Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

First on what I said about that rumor - I will clearly state it is hearsay and not substantiated. But as far as references go was Elon actually referencing a NHTSA rating or a projected NHTSA rating? For one I thought the actual NHTSA rating had to come from NHTSA buying a Model X anonymously much like CR does. Second, I do not see a Model X rating on the NHTSA website. I know for the Model S Tesla did their own testing and I would imagine the same is the case here so it could be "hand-built" still if it is not official testing. The bottom line is Tesla has not committed to any specific numbers of Model X deliveries in Q4. Heck, a part of me hopes they planned to hit 50,000 on Model S alone knowing they wouldn't be able to deliver any more than 1,000 Model X or so this year. Delivering 15,000 Model S in Q4 would be quite impressive.

Uselesslogin, thank you for your post.

Folks there is someone in Fremont sitting and hand welding a Model X vehicle frame for Sergey Brin.
Next door is someone sitting and working on a hand made leather dashboard for Steve Jurvetson.
Next door there is someone sitting bending the falcon wing doors for ...
No way these cars are hand build.
Someone from vehicle manufacturing here and help me please?!

As a normal process during ramp up the time needed for manual rework of the car declines (please keep in mind about 25% of new cars at e.g. BMW need manual rework).
I could imagine that the time currently needed for the manual rework of the car is relatively high right now, and Tesla Motors is not happy woth this time.
But this is normal during start of production of a new vehicle model, that's it.

So let's talk about figures and not fears.
What about the 6 week pause that we had with the Model S between Founders Series deliveries and Signature deliveries.
Any signs that we will have the same pause during start of production of Model X?

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think I remember Elon saying earlier this year that they could hit 50k on Model S alone, the only problem would be if they hit some issues with X already in production which could slow down the S assembly as part of the line is the same.
---
Just a heads up everybody, an article just hit SA where they already speculate on a miss for Q3 based on insideevs US estimates and Norwegian, Dutch and Swedish numbers. they say the miss based these 4 countries would be 2k cars compared to Q2, but about half of it could be made up by the first volume AWD deliveries to RHD countries. It is pretty clear the author is following the TMC threads.

I am still a bit puzzled if there is indeed a miss as we had no indications of a production issue through the quarter and so far TMC has always had some observations, info, rumor so we were never quite shocked by the numbers. We'll see tomorrow i guess.
---
On the X, I don't buy the whole hand built and less than 100 this year. I think they may have planned for 50k S and 5k X earlier and guided down when they realized the X goals were too ambitious. However they would not have invited all the 1200 US Sig holders to configure in September if they knew they would not deliver the cars before January. I would expect 1200 to be the minimal target - I mean for God's sake that's like 100 cars per week, or 20 per day - they could even hand build that for that matter.

The only question for me if they will go beyond the 1200 this year, but I think they will probably wait a week or so after the first 100-200 sigs are done to check for issues before deciding on that.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

We are discussing the market dynamics and people are wondering why the stock is falling. Cory's line of thinking could be at play. Hence it's worth pointing it out (to say Market might be thinking like this).

Weather it's a fact or not is a different issue. If you want to discuss the price action, you have to discuss everything that's out there in the market. I see no issue with it. We can certainly debate if it's fact or not. But you can't rule out discussing it.

Again, thank you for your post SBenson.

I agree, not only facts will move the market, fiction will do as well.
Only important to try to distinguish between fact and fiction.

- - - Updated - - -

On the X, I don't buy the whole hand built and less than 100 this year. I think they may have planned for 50k S and 5k X earlier and guided down when they realized the X goals were too ambitious. However they would not have invited all the 1200 US Sig holders to configure in September if they knew they would not deliver the cars before January. I would expect 1200 to be the minimal target - I mean for God's sake that's like 100 cars per week, or 20 per day - they could even hand build that for that matter.

The only question for me if they will go beyond the 1200 this year, but I think they will probably wait a week or so after the first 100-200 sigs are done to check for issues before deciding on that.

I could imagine a 6 week pause during Founders and Signature deliveries as with the Model S.
That would reduce the timeframe for ramp up the production for Model X during Q4.

 

[SBenson]

Again, thank you for your post SBenson.

I agree, not only facts will move the market, fiction will do as well.
Only important to try to distinguish between fact and fiction.

Yes, agreed.

 

[sub]

an article just hit SA

I lost interest at this point, kidding but not really. I'll go back to what I said earlier this morning, why would production go down? If what people are saying about the X is true (hand built) then they are not slowing down the production line. Tesla is not short on Orders. How are they going to deliver less than last Qtr? We have known forever that deliveries are shifted from region to region and month to month. It doesn't matter that a few countries are a bit low if you agree that there is no reason for Tesla to not have produced at least the same amount of cars as they did last Qtr and that they have a 2 month order back log. The cars are being delivered somewhere.

I haven't been following the old vs new production line information that closely, this could be the only flaw in my thinking. Have they already moved over to the new production line? It is possible there was some delay there but why would they shut down a perfectly working production line before they had the new one up and running properly? That also would make no sense. I'm not worried at all about them meeting guidance, I am worried that TSLA will drop short term regardless.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yes, agreed.

Sorry for some words that have been a bit too harsh.
Sorry.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I could imagine a 6 week pause during Founders and Signature deliveries as with the Model S.
That would reduce the timeframe for ramp up the production for Model X during Q4.

I'd like to think Tesla is a different company by now. They have several times the employees and 3 years of manufacturing and ramping experience behind them compared to 2012. I fully understand if they need more QA checks and adjustments for the first batch(es), but 6 weeks seems way too long.

Then again I have zero manufacturing experience.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yes, agreed.

Sorry for some words that have been too harsh.
Sorry.

 

[pGo]

I think the issue here is market perception that Model X is very difficult to make based on what Elon told reporters. WSJ reported Elon saying this: "If we had known true engineering costs and complexity, we would have done fewer things."

Just based on the Model S numbers, I am skeptical they can reach 50K cars. 10K + 11.5K + ~12K leaves a huge void to fill in Q4 without significant Model X. I feel that market will try to adjust pricing based on the progress of Model X ramp. In the short run, tomorrow's Q3 numbers matter which I am hoping are good.

 

[mmd]

No way these cars are hand build.
Someone from vehicle manufacturing here and help me please?!

No one said 100% hand-built. But a significant x% of the X is probably hand-built now, and hence only 6 cars showed up for Tuesday's event. If it could be almost completed on an automated assembly line, I think we would have seen many cars brought to the event and some spread across stores and service centers for test drives, like the 70D. And some sig deliveries.

This is my logical deduction, and not a proven fact. It is not based on what Cory or someone else said. But Cory is not alone. If anyone saw Bob Lutz on CNBC, he said the same thing.

 

[hockeythug]

Still waiting for Jurvetson to post a picture of his other than the ones he did at the event.

 

[uselesslogin]

Folks there is someone in Fremont sitting and hand welding a Model X vehicle frame for Sergey Brin.
Next door is someone sitting and working on a hand made leather dashboard for Steve Jurvetson.
Next door there is someone sitting bending the falcon wing doors for ...
No way these cars are hand build.
Someone from vehicle manufacturing here and help me please?!

As a normal process during ramp up the time needed for manual rework of the car declines (please keep in mind about 25% of new cars at e.g. BMW need manual rework).
I could imagine that the time currently needed for the manual rework of the car is relatively high right now, and Tesla Motors is not happy woth this time.
But this is normal during start of production of a new vehicle model, that's it.

Sorry if I'm not clear but the quotes are intended to imply something closer to your second scenario and very far away from your first scenario. But I do think that we may only see Sigs get delivered this year.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

This is my logical deduction, and not a proven fact. It is not based on what Cory or someone else said. But Cory is not alone. If anyone saw Bob Lutz on CNBC, he said the same thing.

???

 

[doggusfluffy]

Volkswagen Sales Are Flat in First Report Since Scandal

Volkswagen’s sales, with the exception of its luxury Audi brand (which gained 16 percent), lagged far behind the rest of the industry, which reported a blockbuster September almost across the board. General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and Nissan all had double-digit sales gains, largely helped by a strong Labor Day weekend.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Sorry if I'm not clear but the quotes are intended to imply something closer to your second scenario and very far away from your first scenario. But I do think that we may only see Sigs get delivered this year.

Ok, I get it.
So a vehicle that I would say needed a lot of manual rework.
Agree.

 

[SBenson]

Sorry for some words that have been a bit too harsh.
Sorry.

No worries at all

 

[Drax7]

USA aggregate car sales are approaching highest levels ever, tesla California sales just reached new highs,
it would be fair to deduce that tesla sales and production figures will be at least as good as guidance.
Now if the second assembly line which is flexible is spewing out some model s, we may get an
upward surprise. Just my opinion based on straws in the air.

 

[FredTMC]

What is the expectation on Q3 numbers vs. forecasted earlier? I'm very nervous with low expectations.

I'm optimistic (confident) that tesla will BEAT guidance. I expect tesla will release results tomorrow. They released last quarter on July 2.

as for guidance, last quarter results were as follows: q2 production 12.8k. Delivered 11.5k

for Q3 guidance is: "In Q3, we expect to produce just over 12,000 vehicles, representing a more than 60% increase from a year ago, and deliver approximately the same number of vehicles as in Q2, despite having one week of planned shutdown in Q3. This includes a small number of Model X deliveries."

 

[uselesslogin]

Still waiting for Jurvetson to post a picture of his other than the ones he did at the event.

In case you are still waiting :Bubba Murarka on Twitter:

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

I hope this is okay to post here, in case anyone missed it. I just find it a little hard, to wade through all of the seat-gate and plywood-gate posts.

Everyone needs a few moments of good reports - Tesla, Elon and Investors.

I recommend the, Car And Driver, Road and Track, and Motor Trend liinks:

This is kind of a cross-post from the Model X subforum, but it is News and all of it glowing and welcome after the long wait for Tesla's third automobile offering. Everyone needs a few moments of good reports - Tesla, Elon and forum members.


TheVerge: Tesla’s Model X is finally here, and I got to drive it | The Verge

Jalopnik: What Its Like To Drive The Tesla Model X

Road and Track: Tesla Model X Driving Impressions: It's Unsettlingly Fast

Motor Trend: This Electric Crossover is Full of Awesome Tech Surprises
2016 Tesla Model X: 15 Things to Know About the EV CUV All Pages


Wired: Tesla’s Model X Is Here, and It’s as Awesome as We Hoped
http://www.wired.com/2015/09/tesla-m...l-specs-price/

USA Today: First drive: Tesla Model X is an awesome way to spend $132,000

Car and Driver: 2016 Tesla Model X: Tesla's Electric Crossover Finally Spreads Its Wings
Enter the electric falcon.
2016 Tesla Model X Official Photos and Info Car and Driver

Gizmodo: Tesla's Model X Is Finally Here: The Stuff We Didn't Already Know (UPDATED)
Teslat Already Know (UPDATED)

Mashable: Tesla Model X revealed: 250-mile range, Falcon Wing doors, Ludicrous mode

Business Insider: Here is the Tesla Model X - Business Insider

Green Car Reports: Tesla Model X: The New Safest SUV?

CNET: Tesla Model X: Getting behind the wheel of an all-electric, high-performance SUV
2016 Tesla Model X Preview - CNET

AOL video:
Tesla Model X Test Drive - AOL On

Fox Business: Tesla Model X a 'Litmus Test' for SUVs and Luxury Cars
Tesla Model X a for SUVs and Luxury Cars | Fox Business

It's powerful, yet whisper quiet. It has has cool, power-lift "falcon wing doors" over the second row. By now, all the world knows that. But taken together, the raft of innovations in Tesla Model X creates something entirely new. Competitors are left looking like they are wallowing in complacency.

From Munich to Tokyo to Detroit, we suspect two predictable events are happening this week. One is a sense that that brilliant but crazy, Mars-loving Elon Musk has gone overboard and that he has built a vehicle with far more complexity than his plant workers will be able to handle. Second, and far more telling will be a sense of "why didn't we think of that?"

The Model X is loaded — and we're not being overdramatic here — with features that just seem beyond the pale of anything the traditional auto industry seemed to care about or would be willing to try. There's so much new stuff that talking about the electric drivetrain and its 250-mile range, which no other automaker can touch at the moment, seems passe.

For instance, the rear seats sit on pedestals, allowing under-seat storage. We've seen that on concept cars at auto shows. But when it comes to producing those same cars for the public, major automakers always turn back to their traditional ways