Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Scott Ales]

Tesla won't need to do another capital raise, although it might make sense if Tesla wants to begin building a second or third factory ahead of schedule. The moment Tesla begins taking reservations for the Model 3, and finalizing orders for the Powerwall and Powerpack, Tesla will have a few billion to invest in increasing production.

From what we know I would agree. But they have surprised everyone many times and I certainly don't expect them to settle into a more traditional manufacturing role now. I have to believe there is a pickup in the near future. Just sayin'! You never know when you might need a little more cash. Maybe buy a VW plant a bit sooner than expected!

 

[austinEV]

It's 2012 all over again. Personally, I hope and pray the stock is at $250/share Jan 31 2016. Why? There is no way it won't be above $350 june of next year. It will be 2013 all over again. I hope negative chatter about missing deliveries by 50 vehicles, or model X due-bill items in the first 2000 cars keeps the stock trading nice and low... Then the model 3 is shown, they tweet that they are cash flow positive. They tweet high production numbers for the X. Awards roll in. GF produces batteries. All in 1H '16... Keep talking it down fellas If it just drifts up to an ATH in the next few months it won't be as optiony fun.

Keep talking about seatgate

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Does anybody think that Glencore short squeeze could last a couple of days and pull some money out of TSLA during this week cause people don't want to miss Glencore party?
Up about 40% during Hong Kong trading, now up about 10% in Frankfurt.
Currently I have only some real gamble money on the Glencore table (.5% of my account).
I have the impression some big boys played with this stock during the last months.
What does anybody else think about this?

BTW I do feel a lot better about my TSLA stock and some options that I have as TSLA is a long term investing strategy for me and I do know a lot more about Tesla Motors and the automotive sector than Glencore and business.
Always be careful with your investments.

 

[RobStark]

Most people that can afford a $100k vehicle have more than one vehicle.

X as a people hauler/commuter and an EREV truck for towing and hauling stuff from home depot.

Until batteries are good enough for a compelling Tesla pick up.

 

[Joel]

It's 2012 all over again. Personally, I hope and pray the stock is at $250/share Jan 31 2016. Why? There is no way it won't be above $350 june of next year. It will be 2013 all over again. I hope negative chatter about missing deliveries by 50 vehicles, or model X due-bill items in the first 2000 cars keeps the stock trading nice and low... Then the model 3 is shown, they tweet that they are cash flow positive. They tweet high production numbers for the X. Awards roll in. GF produces batteries. All in 1H '16... Keep talking it down fellas If it just drifts up to an ATH in the next few months it won't be as optiony fun.

Keep talking about seatgate

My thoughts exactly. I figure six months is the time line. By end of March 2016, S and X production will be around 1,800 cars a week, the Model 3 reveal will have occurred, and Tesla will be cash flow positive.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

TSLA currently up about 3% in Frankfurt.
DAX up 2% in Frankfurt.
Does anybody think we will hop over that $250 area today after the open and close above that level with the recent news?
Or will we see a fade as during some recent trading sessions and a close below the $250 level?
What are the expectations for today/week?

BTW is this news, or did we hear this already last Wednesday (link)?

TSLA "outperform" reiterated, target $334
Oct 5, 2015 7:36 AM EDT
Robert W. Baird
October 5 (FlashRatings.com) - Analysts at Robert W. Baird maintain their "outperform" rating for Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA). The target price is $334.
Robert W. Baird notes, "We see a string of positive catalysts ahead, we would be buyers and TSLA remains one ...

 

[chickensevil]

My thoughts exactly. I figure six months is the time line. By end of March 2016, S and X production will be around 1,800 cars a week, the Model 3 reveal will have occurred, and Tesla will be cash flow positive.

I had commented about this in a PM conversation with another forum member who was asking me about the timing of things. The stock could go either direction and everywhere in between between now and the Q1 ER, but if things fall into place as they are looking to be at this time, come May-ish timeframe with the Q1 ER happening we will either be starting the new ride to the top or already in the middle of that journey.

Consider the following (some were already listed but figure it should all be put in one big list):
1: Model X in full production swing. Tons of reviews, ratings, and potential awards on the horizon by this point.
2: Model S sales still going stronger than ever (based on Elon's latest comments about the S orders going up along with the X)
3: Production stronger than ever at 1600+ cars a week
4: We should finally see the claimed cash flow positives as we have a short lul between the end of all the expansion spendings of the Model X and the start of full swing Model 3 R&D/Expenses. (this is single-handedly the biggest catalyst toward a higher share value. Financial people love to see big green numbers!)
5: Model 3 will have been shown to the world in March (worst case April?)
6: Gigafactory will hopefully be online producing its first cells by May (again, that is sorta a worst case there as well)
7: Stationary storage should finally be giving us some real data sometime between now and then.

So with cash flows showing they *can* do it, and all the other things showing a bright future to continue for the company, it will have no choice but to elicit a response on the share value. I do think that cash flow positive they have been talking about is the most important aspect in all of this. Without it, we might hit ATH's but the path to getting there isn't as clear, nor do I think it will go as high before peaking out again. Also, if all these things can come together around the same timing (within a month or two of each other) it will have a *very* dramatic shock and awe affect on the stock a-la Spring 2013.

 

[SBenson]

“We worried there might be some cannibalization” of Model S demand by Model X buyers, he said at a SolarCity Corp. event. “But they probably went to the website and saw there’s a one-year wait” for the SUV and ordered the sedan instead.

From Tesla Deliveries Rise to 11,580 in Quarter as Musk Projected - Bloomberg Business

 

[Lessmog]

Ah, so that will be Elon's new 7-part trilogy? Blasting the old 5-part record into small pieces... :love:

 

[schonelucht]

4: We should finally see the claimed cash flow positives as we have a short lul between the end of all the expansion spendings of the Model X and the start of full swing Model 3 R&D/Expenses. (this is single-handedly the biggest catalyst toward a higher share value. Financial people love to see big green numbers!)

Could not agree more!

 

[Drax7]

Does anybody think that Glencore short squeeze could last a couple of days and pull some money out of TSLA during this week cause people don't want to miss Glencore party?
Up about 40% during Hong Kong trading, now up about 10% in Frankfurt.
Currently I have only some real gamble money on the Glencore table (.5% of my account).
I have the impression some big boys played with this stock during the last months.
What does anybody else think about this?

BTW I do feel a lot better about my TSLA stock and some options that I have as TSLA is a long term investing strategy for me and I do know a lot more about Tesla Motors and the automotive sector than Glencore and business.
Always be careful with your investments.

better off buying Daimler than glen core

 

[Scott Ales]

I would expect Model 3 R&D to be significantly less intensive as compared to the MS & MX. I thought that was the whole point. Create the foundation for the 3 on the backs of the other two.

 

[Buddyroe]

How many Model X's does Tesla have to sell just to break even on the car? Anyone have a guess? After all, the point of the S and X were to provide the money to build the gigafactory and design and build the Model 3. I'm just wondering how many years it will take to get the millions back that were spent on things like auto-opening front doors and falcon rear doors. If it takes 3 years or more, than the X really didn't contribute to the launch of the Model 3 since the Model 3 is supposed to be out in 2 to 2.5 years.

But, I have no idea about the numbers. I would think it would be at least 25,000. And up to as many as 100,000. Any other opinions on it?

Let me also go on the record and say that I can't see the Model 3 launching until 2019 - unless Musk learned a great lesson on the X (KISS).

 

[RobStark]

Model Y will get FwD so no Musk did not learn a KISS lesson.

So from an accounting POV FwD engineering cost should be partially put into the Model Y account.

 

[Scott Ales]

How many Model X's does Tesla have to sell just to break even on the car? Anyone have a guess? After all, the point of the S and X were to provide the money to build the gigafactory and design and build the Model 3. I'm just wondering how many years it will take to get the millions back that were spent on things like auto-opening front doors and falcon rear doors. If it takes 3 years or more, than the X really didn't contribute to the launch of the Model 3 since the Model 3 is supposed to be out in 2 to 2.5 years.

But, I have no idea about the numbers. I would think it would be at least 25,000. And up to as many as 100,000. Any other opinions on it?

Let me also go on the record and say that I can't see the Model 3 launching until 2019 - unless Musk learned a great lesson on the X (KISS).

I see it a bit differently. it has been my assumption the three offerings to date established the experience from start to finish in creating a salable product. Market awareness, SuperCharger infrastructure, forcing the others to join in the EV segment, and of course proving the EV platform. Used to be, race on Sunday sell on Monday. Today's generation is less interested in a Stock Car race. Saving the planet rates quite high or at least not being a contributor to its demise in appearance or reality is the new Sunday Race!

The general public will be more accepting of a $35k EV with a 200 mile+ range if the company has successfully executed the higher end market I believe.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Such a nice and green Monday and TSLA lagging behind?!

 

[Hogfighter]

Such a nice and green Monday and TSLA lagging behind?!

There's continued uncertainty over the X ramp. Deliveries met guidance but didn't beat. As what Chicken said, we need to start seeing good financials before the stock really takes off.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

There's continued uncertainty over the X ramp. Deliveries met guidance but didn't beat. As what Chicken said, we need to start seeing good financials before the stock really takes off.

Maybe a better than expected Q3 procuction number with a big chunk of cars produced in Q3 and to be delivered in Q4 might help?
Maybe we get more info on that topic during next CC.
Every single car that they produced more in Q3 will make the ramp during Q4 less steep.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

There's continued uncertainty over the X ramp. Deliveries met guidance but didn't beat. As what Chicken said, we need to start seeing good financials before the stock really takes off.

Where there's uncertainty there's opportunity, but also risk.

I'd guess that if Tesla can ramp up the Model X, and it starts reflecting positively by Q1 of next year, there is a lot of potential upside. If people want to play the short term game, I would advise following the Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery sub-forum (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/forumdisplay.php/150-Model-X-Ordering-Production-Delivery) closely to get an indication of who is getting their cars (starting and getting through Signature series run), and how many cars total have been built.

This can give clues as to how the financials will pan out. Be careful out there though. It's tough to be objective sometimes.

 

[Buddyroe]

Again, I'm sorry for posting so much negative material. The positive is well represented on this forum, so I feel that there's no need being a cheerleader. I love Tesla and I'm emotionally invested (as well as financially of course) in them having long-term success. So, I can't help but seeing the negatives also.

Another thought I had was this. What has been the single biggest headache and complaint on the Model S? Easily, it is the retracting door handles. I mean, hands, down it has caused the most issues. One little thing that is different than the other cars has not worked right at all. So, I can't help but think what a dang nightmare these auto-opening front doors and falcon rear doors are going to be. I just don't get bringing that kind of complexity and cost to yourself when you are a fledgling auto maker. These 2 features caused huge delays and massive amounts of money - neither of which Tesla could afford to lose (time or money).

I stand by my opinion that these 2 features (as well as the HEPA filter) will sell very few cars (and actually may net a loss of sales due to people not understanding them) and make Tesla no money. And when I said Tesla should have made this car a $55-$60k starting price SUV, many people said that Tesla never intended to make this a mass market car. Well, I hate to tell everyone, but a car that starts at $55-$60k and runs about $80-$90k with options is NOT a mass market car. That is the range Tesla needed to be in for this car to sell 50,000 a year. They may sell 30k next year, but I doubt they'll ever sell that many again (~20k a year starting 2017). IMO of course. Been wrong before. Could be wrong this time. Hoping so.