What is the expectation on Q3 numbers vs. forecasted earlier? I'm very nervous with low expectations.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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What is the expectation on Q3 numbers vs. forecasted earlier? I'm very nervous with low expectations.
This is sort of a nicer, more concise version of my semi prediction earlier about timing the market expecting red for a while. I don't think we see green for a while unless we get a large beat or other surprises.
Come 2016 though, I think things go green for quite some time.
Wasn't there something about this data no longer encompassing total deliveries due to changes in who is able to redeem a rebate? That would make this data understated. I don't have the time right now to look into it (at work), but would love it if someone could, as well as posting the graph of the previous quarters?
Here are the exact income limitations. Per the website info from June 2015, they said they were about 6 months away from implementing the rules, and until then there would be no income limitations. I'll check further to verify no current income limitations.
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/aqip/fundplan/proposed_fy15-16_funding_plan.pdf
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
September new car sales numbers to top 18 million.
New car sales numbers at 10 year high.
In the US double digit sales jumps across the marques.
Best selling vehicle segment: SUV.
Personally I expect Tesla Motors to roughly hit their guidance for Q3 this time as there was no big desaster during Q3 that I know of.
New car sales numbers at 10 year high.
In the US double digit sales jumps across the marques.
Best selling vehicle segment: SUV.
Personally I expect Tesla Motors to roughly hit their guidance for Q3 this time as there was no big desaster during Q3 that I know of.
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Thank you very much for the clarification. So these numbers would be precise except for the 2 remaining days in the quarter.
mmd
Active Member
Yes, that's what I meant. I think, at the beginning of last month, folks on TMC were expecting to see about 27 or 29 deliveries, based on who all were invited to configure etc. Also, this event was touted as a "delivery ceremony", so I think anyone would have expected at least a few tens delivered. This would have spread the buzz also.
The fact that only 6 cars were sort-of delivered, and then the same few cars were used for test rides in a 1000+ gathering indicates to me, that even hand building these cars is quite difficult, and they barely made 6 of these. This, after announcing the event one month ago and multiple delays.
But I thought, today's price drop was due to a not-so-great Q3 delivery estimate from insideevs.com. I could be wrong
FWIW, Cory Johnson thinks the handful at the even were "hand made" and doesn't have "production parts".
Will the New Model X Help Tesla Reach Its Sales Goals? [Video] - NASDAQ.com
Side note: I know the love for Cory here. Don't shoot the messenger.
I personally don't know what to believe. I think I will believe Tesla has a production car once Bonnie gets her car.
Will the New Model X Help Tesla Reach Its Sales Goals? [Video] - NASDAQ.com
Side note: I know the love for Cory here. Don't shoot the messenger.
I personally don't know what to believe. I think I will believe Tesla has a production car once Bonnie gets her car.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I don't see an upside to the Q3 numbers release
If they miss by even a few hundred it could be ugly. Unless they beat guidance by at least 2-3k I don't think it will have a positive effect.
The other thing that could be positive would be good MX numbers at the ER, or a substantial number of deliveries which we will know about.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I think you know what to believe here, does not have anything to do with a single person (like Cory).
Nobody is allowed to to e.g. crash testing with some hand made cars, that's it.
This all is getting awesome!
Damn, I bet there is no plant in Fremont at all, and the Model X are from outa space.
And that's why they are so freakin' fast.
Sorry for this joke, but please try to stick to the facts, everybody!
There was a rumor that was pulled by what was initially labeled Tesla's request and then later relabeled the user's request. This rumor indicated that only 100 Model X's will ship this year. The rumor did get pulled so that gives it some legitimacy so Cory actually has good reason to say this for once. Obviously if Sigs start getting delivery dates it won't take long to prove that rumor wrong.
Edit: "good reason" is probably the wrong word. What I'm trying to say for once what he says may not be completely made up. But hard for me to believe.
m
thanks for information about crash test only valid for production cars ,
cory Johnson is a disservice , he will do anything to undermine tesla
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
The only way you can do a reference is towards a fact.
Everything else is in the neighborhood of Volkswagen and a fraud, everybody.
Sorry, please stick to the facts.
I was at the factory on Wednesday and it was bustling with activity; I saw powerpacks for the Powerwall in production, right and left hand drive Model S's on what appeared to be a production line running at or near capacity and body panels for the Model X being stamped. I can't imagine why Tesla would be stamping parts for the X if they didn't expect the assembly of the X to scale up soon. I wasn't taken to the X production line so the MX line may be operational, or not. That said, I welcome these declines to increase my holdings.
First on what I said about that rumor - I will clearly state it is hearsay and not substantiated. But as far as references go was Elon actually referencing a NHTSA rating or a projected NHTSA rating? For one I thought the actual NHTSA rating had to come from NHTSA buying a Model X anonymously much like CR does. Second, I do not see a Model X rating on the NHTSA website. I know for the Model S Tesla did their own testing and I would imagine the same is the case here so it could be "hand-built" still if it is not official testing. The bottom line is Tesla has not committed to any specific numbers of Model X deliveries in Q4. Heck, a part of me hopes they planned to hit 50,000 on Model S alone knowing they wouldn't be able to deliver any more than 1,000 Model X or so this year. Delivering 15,000 Model S in Q4 would be quite impressive.
Crash tests were by Tesla. It's projected ratings by Musk. Not officially given out by NHTSA. I was quite surprised to the degree that Musk labored on the ratings when they are not real yet. He is selling the car. That's ok.
We are discussing the market dynamics and people are wondering why the stock is falling. Cory's line of thinking could be at play. Hence it's worth pointing it out (to say Market might be thinking like this).
Weather it's a fact or not is a different issue. If you want to discuss the price action, you have to discuss everything that's out there in the market. I see no issue with it. We can certainly debate if it's fact or not. But you can't rule out discussing it.
chickensevil
Active Member
I think the manufacturer provides the cars to them for testing, but in either case, the testing has not been done yet. This is why they have been stating they project a 5 start rating. Much like the EPA numbers, they can't commit to anything until it is officially released by the agency. In the meantime they can state what they are targeting and what they believe it will come out to be.
Buddyroe
Active Member
If Tesla hits 50,000 deliveries of the Model S alone, accumulate with everything you have. That will be impressive. I'm not sure where they'd sell all those cars, but it would have to mean that some markets were definitely gaining steam. It's funny because I heard all along, 50k S's and 5k X's. So, if they don't deliver any meaningful number of Xs, and do 50k S's, then they didn't really miss their deliveries numbers - the X was just delayed.
I hate NOT KNOWING! (duh)
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