Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FANGO]

Apparently, Apparently, Allegedly, They say (Tesla), Apparently

If it hasn't been proven in a court of law, it is alleged. Unless you think the media should be engaging in even more witch hunts than they already do?

 

[Lessmog]

A production rate of approximately 1000 vehicles per week brings us to an annual production volume of about 56 000 vehicles.
Please feel free to substract some weeks for holiday from that number.

The big issue about this weekly production rate is that this is not a real figure but an estimate.
And an error of only 10% could bring us either to 61 500 or 50 400 vehicles annully produced.
This would induce some wild swings in everybody's calculations/models.
I do not decide on my investments on such back of the envelope calculations.
What I do know is that demand is currently exceeding production by an order of magnitude and that's great, that's a fact.

Certainly, for some values of "approximately". But I hope you are not calculating based on a 56-week year?
365/7 makes 52 weeks and a day, ignoring leaps. TM has traditionally halted production for about one week around 4 July and one week around New Year (sometimes more). Thus, a more realistic back-of-envelope calculation would yield ca 49-50k produced, depending on the precision of the input estimate of 1,000. Which is itself in doubt considering the period of silence before ER, I suppose. My 2 c. If I had more, I'd be buying!

 

[Papafox]

I hate to say this but over analyzing what Elon says is just creating unnecessary stress and risk. We know they are making more cars than that. We also know that Tilburg can make about 450 a week. So we're talking 1000 + 450 at the present moment? Who knows. Quite frankly, Elon can't even say anything due to earnings and the quiet period. All he can say is approximately. A little bit of hesitation is probably good as it shows restraint and thinking about the consequences.

I also don't think the lowering target from 55,000 -> 50,000 "Magic figure" for deliveries is arbitrary at all. I think Tesla learned from last year and built in a 3 week "delay" that factors into their delivery numbers (being unable to deliver a full two weeks at the end of December + hiccups of 2 weeks from X implementation). I suspect these are the drivers.

Aznt, my point is the same as yours: Musk didn't really answer the question.

 

[RobStark]

If it hasn't been proven in a court of law, it is alleged.

That is true for criminal or tortious accusations.

Not for every fact under the sun.

 

[Scott Ales]

If it hasn't been proven in a court of law, it is alleged. Unless you think the media should be engaging in even more witch hunts than they already do?

The point I was making is the bias. There were no "Apparently" comments with respect to the injuries sustained by the Tesla employee or the fact that he HAD to be hit in order for these injuries to have occurred.

 

[FANGO]

That is true for criminal or tortious accusations.

You mean like assault?

 

[hobbes]

We know they are making more cars than that. We also know that Tilburg can make about 450 a week. So we're talking 1000 + 450 at the present moment? Who knows.

As Johan said:

Tesla only build cars in Fremont. Just some final assembly done in Tilburg.

You cannot add those numbers.

 

[aznt1217]

Aznt, my point is the same as yours: Musk didn't really answer the question.

Correct. I don't think he's allowed to either lol

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As Johan said:



You cannot add those numbers.

Right, but in regards to deliveries this has an impact. Far faster and more efficient to crank out parts and ship them over to Europe to have them assembled for both speed and cost than the finished goods.

 

[eepic]

This is just crazy

Journalists Trespass, Assault Tesla employees at the Gigafactory | Tesla Motors

RGJ has some other interesting details on the incident, including the drivers side window smashed with a rock, passenger seatbelt cut. Hope it wasn't TM's guards who started the physical escalation, even if they were trespassing RGJ photographer arrested after altercation with security guards near Tesla gigafactory

And... this is too good not to share from reddit:

[–]EatMoarToadsModel S P85D 12 points 3 hours ago
Am I the only one who thinks this is hysterical:

Andy Barron was booked on a charge of battery
​

at the Gigafactory?

[–]swtor_potatoTesla Fan, Model 3 Hopeful 3 points 19 minutes ago
I guess you could say it was the Gigafactories...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■)
First battery.

 

[BoerumHill]

RGJ has some other interesting details on the incident, including the drivers side window smashed with a rock, passenger seatbelt cut. Hope it wasn't TM's guards who started the physical escalation, even if they were trespassing RGJ photographer arrested after altercation with security guards near Tesla gigafactory

And... this is too good not to share from reddit:

[–]EatMoarToadsModel S P85D 12 points 3 hours ago
Am I the only one who thinks this is hysterical:

Andy Barron was booked on a charge of battery
​

at the Gigafactory?

[–]swtor_potatoTesla Fan, Model 3 Hopeful 3 points 19 minutes ago
I guess you could say it was the Gigafactories...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■)
First battery.

CSI: Miami - Horatio Caines Sunglasses Moments / One Liners - YouTube

 

[aznt1217]

RGJ has some other interesting details on the incident, including the drivers side window smashed with a rock, passenger seatbelt cut. Hope it wasn't TM's guards who started the physical escalation, even if they were trespassing RGJ photographer arrested after altercation with security guards near Tesla gigafactory

And... this is too good not to share from reddit:

[–]EatMoarToadsModel S P85D 12 points 3 hours ago
Am I the only one who thinks this is hysterical:

Andy Barron was booked on a charge of battery
​

at the Gigafactory?

[–]swtor_potatoTesla Fan, Model 3 Hopeful 3 points 19 minutes ago
I guess you could say it was the Gigafactories...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■)
First battery.

So it definitely is ahead of schedule. STOCK PRICE GOES UP! I kid I kid...

 

[schonelucht]

We also know that Tilburg can make about 450 a week. So we're talking 1000 + 450 at the present moment?

That's incorrect. Tilburg only assembles cars that have been previously manufactured in California. It's purely a play to get around import duties. We are at whatever is being produced in the US and some (at most 450) of those are then sent to the Netherlands where they are re-assembled.

 

[Cosmacelf]

He's a clown, not a politician.

And the difference is?

 

[aznt1217]

That's incorrect. Tilburg only assembles cars that have been previously manufactured in California. It's purely a play to get around import duties. We are at whatever is being produced in the US and some (at most 450) of those are then sent to the Netherlands where they are re-assembled.

This I understand, but it's important for the aspect of deliveries. I know Tilburg doesn't have the presses and equipment, it's a final assembly location which arguably speeds up the slowest element of the car's production: humans.

To be clear, Tesla isn't creating finished cars in California, disassembling, and reassembling in Tilburg they are sending parts en masse to that factory and it's being converted into a finished good which helps with shipping costs, insurance, and efficiency. It's not just an import duty play.

 

[mdemetri]

That's incorrect. Tilburg only assembles cars that have been previously manufactured in California. It's purely a play to get around import duties. We are at whatever is being produced in the US and some (at most 450) of those are then sent to the Netherlands where they are re-assembled.

I am not sure that it is that simple. The cars arrive without battery or drive-train installed; these are installed in Tilburg, followed by final assembly and testing. This must save some time at Fremont and thereby boost weekly production rate in Fremont. Moreover, the key metric is deliveries, and doubling the rate at Tilburg will undoubtedly reduce time to delivery for European cars.

While you can not simply add the numbers, it certainly increases the rate by which cars are delivered and helps to make guidance. IMHO, it was not a coincidence that the second factory in Tilburg opened just at the end of the third quarter. It opened to help meet year end delivery numbers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I am not sure that it is that simple. The cars arrive without battery or drive-train installed; these are installed in Tilburg, followed by final assembly and testing. This must save some time at Fremont and thereby boost weekly production rate in Fremont. Moreover, the key metric is deliveries, and doubling the rate at Tilburg will undoubtedly reduce time to delivery for European cars.

While you can not simply add the numbers, it certainly increases the rate by which cars are delivered and helps to make guidance. IMHO, it was not a coincidence that the second factory in Tilburg opened just at the end of the third quarter. It opened to help meet year end delivery numbers.

We should not loose sight of the fact that the production bottleneck is actually existing ("old") Body-In-White line that is presumably welds/glues/rivots MS body together. This is part of the production process that can't be done anywhere except Fremont. So the Tilburg capacity does not help in increasing the total output.

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Aznt, my point is the same as yours: Musk didn't really answer the question.

I think that we should keep in mind that the radio journalist from NPR was much more aware of all of the issues that were touched upon during the interview than an average journalist. The guy was actually thoroughly prepared and came from the factory tour just before the interview. I think that his suggestion of 1,000 cars/week was not a blind guess, he probably already knew the approximate output before asking the question, and asked it just as a confirmation. I do not see how Elon would confirm this number if it was off by 400 units...

 

[mdemetri]

We should not loose sight of the fact that the production bottleneck is actually existing ("old") Body-In-White line that is presumably welds/glues/rivots MS body together. This is part of the production process that can't be done anywhere except Fremont. So the Tilburg capacity does not help in increasing the total output.

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Is there not a new body in white which can do either Model S or X? Also, production and deliveries are not the same, speeding up deliveries to shorten the time from production will increase deliveries this quarter even if production is unchanged (but only a one time benefit).

 

[doggusfluffy]

[–]swtor_potatoTesla Fan, Model 3 Hopeful 3 points 19 minutes ago
I guess you could say it was the Gigafactories...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■)
First battery.

So it definitely is ahead of schedule. STOCK PRICE GOES UP! I kid I kid...

First cell production achieved in 2015 as well! :wink:

 

[vgrinshpun]

We should not loose sight of the fact that the production bottleneck is actually existing ("old") Body-In-White line that is presumably welds/glues/rivots MS body together. This is part of the production process that can't be done anywhere except Fremont. So the Tilburg capacity does not help in increasing the total output.

- - - Updated - - -


Is there not a new body in white which can do either Model S or X? Also, production and deliveries are not the same, speeding up deliveries to shorten the time from production will increase deliveries this quarter even if production is unchanged (but only a one time benefit).

The new BIW line is slated to produce MX only. The old BIW line is slated to produce MS only. Elon discussed this during the ER. At some point in future MS body production and MX body production will be blended together on the new BIW line, while the old BIW line will be retired.

 

[mdemetri]

The new BIW line is slated to produce MX only. The old BIW line is slated to produce MS only. Elon discussed this during the ER. At some point in future MS body production and MX body production will be blended together on the new BIW line, while the old BIW line will be retired.

There is no evidence that Model X is being produced right now on the new body in white (Bonnie has a VIN but no delivery date), so why would Tesla not use the new body in white to pump out Model S while they wait on their Model X suppliers to deliver?