in just 15 minutes and is due to reach the market
in five years.

None of which has ever been demonstrated.

 

[mrdoubleb]

None of which has ever been demonstrated.

Come on! They surely have flyers, animation, computer simulated battery packs charged to full in 15 minutes and all. What else do you want from the 2019 Porsche that is going to crush the 2012 Tesla?! You fanboy, you!

 

[Drax7]

Quite honestly, I am not sure I agree. My plan is to wait through this reveal and quarterly report because I am expecting a drop. For one, if we look back to model S reveal, prices didn't really change much, and certainly didn't pop after it's release, it took until the consumer reports and car and driver best car news to hit at the same time as cash flow positive for the quarter, that's what really sent things skyward. I think people here are overestimating the potential pop from this release. Elon has a lot more twitter followers now, and a lot more random people will watch the reveal than did for the model S because of this, so I admit I could be wrong, but I think most tesla investors and prospective investors already know this is coming and it shouldn't move the needle much.
I also expect that Q3 numbers will be just fine from the perspective of a TMC member, but looked at negatively by the general public. The best case I think is hearing that the X ramp is going better than expected, but even then I don't think Elon would re-adjust the target to 55k from the currently downgraded 50-55. In any case, I don't expect super positive news about "we sold more than we thought this quarter and are on track to hit 55k even if X doesn't ship" or anything like that. With the absurd amount of short interest, it seems clear that a large number of investors will be looking for a bear case and would need a hell of a lot of good news to change their minds.

My plan is, wait it out now, watch the price dip down over the next 1-2.5 months due to a combination of macro and no huge big news, then load up hard in early-mid December and continue into Jan. I expect cash flow positive Q1 or Q2 which should really bounce the price, so I'm hoping to get a very nice discount over the next few months to commence buying. Absurd as it would be, I still think we see 200-225 again before the year end (and then never again after Jan).

I'm no pro or anything, to take y words with a large helping of salt, just going off of the patterns I have seen in Tesla and what I think is going to happen.

As a long, I am also hoping I am incorrect, but I won't feel the slightest pain at some more cheap buying opportunities. Good luck to my friends here with options plays though, I realize those are more stressful and the scenario I layed out would not be ideal for many, it's just what I think will happen.

Never met anybody that could cheorograph the market or stock price, even with insider information .

 

[aznt1217]

Never met anybody that could cheorograph the market or stock price, even with insider information .

Nobody can time the market, if somebody could they wouldn't be on these forums lol

 

[Hogfighter]

Most other drops following announcements happened due to a run-up of the SP prior to the event. We haven't seen a run-up as of late, so I can't foresee a precipitous drop following tonight's reveal. There's too much going for the company for there to be much of a drop.

That said, I'd be equally surprised if the stock jumped after tonight. Investors don't care about cool second row seats.

 

[3mp_kwh]

Morgan Stanley is out reiterating their $465 price target inside a piece assessing "VW Emissions: Raises Questions Over Internal Combustion Sustainability". They allude to CO2 $/gram reductions, and other blood from stone analogies about the ICE. More generally, I think they get it right about the influence the VW scandal is going to have on both the tightening of compliance testing, as well as potentially amplifying the ZEV/BEV/PHEV credit regimes, globally.

Some might believe folding seats are at play, but I'd factor in some under-current of "sector reallocation" coming Tesla's way regardless of this announcement. The "street" might be coming a little closer to Jesus on "gr / mile" and electricity vs. ICE. That can't hurt.

 

[Perfectlogic]

@aznt1217 and Drax7

Obviously noone can predict the market perfectly, but beating the average return certainly is possible, otherwise this thread would also be pretty pointless.

 

[Irishjugg]

Most other drops following announcements happened due to a run-up of the SP prior to the event. We haven't seen a run-up as of late, so I can't foresee a precipitous drop following tonight's reveal. There's too much going for the company for there to be much of a drop.

That said, I'd be equally surprised if the stock jumped after tonight. Investors don't care about cool second row seats.

That's a solid point. I guess I would say I'm more convinced that it won't go up than I am that it will go down. I do think the ER could lead to a small irrational downturn though unless it's just fantastic.

 

[Scott Ales]

I think it will take weeks for the general market to better understand what the MX means to the future of the industry and Tesla. With the establishment taking pot shots at everything from crappy this and expectations missed that. The truth ultimately comes from the real world users over a longer period of time. Any one oddball outside driver can spoil everything happening at Tesla. I apply general fundamentals to the company and brand then wait out the micro triggers as they come and go. Long plays create modest returns through options 1+ year out. I use profits to play closer dates as they are house money.

Having driven the product for 18k miles and coming from the industry over 30 years provides a different perspective but not necessarily better.

Calculated gambling really.

Always a Tesla Bull. They changed our world no matter what happens from here.

 

[aznt1217]

@aznt1217 and Drax7

Obviously noone can predict the market perfectly, but beating the average return certainly is possible, otherwise this thread would also be pretty pointless.

Yes, but the difference is the post above was trying to time things and not define a specific set of time to create a holding period return. I'd be buying like a mad man if I had any more capital even for the short term, because tonight Tesla becomes a "real car company," meaning that there is more than 1 model being sold and it's entering the hottest space in the market with a car that has a significant amount more value proposition (in terms of fuel savings) in the SUV segment.

 

[Scott Ales]

Yes, but the difference is the post above was trying to time things and not define a specific set of time to create a holding period return. I'd be buying like a mad man if I had any more capital even for the short term, because tonight Tesla becomes a "real car company," meaning that there is more than 1 model being sold and it's entering the hottest space in the market with a car that has a significant amount more value proposition (in terms of fuel savings) in the SUV segment.

For me it is purely about having a stake in the pivotal moment when this either works or doesn't. I don't care if the rest of the world doesn't get it and my investments fail me. But to be outside of the opportunity should it happen as we all want it to would be more difficult IMHO.

It's like this, "Scott, being such a fan of Tesla I'm sure you made out great when they launched the Model X!. Nah, I didn't have any money invested when that happened."

I would feel better about loosing it than not trying and having it go big.

See what I mean?

 

[MartinAustin]

Model X Launch | Tesla Motors

Nice. Their whole website is redirecting to the Model X page for the livestream event. I guess they are being a little more opportunistic about publicity than I thought they would!

 

[Cattledog]

Model X Launch | Tesla Motors

Nice. Their whole website is redirecting to the Model X page for the livestream event. I guess they are being a little more opportunistic about publicity than I thought they would!

I like it, it's a stunning graphic. If you are gonna roll with no advertising budget you might as well use everything else at your disposal. Good move. The Model X reveal will definitely generate additional Model S (not a typo) sales.

 

[everman]

What's great is they are about to start actually selling the Model X. Most people probably don't realize they have been downplaying it in the stores and on the website. We are about to see the start of the Tesla sales push, and it's going to be awesome!

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Morgan Stanley is out reiterating their $465 price target inside a piece assessing "VW Emissions: Raises Questions Over Internal Combustion Sustainability". They allude to CO2 $/gram reductions, and other blood from stone analogies about the ICE. More generally, I think they get it right about the influence the VW scandal is going to have on both the tightening of compliance testing, as well as potentially amplifying the ZEV/BEV/PHEV credit regimes, globally.

Some might believe folding seats are at play, but I'd factor in some under-current of "sector reallocation" coming Tesla's way regardless of this announcement. The "street" might be coming a little closer to Jesus on "gr / mile" and electricity vs. ICE. That can't hurt.

BBG...

 

[Scott Ales]

CNBC commentator John Fortt just stated on air that you CANNOT open the rear doors inside the garage. That you have to back outside of your garage to load the kids in the back of the car!!!

Unbelievable what people will say. I wish Elon would go after him on Twitter with this.

How long was the picture of the Model X in Elon's garage up on the site? 2 years?

 

[Hogfighter]

For me it is purely about having a stake in the pivotal moment when this either works or doesn't. I don't care if the rest of the world doesn't get it and my investments fail me. But to be outside of the opportunity should it happen as we all want it to would be more difficult IMHO.

It's like this, "Scott, being such a fan of Tesla I'm sure you made out great when they launched the Model X!. Nah, I didn't have any money invested when that happened."

I would feel better about loosing it than not trying and having it go big.

See what I mean?

Absolutely. If TSLA fails, I lose a bundle. But that would be far easier than TSLA killing it, and me on the sidelines waiting for the 'drop' so that I could buy in at a cheaper price.

 

[Drax7]

@aznt1217 and Drax7

Obviously noone can predict the market perfectly, but beating the average return certainly is possible, otherwise this thread would also be pretty pointless.

It's difficult though not impossible to beat a buy and hold strategy,
based on predicting all sorts of zig zags.
On an after tax basis , forget about it, your performance worsens.
Though keep trying and good fortune, some do outperform.

 

[Johan]

It's difficult though not impossible to beat a buy and hold strategy,
based on predicting all sorts of zig zags.
On an after tax basis , forget about it, your performance worsens.
Though keep trying and good fortune, some do outperform.

The only way to outperform a buy and hold strategy for any given stock over time is to have access to real insider information. Even if you do it's hard.

Outperforming a market index over time is also very difficult, but can be done by understanding things better than the average investor (for example being overweight TSLA and renewables).