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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Buddyroe
Active Member
This is one of the very things that hurts (or will hurt) Tesla's growth - everyone wanting to make the car 100% about the env. Look, not everyone has to be convinced about global warming for them to buy an EV. I had a friend over a few weeks ago who hates everything about the whole environment "religion" (as he calls it). He laughed at me for buying a Focus Electric (though I paid $13,500 for it brand new). I told him I wanted him to drive it and he agreed to. He was SHOCKED! He couldn't believe how good the car drove and how quick it was. Then I explained to him that a full charge costs me about 50 cents (in Georgia). He immediately asked if they made an small electric truck. He said he would go buy one TODAY. Even after I told him they didn't, he asked me to be on the look out for a Focus Electric for him to work.
So, you see, we need to stop trying to force anything about the environment on people in an effort to make them buy EVs. I mean, dang, even by your own admission, 50% of the population believes in it, yet, 99% of all cars are STILL ICE vehicles. So, my approach when I tell people about Tesla and EVs in general is to simply explain why, all things being equal, an electric car is MUCH better than an ICE car. In other words, without EVER considering the environment, people should still want to buy an EV. As long as Tesla, Musk, and Tesla's followers continue to use the climate angle to sell cars, 1/2 the population will simply say, "I don't even see the environmental wackos driving electric cars, why in God's earth would I want to drive one of the POS's just to help the environment?"
Climate change, the environment, pollution, etc, will NOT ever sell enough cars for Tesla to make it - as long as people THINK they are sacrificing or losing something by driving an EV. I mean, heck, truth be told, I know TONS of people that tell me they are environmentalists that say it's TOO much trouble to recycle ("when they make it easier, I'll do it."). So, do we REALLY expect people to make a [perceived] sacrifice in ANYWAY and drive an EV? No. But, if we (Tesla, Musk, and fans) sell the cars on their merit, and don't make it about a polarizing issue like climate change, the cars will sell - period.
sub
Active Member
Good points. I'm optimistic by nature, I was simply pointing out a potential hurdle that can slow things down. Wouldn't bother me a bit to be completely wrong on this. I am shocked about the recycling thing, once you have things setup it takes maybe 30 seconds extra a week for anyone to recycle.
are we going to hold $236 to close?
@Buddyroe
It will be quite remarkable how many people are in it for the environment once the Model 3 makes the environment an excuse to drive a cheaper nicer and more powerful car than they could afford in a gasoline burner.
There is no lack of public will. Nobody would pay extra for the opportunity to pollute for its own sake absent some other overriding incentive.
It will be quite remarkable how many people are in it for the environment once the Model 3 makes the environment an excuse to drive a cheaper nicer and more powerful car than they could afford in a gasoline burner.
There is no lack of public will. Nobody would pay extra for the opportunity to pollute for its own sake absent some other overriding incentive.
Just a few rolling coal nutjobs. I agree with the above, EV's need to be (and are) compelling without the environmental angle. I too have had the experience of giving right wing Texans rides and them saying they want one immediately if they could afford it. My parents are republican and got a leaf. The success of EV's will have good environmental side effects, rather than environmental benefits driving sales.
An update: The woman who spotted her VIN on this forum went to the Syosett, NY service center and provided an update on Facebook, "I guess the transport people just dropped it off right in front of the super charger and no one realized it for a while haha. I wasn't allowed to sit in it as it doesn't even have software yet and they didn't want any issues. I think from what he said that with final inspection and all that it will be after Christmas before we can pick it up. He was sad I saw it before it was perfect haha."
I just don't think they'd lie to an owner's face and tell them "after Christmas" only to surprise them again and say "sorry, just kidding, come pick up your car on the 21st."
And it is also already in New York State. Which means delivering 100-200 Sigs by the end of the year is not out of the question.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I agree, Buddy. You don't have to be a tree hugger to want a Tesla. The appeal is quite broad.
I suspect that much of climate change denial among ordinary people rests on the expectation that reducing carbon emissions would harm the economy, kill jobs, and reduce consumer choice. And so, it is not really about science, but about a government intrusion on freedoms and way of life. In other words, people reject this science because they hate the perceived policy implications.
But as people come to see that renewable energy and electric vehicles will actually save money, improve consumer choices and create exciting new jobs, I expect climate denial to subside. EVs will be better and more economical, no argument there. Solar panels on your home can save you money and give you energy independence from monopolistic utilities, no argument there. Batteries will increase reliability and reduce network costs of utilities, no argument there. The US solar industry has created more jobs that was in the coal industry and is bringing manufacturing back to the US, no argument there. The price of oil is low and soon no dependency on foreign oil will remain, little argument there. And on and on. Ultimately, oil, gas and coal will remain in the ground, not because of government dictates, but because we have better and more economically rewarding things to do capital and labor. In my analyses, I have striven to understand when the economics will reach critical thresholds. It will be hard for many to realize when these transitions will take place except when seen in the rear view mirror. Moreover, some will remain in denial even well after oil enters structural decline. But things will change. The economics will tilt in favor of clean technology. And political beliefs will shift.
I suspect that much of climate change denial among ordinary people rests on the expectation that reducing carbon emissions would harm the economy, kill jobs, and reduce consumer choice. And so, it is not really about science, but about a government intrusion on freedoms and way of life. In other words, people reject this science because they hate the perceived policy implications.
But as people come to see that renewable energy and electric vehicles will actually save money, improve consumer choices and create exciting new jobs, I expect climate denial to subside. EVs will be better and more economical, no argument there. Solar panels on your home can save you money and give you energy independence from monopolistic utilities, no argument there. Batteries will increase reliability and reduce network costs of utilities, no argument there. The US solar industry has created more jobs that was in the coal industry and is bringing manufacturing back to the US, no argument there. The price of oil is low and soon no dependency on foreign oil will remain, little argument there. And on and on. Ultimately, oil, gas and coal will remain in the ground, not because of government dictates, but because we have better and more economically rewarding things to do capital and labor. In my analyses, I have striven to understand when the economics will reach critical thresholds. It will be hard for many to realize when these transitions will take place except when seen in the rear view mirror. Moreover, some will remain in denial even well after oil enters structural decline. But things will change. The economics will tilt in favor of clean technology. And political beliefs will shift.
I wish I could get excited about these developments; a few (100 is still a few in a quarter with a projected 17k deliveries) Sigs showing signs of delivering sometime in the next two weeks. The fact remains is that they haven't delivered nor does it seem like they are delivering substantial numbers of X vehicles in 4Q. I think that's why we saw a reduction in 2015 delivery guidance down to a range back in a prior earnings release.
Full disclosure so I don't get accused: I'm a long shareholder (since 2011) with a Sig X on order.
Full disclosure so I don't get accused: I'm a long shareholder (since 2011) with a Sig X on order.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Joined the party today for a very small short term move.
Bought weeklies on the open dip as I expected this dip not to last long.
Nice in the green right now.
Looking to sell later today.
Lools like the tape is changing compared to some weeks ago.
Hope you are doing fine!
i have some calls i shoulda dumped yesterday, got a second chance to do it again when we broke 237 for solid profit, but didnt. the calls i picked up earlier today are in good shape. I have a habit of not keeping positions very long, so i would like to get out of those calls, maybe ill have a chance to make a move tomorrow. still up overall, just not as much as I was a few hours ago, obviously.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Oups, already sold half of the calls with 50% gain by an automatic order.
The remaining half is now at 30% gain.
Did I mention that I like automatic orders?
Helps me to set more rational targets and do better trades.
I am just too bullish and thus I tend to lose money by holding short term calls too long
Scott Ales
Member
Oups, already sold half of the calls with 50% gain by an automatic order.
The remaining half is now at 30% gain.
Did I mention that I like automatic orders?
Helps me to set more rational targets and do better trades.
I am just too bullish and thus I tend to lose money by holding short term calls too long
Okay, I was in a bank board meeting all afternoon and didn't secure any positions. Looks like I may have a chance to get in first thing in the am!
Fingers crossed!
mejojo
Active Member
Oups, already sold half of the calls with 50% gain by an automatic order.
The remaining half is now at 30% gain.
Did I mention that I like automatic orders?
Helps me to set more rational targets and do better trades.
I am just too bullish and thus I tend to lose money by holding short term calls too long
Just for the other side of this....an automatic order caused me to miss out on $60K SCTY gain (against a $4K investment - 50 * Jan '16 $40) on Tuesday.
(Fortunately, I got back in at the open on Wed. with 50 * Jan $50 and have reaped enough to salve the wound a bit......)
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