Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Larken]

To those who talk about catching falling knives and buying at a discount, expecting TSLA to shoot back up any moment. Just remember that TSLA, like most other stocks, are subject to macro conditions. When I read here on the forum I get the impression that few even talk about the macro aspect and are blindly looking at TSLA. Kind of like missing the forest because of all the trees. Just a friendly reminder as I'd hate to see my fellow Tesla friends/investor's get burnt or caught in some kind of exuberance. Disclosure: I still own TSLA but I've trimmed my holdings substantially lately because of macro conditions. If the economy holds up I'm looking to re-enter around March 2016.
Good luck to all.

 

[aznt1217]

We are literally a day or two away from Q3 sales numbers...

DELIVERIES, not sales

 

[hockeythug]

Could be a setup for a big delivery beat.

 

[Larken]

Could be a setup for a big delivery beat.

Even if we get a delivery beat, which I think Tesla will manage to do for Q3, the big question is whether or not Tesla will be able to pull off the 50,000 year target. We're already in Q4 and there's no information or clues whether the much needed ramp up to achieve the 2015 goal is on track or not. Don't mean to sound like a pessimist or bearish, I just think Tesla might have a bit too much on their plate for the remainder of the year to please everyone.

 

[FluxCap]

To those who talk about catching falling knives and buying at a discount, expecting TSLA to shoot back up any moment. Just remember that TSLA, like most other stocks, are subject to macro conditions. When I read here on the forum I get the impression that few even talk about the macro aspect and are blindly looking at TSLA. Kind of like missing the forest because of all the trees. Just a friendly reminder as I'd hate to see my fellow Tesla friends/investor's get burnt or caught in some kind of exuberance. Disclosure: I still own TSLA but I've trimmed my holdings substantially lately because of macro conditions. If the economy holds up I'm looking to re-enter around March 2016.
Good luck to all.

What he said.

 

[Scott Ales]

Even if we get a delivery beat, which I think Tesla will manage to do for Q3, the big question is whether or not Tesla will be able to pull off the 50,000 year target. We're already in Q4 and there's no information or clues whether the much needed ramp up to achieve the 2015 goal is on track or not. Don't mean to sound like a pessimist or bearish, I just think Tesla might have a bit too much on their plate for the remainder of the year to please everyone.

I would be thankful for a bump based on anything soon but also feel the energy and excitement is somewhat lost. It's into the weeds for everyone at Tesla to get in and make all the claims real. That's a task I believe they are up to but the general investing crowd will require proof and numbers.

 

[phigment]

To those who talk about catching falling knives and buying at a discount, expecting TSLA to shoot back up any moment. Just remember that TSLA, like most other stocks, are subject to macro conditions. When I read here on the forum I get the impression that few even talk about the macro aspect and are blindly looking at TSLA. Kind of like missing the forest because of all the trees. Just a friendly reminder as I'd hate to see my fellow Tesla friends/investor's get burnt or caught in some kind of exuberance. Disclosure: I still own TSLA but I've trimmed my holdings substantially lately because of macro conditions. If the economy holds up I'm looking to re-enter around March 2016.
Good luck to all.

But if you do compare it against the nasdaq you'll see it's been underperforming for the past few days.
Compare it to any other auto mfg (including VW) and it's worse than them for the same period of 3 days.

This all seems like a sell off while waiting for delivery results.

 

[FredTMC]

Even if we get a delivery beat, which I think Tesla will manage to do for Q3, the big question is whether or not Tesla will be able to pull off the 50,000 year target. We're already in Q4 and there's no information or clues whether the much needed ramp up to achieve the 2015 goal is on track or not. Don't mean to sound like a pessimist or bearish, I just think Tesla might have a bit too much on their plate for the remainder of the year to please everyone.

For me, it's one step at a time... I'm happy to first see Q3 results. My guess is they release Q3 numbers before the market opens tomorrow. That's what they did last time (July 2 at 3am EST)

 

[Scott Ales]

its been a long time since ive felt this pain. this is a bad week for me

It's often said, misery loves company....

I'm now into my personal top 5 , 35 year investing and business career loss totals for my current positions.

Of course I still love the company and product!

- - - Updated - - -

I'm going to go cut the grass.

It might be the only way I see some green for a while!:biggrin:

 

[Gtoffo]

This all seems like a sell off while waiting for delivery results.

I agree. People have seen Model X and are now cashing in to avoid getting burned by a potentially low delivery number. I'd say expectations are pretty low at the moment given all the rumours that have been going around in the last few weeks. Even here at TMC if you look at the poll we had we are expecting results in line with guidance (and we are the core of the TSLA bulls).

This might set us up for a gain even with results in line or modestly beating guidance.

 

[Scott Ales]

I agree. People have seen Model X and are now cashing in to avoid getting burned by a potentially low delivery number. I'd say expectations are pretty low at the moment given all the rumours that have been going around in the last few weeks. Even here at TMC if you look at the poll we had we are expecting results in line with guidance (and we are the core of the TSLA bulls).

This might set us up for a gain even with results in line or modestly beating guidance.

I have to agree. We could see the test of $200 before it's over. I'm am not however as optimistic about an even guidance run-up though. It could be a long hard 3-6 month slog back to mid $200s. Throw a Fed rate hike in this month and the slightest Model X glitch and the spiral could be unstoppable. Sorry everyone. I really want to be way wrong on this one.

 

[aznt1217]

I have to agree. We could see the test of $200 before it's over. I'm am not however as optimistic about an even guidance run-up though. It could be a long hard 3-6 month slog back to mid $200s. Throw a Fed rate hike in this month and the slightest Model X glitch and the spiral could be unstoppable. Sorry everyone. I really want to be way wrong on this one.

Doubtful. Secondary was at $242, banks aren't stupid lol

 

[FluxCap]

If it's any consolation, just about every hedge fund guy on the planet is 100% bearish right now, so maybe the contrarian play is to be long stocks (like TSLA). I am, perhaps shamelessly, following the herd of my fellow finance dorks on the bearish side though.

I agree with Jared Dillian in the article I linked that we could have a prolonged period of...a flat, boring market. Only way to make money in that scenario is to be the house, i.e. sell option premium. That is a risky game to pick up nickels though. Not anywhere near as fun as the throw-a-dart stock picking in 2013 that made a lot of us Teslanaires. I just don't see that kind of appreciation coming anytime soon, unless Elon has magically sold thousands more Model S and built hundreds more Model X than the market expects.

 

[Scott Ales]

If it's any consolation, just about every hedge fund guy on the planet is 100% bearish right now, so maybe the contrarian play is to be long stocks (like TSLA). I am, perhaps shamelessly, following the herd of my fellow finance dorks on the bearish side though.

I agree with Jared Dillian in the article I linked that we could have a prolonged period of...a flat, boring market. Only way to make money in that scenario is to be the house, i.e. sell option premium. That is a risky game to pick up nickels though. Not anywhere near as fun as the throw-a-dart stock picking in 2013 that made a lot of us Teslanaires. I just don't see that kind of appreciation coming anytime soon, unless Elon has magically sold thousands more Model S and built hundreds more Model X than the market expects.

Agreed again. There's just no floor until those numbers shore things up hopefully. I also felt the $242 value was a strong basis, I don't feel that anymore though. Herd is moving and there are no Cowboys or fences in the way!

 

[aznt1217]

If it's any consolation, just about every hedge fund guy on the planet is 100% bearish right now, so maybe the contrarian play is to be long stocks (like TSLA). I am, perhaps shamelessly, following the herd of my fellow finance dorks on the bearish side though.

I agree with Jared Dillian in the article I linked that we could have a prolonged period of...a flat, boring market. Only way to make money in that scenario is to be the house, i.e. sell option premium. That is a risky game to pick up nickels though. Not anywhere near as fun as the throw-a-dart stock picking in 2013 that made a lot of us Teslanaires. I just don't see that kind of appreciation coming anytime soon, unless Elon has magically sold thousands more Model S and built hundreds more Model X than the market expects.

Flux, I think you need to add in the Tesla Energy piece-- currently what I believe is the most under-appreciated aspect of the Tesla business.

 

[RubberToe]

Looks like a pretty good September for Tesla. 862 is the all time monthly high for Model S registrations in California. And that is only through the 28th...

 

[Scott Ales]

Looks like a pretty good September for Tesla. 862 is the all time monthly high for Model S registrations in California. And that is only through the 28th...

View attachment 96290

My hero!

Something green!

 

[mmd]

We are literally a day or two away from Q3 sales numbers...

So what's the reason for today's sell-off? Is it the unofficial number that is pushing the stock down so much? Or is it the lingering effect from a so-so Model X reveal?

As for Model X, the fewer than expected deliveries probably means, slower ramp up and (possibly) more capital expenditure to set up the Model X line. Does anyone see this differently?

 

[The Blue Owl]

So what's the reason for today's sell-off? Is it the unofficial number that is pushing the stock down so much? Or is it the lingering effect from a so-so Model X reveal?

I think it's because only very few Model X cars were delivered at the reveal, and there is no date announced yet for Signature deliveries. The market wants to see production at volume, especially for a car with such an ambitious design.

In the meantime, good quarterly delivery numbers may help.

 

[mejojo]

As for Model X, the fewer than expected deliveries probably means, slower ramp up and (possibly) more capital expenditure to set up the Model X line. Does anyone see this differently?

What does the "fewer than expected deliveries" mean? Fewer at the reveal than you expected to see at the reveal?