Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[JRP3]

That seems odd. They don't have enough people at the factory to check a few (hundred, if that?) X's?

 

[Earlian]

There could be several positive and negative reasons. But-

We won't know - till 12/31

 

[MikeC]

Founders #13 found a new home yesterday (twitter, with pics).
Chamath Palihapitiya enjoy!

I found an article by this guy on TSLA and HaaS (hardware-as-a-service): HaaS and the future of TSLA… — Medium

Interestingly, he was short TSLA at $50 but sounds like he is long now. I also cross-posted this in the Uber competitor thread.

Three or so years ago, I made a massive miscalculation about TSLA and didn’t quite understand what it was all about. If you listened to the peanut gallery, you would have thought it was a car company and should be valued as a car company. We (or, really, I) fell for this. And after much reflection, we (erroneously) shorted it around $50/sh. It then ceremoniously ripped in our face to $100 and right before we capitulated and covered, it went down briefly enough where we could cover some of our losses and get out somewhat, but not entirely, unscathed. It was a great lesson that confirmed for me several things:

-Never stand in the way of a revolutionary, visionary Founder
-Do not stop at the first layer of detail — you must confront your biases and ask the more nuanced questions
-Believe in the future and the cycles of technology that will converge markets faster that you may think — making competitors out of disparate entities faster than you can imagine

 

[Yggdrasill]

That seems odd. They don't have enough people at the factory to check a few (hundred, if that?) X's?

I would think the first signatures will be excessively inspected. I can imagine 5 people going over every minute detail of each car for hours.

 

[hobbes]

That seems odd. They don't have enough people at the factory to check a few (hundred, if that?) X's?

I am sure they do have enough people, but they are busy with building more cars (think of how many more Ss they must be building now compared to last quarter) ! My guess is still that there are many almost completed Xs on hold which need certain parts added when they become available, which is outside of the normal workflow. It would make sense to me to get additional people for that although it doesn´t exactly fit the description of "final checkoff".

 

[AlMc]

For what it's worth wrt Model X delivery, the Tesla technician stationed in the Spokane area told me on Wednesday (when I was getting my seat belts tested) that he'll be heading down to the factory next week to assist in final checkoff of Xes being prepped for delivery.

This makes perfect sense to me. Pull in some of the techs from various Service Centers to do final inspections. These are the people that will be receiving *lots* of Xs in the future and have to do some QC at their Service center when they arrive. In addition, the more they know about the X the more experience they will have when it comes to servicing/fixing issues.

 

[JRP3]

I am sure they do have enough people, but they are busy with building more cars (think of how many more Ss they must be building now compared to last quarter) !

True, I didn't consider the larger volume of S's they are also producing at this point.

 

[Hogfighter]

For what it's worth wrt Model X delivery, the Tesla technician stationed in the Spokane area told me on Wednesday (when I was getting my seat belts tested) that he'll be heading down to the factory next week to assist in final checkoff of Xes being prepped for delivery.

He also might be over-embellishing the reason why he's going down there. It's possible that he's receiving training on how to inspect X's and prep them for delivery when they arrive in Spokane.

I hope he's going down there for his stated reason, however!

 

[pGo]

Photo

 

[FluxCap]

Photo

"Meet Alanna from Northeastern University:
"Being around for the release of Model X was remarkable. The long days spent at work were finally put into context – we created something beautiful. The whole factory was abuzz with excitement when the first cars came rolling off the assembly line. Having the chance to work through a significant portion of the production cycle is just plain cool. Finally seeing Model X roam the streets is like having your cake and eating it, too.""

Significant portion of the production cycle

 

[Causalien]

It occurred to me that the other auto manufacturer's EV programs are basically vaporware without a charging network of their own. I believe their management is probably thinking along the line of: well, there is always a backup plan of using Tesla's infrastructure if **** hit the fan. Or when push came to shove, they can sue for access.

So it might be a good idea to force sign up of other auto manufacturers and have them pay for shares of superchargers going forward. A pbased in program with increasing cost to join as time goes by will be great for this process. It also alleviate tesla's position of being the monopoly on superchargers in the courtroom.

As a Machiavelli strategist though, I would announce a different program with a reverse time schedule. With Sign up being most expensive at the beginning and getting cheaper in the end. Then, with no warning, Tesla cancels the program citing lack of sign up. This way, everyone will wait on their feet and miss the boat while simultaneously giving the judges evidence that Tesla tried not to be a monopoly.

 

[Johan]

It occurred to me that the other auto manufacturer's EV programs are basically valorware without a charging network of their own. I believe their management is probably thinking along the line of: well, there is always a backup plan of using Tesla's infrastructure if **** hit the fan. Or when push came to shove, they can sue for access.

So it might be a good idea to force sign up of other auto manufacturers and have them pay for shares of superchargers going forward. A pbased in program with increasing cost to join as time goes by will be great for this process. It also alleviate tesla's position of being the monopoly on superchargers in the courtroom.

As a Machiavelli strategist though, I would announce a different program with a reverse time schedule. With Sign up being most expensive at the beginning and getting cheaper in the end. Then, with no warning, Tesla cancels the program citing lack of sign up. This way, everyone will wait on their feet and miss the boat while simultaneously giving the judges evidence that Tesla tried not to be a monopoly.

I like the last strategy.

I think realistically if anyone tried suing for access, using accusations of monopoly, it would be pretty easy to point of Blink, Chargepoint etc. and have that monopoly claim dismissed quickly. If someone tried claiming "but Chademo/CCS isn't as fast" or "the Tesla connector and membership is proprietary" that'd be like suing Apple for having better hardware than someone else, or for not allowing Nexus phones to run iOS.

 

[Spidy]

It occurred to me that the other auto manufacturer's EV programs are basically valorware without a charging network of their own. I believe their management is probably thinking along the line of: well, there is always a backup plan of using Tesla's infrastructure if **** hit the fan. Or when push came to shove, they can sue for access.

So it might be a good idea to force sign up of other auto manufacturers and have them pay for shares of superchargers going forward. A pbased in program with increasing cost to join as time goes by will be great for this process. It also alleviate tesla's position of being the monopoly on superchargers in the courtroom.

As a Machiavelli strategist though, I would announce a different program with a reverse time schedule. With Sign up being most expensive at the beginning and getting cheaper in the end. Then, with no warning, Tesla cancels the program citing lack of sign up. This way, everyone will wait on their feet and miss the boat while simultaneously giving the judges evidence that Tesla tried not to be a monopoly.

ROEV Association

 

[Drax7]

Significant portion of the production cycle

Very jealous, would have loved being involved in that.

 

[yesla]

Being a monopoly isn't the point of Tesla. Though I do like the first idea. Maybe the structure of the charging infrastructure could be remodeled to make it more attractive to other oem.

 

[Causalien]

Yeah. 2nd one is if it becomes personal. Either way, it secures a card for the potential future lawsuit against monopolizing fast charging.

 

[Hogfighter]

Yeah. 2nd one is if it becomes personal. Either way, it secures a card for the potential future lawsuit against monopolizing fast charging.

It's a chicken-or-egg problem for other manufacturers, to be sure. Who would build fast chargers without knowing what demand will be for their EV? And who would buy an EV from a manufacturer that has no ability for long distance travel?

Tesla should take their name and logo off of all superchargers and put on something like 'Electric Vehicle Supercharger', then have OEMs pay a fee to have their vehicle be compatible.

 

[Lessmog]

It's a chicken-or-egg problem for other manufacturers, to be sure. Who would build fast chargers without knowing what demand will be for their EV? And who would buy an EV from a manufacturer that has no ability for long distance travel?

Tesla should take their name and logo off of all superchargers and put on something like 'Electric Vehicle Supercharger', then have OEMs pay a fee to have their vehicle be compatible.

I don't see the need to strip off the logo. Tesla did invent and put them there. If other brand cars will one day be able to use them, their owners will be aware which connectors work - and maybe even have them mapped on the Big Screen? ;-) Anyway, those other brands buy a lot of goodwill by paying for compatibility with Tesla SuC - priceless, as the saying goes.

 

[jhm]

It occurred to me that the other auto manufacturer's EV programs are basically vaporware without a charging network of their own. I believe their management is probably thinking along the line of: well, there is always a backup plan of using Tesla's infrastructure if **** hit the fan. Or when push came to shove, they can sue for access.

So it might be a good idea to force sign up of other auto manufacturers and have them pay for shares of superchargers going forward. A pbased in program with increasing cost to join as time goes by will be great for this process. It also alleviate tesla's position of being the monopoly on superchargers in the courtroom.

As a Machiavelli strategist though, I would announce a different program with a reverse time schedule. With Sign up being most expensive at the beginning and getting cheaper in the end. Then, with no warning, Tesla cancels the program citing lack of sign up. This way, everyone will wait on their feet and miss the boat while simultaneously giving the judges evidence that Tesla tried not to be a monopoly.

I'm not sure there are any grounds for a monopoly. Tesla has created no barrier to entry, and has even open sourced all related patents. Both Nissan and BMW claim to have fast charging networks of their own. Any competitor could deploy their own using identicle technology. If anything, Tesla has created an environment where no monopoly is plausible. The real difficulty is that no competitor wants to give away free charging to its customers, but that's the standard Tesla has set.

 

[replicant]

Here's an easy solution:

Gas stations all across Russia have been ordered to adapt their facilities to provide chargers for the country's electric vehicles — which number just a few hundred in total.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree on Aug. 27 requiring the owners of gas stations to equip their facilities with chargers for electric cars by Nov. 1, 2016, according to a copy of the document published on the official government website last Monday.