Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[MikeC]

No idea where it goes this week but I'm thinking that people hanging on for quarterly delivery numbers will blunt a "sell the news" scenario on Wednesday.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Here is an interesting new piece of information.

Video Sighting of Tesla Model X Towing a Trailer - TESLARATI.com

According to this article, that cited Jim Chen, Tesla Motors VP of Regulatory Affairs, the Model X will have close to 10,000 pounds of towing capacity.

Tesla Model X Towing Capacity close to 10,000 Pounds

Here is the website with the video they are citing.
2015 Georgia Technology Summit - James Chen

Tesla Model X - Effortlessly Towing a 2000 pound trailer up a hill - YouTube

Will the Model X have the highest towing capacity of almost any SUV or Truck?

 

[FredTMC]

No idea where it goes this week but I'm thinking that people hanging on for quarterly delivery numbers will blunt a "sell the news" scenario on Wednesday.

Really good point. Hadn't thought of that. Yes, this is an unusual week with Q3 numbers following right behind MX reveal

 

[pGo]

Model X towing capacity is 5000 pounds. Some people were complaining just because of the links you've mentioned (over-promise and under-deliver).

Model X tow capacity is too low for me

 

[Drax7]

People that buy $100,00 SUVs don't tow.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

People that buy $100,00 SUVs don't tow.

Think Truck and SUV buyers. A Mid range SUV Costs around $50,000 in the United States. In China, the BMW X5 costs around $150,000, not including other fees. The Model X will probably start around between $60,000 and $70,000, and will probably be exempt from a lot of the fees gasoline SUVs need are subject to.

If you're traveling, or taking a road trip with a lot of heavy equipment, machinery, or gear, do you want to throw the equipment in the trunk or put it in a trailer?

A Profitable Trade: Illicitly Shipping BMWs to China - WSJ

The Model X will probably have more storage space than any comparable vehicle, if not any vehicle, and the ability to effortless tow up to 10,000 pounds. This is a big deal.

 

[aznt1217]

People that buy $100,00 SUVs don't tow.

Not true. They tow their boats and seadoos.

Anyway, new investors feel fortunate that you are getting a nice price on these shares. I'm surprised they've been depressed so long. I can't wait to look back at this thread this time next year and then 3 years from now. Hopefully browsing from my Model 3

 

[hershey101]

You people are forgetting that its the end of the quarter on Wednesday... That's part of the reason of the selloff in $TSLA. I suspect the selloff continues tomorrow and we are down slightly (although not as bad as today). This will give a fantastic setup for going into wednesday with a bump coming from the X reveal, and then those that sold off for end of quarter window dressing to buy back on thursday, and friday with the delivery numbers out on friday. Assuming these two events are positive, and macro stabilization, we might return back up to $270ish. A new ATH won't happen without positive news at the next CC. Till then, I'm buying down into the $230s and a little in the $240s and selling around the $260s..

 

[jhm]

I'd say buy into the event. Tesla is still only guiding for ~15,000 Model X sales in 2016, and hasn't officially guided for sales well beyond that figure. I also think there will be a few surprises about the Model X that no-one has discussed, or that aren't currently perceived to be significant.

Another positive, the Tesla event will happen a day after a big market sel off.

The main negative I can see is this week being the last week of the quarter.

If Tesla can do this perfecty, it will also position Tesla as a solution to the problems Volkswagen has created.

The recent weakness is probably partially due to a lot of funds with significant exposure to German automobile manufacturers rushing to rebalance their books.

I thought Tesla had guided something like 40k X and 40k S for 2016. It was a capacity of upto 1000/week for each model, with the average being about 80% capacity. Is my recollection correct?

 

[dmunjal]

Does the Q3 shipment reveal happen on Friday because the 3rd day is a Saturday? Before or after the market close?

Thinking of buying weeklies that expire this Friday.

 

[Krugerrand]

Does the Q3 shipment reveal happen on Friday because the 3rd day is a Saturday? Before or after the market close?

Thinking of buying weeklies that expire this Friday.

I don't think Tesla ever specified if it was 3 days or 3 'business' days, the latter making Monday a possibility.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Just to give everyone a reminder, here is the quote from Tesla on delivery announcement:

Going forward, Tesla will publish the number of new car deliveries within three days of quarter end. We have decided to take this approach, because inaccurate sources of information are sometimes used by others to project the number of vehicle deliveries.

So far, we have seen announcements on Thursday the 2nd, and Friday the 3rd. I would expect the announcement on Friday 10/2, but it could theoretically be 10/1, 10/2, 10/3 or 10/5.

 

[Scott Ales]

With all other recent Tesla events (at least those that I can remember), buy the rumor and sell the news worked very well. However, given the major macro event, this is muting the buy the rumor effect. My plan was to sell my J16's tomorrow just before the reveal but now I am not so sure. How is everyone else going to play this?

I have J16's, M16's, and J17's averaged quite evenly. The J16's I bought because the Model 3 is revealed in Detroit a few days prior to their expiration. I'm using that as a security blanket to hold as long as possible to meet my disciplined sell target. Which I do expect will happen well before then. The others I will only sell if we hit $300 or very close. Too many interesting things happening well in our favor.

As a 30+ year car guy working directly in the automotive industry I really don't think people see the freight train coming down the tracks on the Model X. And the most overlooked aspect to these cars are the longevity they will provide. In 10 years you WILL see many 1 million mile Teslas on the road. I estimate our annual new car sales will decrease by 20-30% by then. And you won't be able to give a used ICE car to someone. They won't want to drive a ticking time bomb where the engine or tranny dies and the car is then scrap!

 

[doggusfluffy]

Assessing the Human Toll of Volkswagen’s Diesel Deception

California also has the largest number of diesel passenger cars — some 50,000 of them, said Dave Clegern, a spokesman for the state’s air resources board, which regulates air quality in the state. Regulation has helped, Mr. Clegern said, but “we still have a significant problem.” Regulations are developed with automakers at the table, he said, and “in order to do that, you have to have a level of trust.” Regarding the Volkswagen deception, he said, “This kind of thing is, to say the least, absolutely no help.”

 

[MartinAustin]

So far, we have seen announcements on Thursday the 2nd, and Friday the 3rd. I would expect the announcement on Friday 10/2, but it could theoretically be 10/1, 10/2, 10/3 or 10/5.

Also, note: the "early announced deliveries number," that is announced within three days of quarter end, is a "best available information" number. The REAL/FINAL/NO SERIOUSLY deliveries number is provided in the Earnings Report, after they've had a few more days to iron out some wrinkles in the figures from territories all around the world. The adjustment has been very slight so far, but the within-three-days number is not the actual number, just the most accurate figure they have available.

 

[Perfectlogic]

I thought Tesla had guided something like 40k X and 40k S for 2016. It was a capacity of upto 1000/week for each model, with the average being about 80% capacity. Is my recollection correct?

I'm pretty sure you are correct, I think Elon said 16-1800/week and around 50/50 X/S. 15k X sales makes no sense.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Just a quick news alert everyone: Elon just posted a new tweet, says the event is at 8pm.
~

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendations 09/29

Ben Kallo reiterated his PT of $335 with an "outperform" recommendation.
guess you have heard about the airbag issue Tesla might have. It's about Takata, the company producing airbags. Probably there is a recall to be expected.

find below what the chief of staff to Angela Merkel is saying:

{NSN NVDRWN6VDKHS<Go>}
By Rainer Buergin and Hans Nichols
(Bloomberg) -- Peter Altmaier, chief of staff to Chancellor
Angela Merkel, challenged German carmakers to prove their
country remains a leader in the auto industry by beating Tesla
Motors Inc. in the electric-car market.
“I know Elon Musk, I met him last year, he’s an impressive
guy and his Tesla car is an impressive car,” Altmaier said in
an interview with Bloomberg Television in Berlin. “I would be
very pleased if the German carmakers would be able to produce an
e-car that’s better and cheaper than Elon Musk’s car.”
Germany is trying to shore up its reputation in the auto
industry after Volkswagen AG admitted rigging emission-test
results on some of its diesel engines. The revelation cost the
company 20 billion euros ($22.4 billion) in market value and
prompted Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn to step down.
“We have to make sure that the brand is not damaged,”
Altmaier said, referring to the whole German auto industry. The
government is “working hard to contain the damage.”
Volkswagen’s Porsche unit this month unveiled a four-seater
electric sports car at the Frankfurt International Auto Show
that may challenge Tesla. The Mission E accelerates faster than
a 911, charges in just 15 minutes and is due to reach the market
in five years.
The car will be “better than a Tesla,” Matthias Mueller,
the former Porsche chief, said at the event. Mueller took over
as head of Volkswagen after Winterkorn’s resignation.
Altmaier said automakers should use the challenge of
reducing emissions to spur innovation. He said he also thinks
diesel cars still have advantages and he could imagine himself
buying a Volkswagen but the company has to clarify every single
aspect of what went wrong.
“The automobile industry has to adapt to the environmental
challenge that we are facing all around the globe and I’m
optimistic that this crisis, this issue, can help us to promote
even more environmentally-friendly technologies,” he said.

 

[Scott Ales]

Ben Kallo reiterated his PT of $335 with an "outperform" recommendation.
guess you have heard about the airbag issue Tesla might have. It's about Takata, the company producing airbags. Probably there is a recall to be expected.

find below what the chief of staff to Angela Merkel is saying:

I think that is absolutely hilarious! So basically, Porsche is saying that they are releasing a car today that can beat say a Ferrari from 2010. Right? I mean bragging about producing a better product than the most advanced producer today with the assumption that that said company will not innovate anything else for the next five years is....

Ludicrous!

How can anyone make a statement that you will produce a car better than someone else's car that hasn't even been disclosed? The 2019 Tesla will be what?

- - - Updated - - -

Might be good to listen to Jerome this morning before the big show!

Tuesday September 29th

11:00am Jerome Guillen of Tesla Motors;

http://fortune.com/2015/09/25/brainstorm-e-2015-livestream/

 

[Drax7]

head of Porsche was blowing smoke , he was aware already of the scandal to be
announced.