Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

BMW not joining Tesla Motors in the race for the ultimate all electric driving machine BEV.

BMW i division boss Henrik Wenders confirmed that, going forward, the i8 will remain a PHEV (link).

BTW who was the first to smash his head against one of these low hanging i8 falcon wing doors while winding out of that car?!
Once again Tesla Motors showing the traditional car companies how to do improve their design.

We’re beginning to wonder if BMW will ever venture into the long-range BEV market. Our thinking right now is that BMW is not interested in entering Tesla territory.

- - - Updated - - -

Any news besides first Model X already got their VIN assigned and are supposed to be in production right now in Fremont?

Almost 850 000 shares during first trading hour?

More than half the daily trading volume after less than 1.5hrs?

 

[Scott Ales]

BMW not joining Tesla Motors in the race for the ultimate all electric driving machine BEV.

BMW i division boss Henrik Wenders confirmed that, going forward, the i8 will remain a PHEV (link).

BTW who was the first to smash his head against one of these low hanging i8 falcon wing doors while winding out of that car?!
Once again Tesla Motors showing the traditional car companies how to do improve their design.

I currently own a 2014 and can tell you it is quite challenging to get into the car.

I bought it so I could have a reference for the product and while it is very cool looking so was the Fisker.

It's a non-starter, really. Horrible acceleration compared to the instant Tesla pedal. Chunky transition from electric to gas motors too. No way the i8 is a long term seller or success.

IMHO

 

[sub]

Thanks for the laugh, couldn't have said it better. Not sure we don't need to put some here on suicide watch.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I currently own a 2014 and can tell you it is quite challenging to get into the car.
I bought it so I could have a reference for the product and while it is very cool looking so was the Fisker.
It's a non-starter, really. Horrible acceleration compared to the instant Tesla pedal. Chunky transition from electric to gas motors too. No way the i8 is a long term seller or success.
IMHO

Nice car, congrats!
Love the lightweight carbon fibre manufacturing!

I drove an i8 late last year for a couple of hours with a friend.
Great handling in turns and at high speed

The doors are great and impressive for a sports car.
For an every day car, they might be a bit complicated

Personally I like cars that I can drive during every day use.
So something like an i8 is way too expensive (they sell for $130 000 to $150 000 in the States?) and a bit too impractical for me
But I do know that BMW is very happy about the i8 cause they sell a lot more of these cars than they initially expected.

The funny thing is Tesla Motors does not stick with local optimisation like producing falcon wing doors as good as BMW, they go for global optimisation.
Like with the acceleration times, or with the interior and luggage space, or crash safety, or the HEPA air filter, or the over the air SW updates, or the own charging infrastructure (DestinationCharging program or SuperChargers), or, the aerodynamic door handles, or direct sales model, or these falcon wing doors that adept on the environment during opening/closing, or with their energy saving AWD system, or ...

 

[Scott Ales]

Nice car, congrats!
Love the lightweight carbon fibre manufacturing!

I drove an i8 late last year for a couple of hours with a friend.
Great handling in turns and at high speed

The doors are great and impressive for a sports car.
For an every day car, they might be a bit complicated

Personally I like cars that I can drive during every day use.
So something like an i8 is way too expensive (they sell for $130 000 to $150 000 in the States?) and a bit too impractical for me
But I do know that BMW is very happy about the i8 cause they sell a lot more of these cars than they initially expected.

The funny thing is Tesla Motors does not stick with local optimisation like producing falcon wing doors as good as BMW, they go for global optimisation.
Like with the acceleration times, or with the interior and luggage space, or crash safety, or the HEPA air filter, or the over the air SW updates, or the own charging infrastructure (DestinationCharging program or SuperChargers), or, the aerodynamic door handles, or direct sales model, or these falcon wing doors that adept on the environment during opening/closing, or with their energy saving AWD system, or ...

I bought it in August used just to understand it better. It is listed for sale currently and the last two sold by dealer friends of mine were at substantial losses. As mine will be too. They are declining in interest and the used cars are following the normal path of depreciation. It's a goofy car in my opinion. I hate the narrow rear tires too. When you see the car from directly behind it looks like a whimp.

 

[doggusfluffy]

The loophole that can get you $25,000 off a Tesla Model X - LA Times

The windfall could produce a public relations backlash among people who may object to tax cuts for the rich.

"This is a high-priced vehicle that only wealthy people can buy," said Karl Brauer of Kelley Blue Book. "There are a lot of people who believe we have already done enough to help Tesla."
But industry analysts said they doubted Tesla built its Model X heavy to qualify for the loophole — since a principal goal in engineering battery electric vehicles is to reduce weight, as a way of extending range.

 

[sub]

I bought it in August used just to understand it better. It is listed for sale currently and the last two sold by dealer friends of mine were at substantial losses. As mine will be too. They are declining in interest and the used cars are following the normal path of depreciation. It's a goofy car in my opinion. I hate the narrow rear tires too. When you see the car from directly behind it looks like a whimp.

Have you seen the i3 tires? Everyone laughs at them, calls them bicycle tires. I was at a tire shop dropping off another car and all the owner/employees came running out to look at them. The i3 is no competition either, I'm only using it as a stop gap until I get a Tesla.

 

[Paracelsus]

Didn't see this link posted yet (apologize if I missed it). Some really great photos of the Tilburg facility:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2015-10-13/check-out-tesla-s-hot-new-european-factory

 

[doggusfluffy]

Volkswagens Chosen Path To Redemption? Turning Into Tesla 2.0

“There is a real chance for VW to even extract something positive from the diesel fiasco,” said Stefan Bratzel, head of the Center of Automotive Management think-tank near Cologne.

“Funnelling more resources into electric mobility gives them a credible future perspective to try to overcome this crisis.”

 

[austinEV]

I have a humble suggestion for TMC. Just as there is TMC connect flair, we could add a flair (like stocktwits I think) that simply shows where you are on the bullish/bearish spectrum? That way we wouldn't have to waste energy trying to categorize people. I think we have a lot of posts like this:

* post a thing, kind of critical of what TM is doing.
* Someone flames them for being a bear.
* Someone else defends them saying maybe, but so what? we should hear contrary opinions.
* people chime in agreeing with this.

rinse/repeat. I feel like if the original poster just had his flair set on the bearish side we would recognize the mindset of the poster and just respect it for what it is. We could still flame someone who pretends to be a bull but posts negatively, but then that would be appropriate. We could just say "you shouldn't claim to be a bull". That way if the 5-6 posters who are grumpy and bearish could simply declare that and it would help the conversation along. We would also have posts were people say they are changing a little bit, and it would be interesting when people flop from one to the other, and the flair would keep these opinions persistent.

It SOUNDS a little bit like putting a target on your back in a bullish forum, but I think it might actually have the opposite effect and keep things civil. crazy idea?

 

[AlMc]

Didn't see this link posted yet (apologize if I missed it). Some really great photos of the Tilburg facility:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2015-10-13/check-out-tesla-s-hot-new-european-factory

Thanks for the link. Nice.

 

[Bobbyducati]

wiped away several grand in put unrealized gains today, did very little for recovering on my calls. seems to be my fate these days.

 

[AlMc]

I have a humble suggestion for TMC. Just as there is TMC connect flair, we could add a flair (like stocktwits I think) that simply shows where you are on the bullish/bearish spectrum? That way we wouldn't have to waste energy trying to categorize people. I think we have a lot of posts like this:

* post a thing, kind of critical of what TM is doing.
* Someone flames them for being a bear.
* Someone else defends them saying maybe, but so what? we should hear contrary opinions.
* people chime in agreeing with this.

rinse/repeat. I feel like if the original poster just had his flair set on the bearish side we would recognize the mindset of the poster and just respect it for what it is. We could still flame someone who pretends to be a bull but posts negatively, but then that would be appropriate. We could just say "you shouldn't claim to be a bull". That way if the 5-6 posters who are grumpy and bearish could simply declare that and it would help the conversation along. We would also have posts were people say they are changing a little bit, and it would be interesting when people flop from one to the other, and the flair would keep these opinions persistent.

It SOUNDS a little bit like putting a target on your back in a bullish forum, but I think it might actually have the opposite effect and keep things civil. crazy idea?

I see that you have included that you can change your 'setting'. However, I may be in the minority. I describe my investing strategy as 'hybid'. I have long term core shares (bull) but my short term feelings can change very quickly (options) to take advantage of a real or perceived change by 'Mr. (or Mrs) Market whether it be a macro or 'in house' positive or negative change in attitudes towards TSLA.

Guess there could be a chameleon category along with bull/bear:wink:

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Didn't see this link posted yet (apologize if I missed it). Some really great photos of the Tilburg facility:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2015-10-13/check-out-tesla-s-hot-new-european-factory

Nice report.
Tesla Motors is reported to be able to crank out up to 450 vehicles for European delivery per week.

With Elon Musk confirming global combined demand for Model S and X currently at about 100 000 vehicles last week in Fremont, this is really good news. The company is really expanding in multiple areas and setting itself up for further sustainable growth during the next quarters.

 

[aznt1217]

This is just crazy

Journalists Trespass, Assault Tesla employees at the Gigafactory | Tesla Motors

 

[austinEV]

I see that you have included that you can change your 'setting'. However, I may be in the minority. I describe my investing strategy as 'hybid'. I have long term core shares (bull) but my short term feelings can change very quickly (options) to take advantage of a real or perceived change by 'Mr. (or Mrs) Market whether it be a macro or 'in house' positive or negative change in attitudes towards TSLA.

Guess there could be a chameleon category along with bull/bear:wink:

Well I guess I see that as a problem. You can be long term bull, short term bear. Fine, 2 flairs If you are more complex than that, it is an opt-in program anyway.

 

[Papafox]

Hopefully, someone at Tesla will have a nice chat with a top manager at the Reno Gazette Journal and an understanding can be reached. There's nothing to be gained by getting into a feud with the media. Let this blog post serve as a wakeup call for future would-be tresspassers, but let's hope it dies down from here.

This is just crazy

Journalists Trespass, Assault Tesla employees at the Gigafactory | Tesla Motors

 

[CatB]

This is just crazy

Journalists Trespass, Assault Tesla employees at the Gigafactory | Tesla Motors

Appalling. On the one hand, we have tragedies like Jason Razaian (Washington Post) being convicted in Iran, and then these guerrilla paparazzis give journalists a bad name. That's just criminal.

 

[30seconds]

I had to add some Jan17s today.

 

[vgrinshpun]

With the current plan of delivering, at best, NA Signature MX in 2015, the goal of 50K delivered MS/MX seemed to be increasingly unlikely. The problem is that new BIW line is being used for slow ram-up of MX. The "old" BIW line which is producing MS was maxed out at 1100-1200 cars, with OT (as compared to a standard 2 shift operation). In reality, in terms of an average output, I think that existing line is maxed out at 1100 cars per week.

So, taking 12 working weeks/quarter (given the history), maximum production of MX seem to be limited to 13,200 cars. Even if we assume that all these cars will be delivered, the total MS/MX deliveries in Q4 are likely going to be limited to a maximum of 14,500 cars, resulting in a substantial 2,500 cars miss as compared with minimum guidance of 50K cars.

Theoretically, of course, it is possible to pull the rabbit out of the hat by may be not producing MX on the new BIW line, freeing it to produce MS, and then switching back to producing MX, but this will require tuning of the new BIW line, they can't just use new BIW for 4 weeks producing MS at a rate of 1,000 cars/week. The only way this can possibly work IMO, if they decide not to deliver any MX this year, and try to run existing BIW line at a steady 1,000 cars/week, while also ramping MS production on the new BIW line. This scenario, however, would produce noticeable drop is the estimated MS delivery times, which so far is not the case, with estimated delivery times actually increasing in the last several weeks.

So I am not very optimistic regarding the Q3 earnings call. I think that Tesla will need to share their outlook for Q4, and they will most likely lower it to perhaps 14,000 cars, with 2015 guidance lowered by about 3K cars to 47K.

The issues with this MX ramp up are relatively mundane in a bigger scheme of things, but given that this is a short term thread, I suspect, with all the shorting activity and hysteria ignited by constant bear crescendo, I am afraid that visiting sub $200 is not out of the question.

The long term outlook remains very good, but I would advise caution in the short to medium term.

I hate to be a downer here (second time for all of my posting life at TMC), but right at the beginning of the NPR's Marketplace interview (thanks to ev-enthusiast for posting) Elon answered the question about current production at the factory:
- a thousand cars a week, plus/minus?
- Approximately

Needless to say, that we are into the second full week of the quarter, and this production rate is not going to get us to the 50K cars this year. If the annual 2015 deliveries are revised down in the QR, which looks at this point as a likely scenario, we are heading below $200. I am thinking that there are going to be better buying opportunities ahead.

I could be totally wrong, but tread lightly...