Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

Ok, please help.
The brave move would be to take advantage of the Max Pain dip today (ultra short term) down towards about $275 as we have options expiry day and get one or more calls for mid January expiry (short term) to ride em to I don't know where, right?
Thank's.

Update:
Oups, Max Pain already changed to $230, when was that?

 

[JRP3]

Also this wouldn't be the first ever occurrence of a Service Center making bogus statements.

Most likely explanation.

 

[theschnell]

Of course it has software. Maybe not the version they want to deliver it with? Also this wouldn't be the first ever occurrence of a Service Center making bogus statements.

Feels like a cover up to me of the fact they will be delivering them right before Christmas and don't want anyone to know. On the other hand, maybe they are putting the final touches on a software upgrade and don't want to deliver them until that's done.

 

[Scott Ales]

I must admit I have been a little uncomfortable with the next version of software update. With EM stating there will be limitations on AP and my car coming in 1-2 weeks my mind is wandering....

If there is a significantly reduced version of AP, will the entire market react negatively? I respect their decisions to maintain a solid safety record but I doubt the shorts would so accepting. Headlines with the word Lawsuit, Class Action, and likely a phrase or two such as Bait & Switch could be everywhere. This is holding me back a bit on my short term play this morning. I'm personally fine with whatever track they need to take with AP, but it seems like a significant liability for the next few weeks or month as it pertains to an investment play.

 

[Julian Cox]

I must admit I have been a little uncomfortable with the next version of software update. With EM stating there will be limitations on AP and my car coming in 1-2 weeks my mind is wandering....

Scott, with every respect to you as a customer, that's a personal concern, primarily I would say as a result of media making a meal out of Elon's comments. Autopilot functionality is not a market metric of any significance at this stage. Added to which the kind of measures that Elon would consider would be for example an AP interlock to ensure that there was in fact a driver in the driver's seat. There is no chance of a material loss of functionality. AP has been running hot for months and millions of miles and Tesla is aggressively documenting incidents averted by AP to demonstrate its value as a safety asset. Should that ever need to be defended they will have overwhelming evidence.

The kind of things to expect in 7.1 is for example tighter integration of AP with route planning to prevent AP following off ramp lane markings when the nav system knows that you expect to carry on in a straight line and vice versa if the nav says take the off ramp. In other words meaningful upgrades to functionality. Not downgrades.

 

[bonnie]

Feels like a cover up to me of the fact they will be delivering them right before Christmas and don't want anyone to know. On the other hand, maybe they are putting the final touches on a software upgrade and don't want to deliver them until that's done.

And yet my X is ready for delivery today (though I have personal commits that delay pickup until Sunday).

 

[Scott Ales]

Scott, with every respect to you as a customer, that's a personal concern, primarily I would say as a result of media making a meal out of Elon's comments. Autopilot functionality is not a market metric of any significance at this stage. Added to which the kind of measures that Elon would consider would be for example an AP interlock to ensure that there was in fact a driver in the driver's seat. There is no chance of a material loss of functionality. AP has been running hot for months and millions of miles and Tesla is aggressively documenting incidents averted by AP to demonstrate its value as a safety asset. Should that ever need to be defended they will have overwhelming evidence.

The kind of things to expect in 7.1 is for example tighter integration of AP with route planning to prevent AP following off ramp lane markings when the nav system knows that you expect to carry on in a straight line and vice versa if the nav says take the off ramp. In other words meaningful upgrades to functionality. Not downgrades.

My concern is the media subterfuge over the most minute detail that can be presented at any moment about Tesla. Thanks for the comments and insight, it's very helpful!

 

[Causalien]

And yet my X is ready for delivery today (though I have personal commits that delay pickup until Sunday).

We can all thank bonnie for clogging up deliveries by 2 days.

 

[Blip]

And yet my X is ready for delivery today (though I have personal commits that delay pickup until Sunday).

What? :scared: It is all about prioritizing...

 

[Krugerrand]

Anyone else find this strange, that they shipped a car without software, and it's going to take until after Xmas to get it ready? How did they do a QC at the factory on a car without software?

No. Perhaps it goes something like this: another software version is coming but to wait for it with vehicle at factory then means said vehicle will have a delay in shipping because it's - you know - the holiday season. So to ensure the vehicle gets delivered in 2015, Tesla ships it to the SC where it can then get the latest software version for its customer as soon as that comes down the pipe and still be delivered this year.

- - - Updated - - -

What? :scared: It is all about prioritizing...

She has prioritized: Getting her nails and hair done trumps the Model X. This is reasonable. No? :tongue:

 

[Julian Cox]

My concern is the media subterfuge over the most minute detail that can be presented at any moment about Tesla. Thanks for the comments and insight, it's very helpful!

Welcome - and yes, media is a double edged sword. My opinion about what moves the market right now is Model X ramp, Q4 delivery totals, cash flows (and the fact that the shorts are spectacularly wrong on all three) and Tesla Energy (the fact that the shorts have no clue what is about to hit them on that score).

No matter what the content of 7.1 it will barely move the needle because there is no short thesis about 7.1 to be destroyed. If it is spectacular and it probably is (hailing on private land for example), the only possible effect on Model X demand is to add some months a customer waiting line that is already 9 or 10 months long and Tesla will most likely be on firmware 7.4 if not 8.0 before customer waiting times are brought down to a month or two.

Bonnie: "And yet my X is ready for delivery today (though I have personal commits that delay pickup until Sunday)."

See NASDAQ TSLA for market reaction.

P.S. Bonnie, congrats.

 

[Fast Laner]

Perhaps the right person to hand over the keys to her (Bonnie's) X isn't around 'til sunday :smile:.

 

[Bobbyducati]

Congrats to Bonnie, the long wait is (almost) over.

Picked up some "hail-Mary" calls, $280 jans. super low risk, high reward. Hopefully we see some positive action in the next week or so.

 

[theschnell]

And yet my X is ready for delivery today (though I have personal commits that delay pickup until Sunday).

Congrats! Your belief in Tesla's ability to execute, and your longstanding patience during this long wait are about to be rewarded.

Might as well make them wait an extra few days to deliver after the years they have kept you waiting. :wink:

 

[MitchJi]

Sold my remaining Mar 230's 22.90
Replaced with Mar 280's 5.30

With the small amount of cash in the account I got 5:1 (re-risked ).

Thanks to Bonnie, (and enjoy your MX) for letting us know!

Thanks Scott for the inspiration!

 

[ggr]

She has prioritized: Getting her nails and hair done trumps the Model X. This is reasonable. No? :tongue:

Other people would get into big trouble for saying this. But you, I'll forgive.

 

[theschnell]

My concern is the media subterfuge over the most minute detail that can be presented at any moment about Tesla. Thanks for the comments and insight, it's very helpful!

Those minute details don't move the market that much IMO, whether positive or negative. The market is not as obsessed with TSLA as you and I are. It takes quite a bit of substantive news to move the market much in either direction, it seems to me.

 

[Krugerrand]

Other people would get into big trouble for saying this. But you, I'll forgive.

You're the best! (You'd be even better, though, if you threw me some positive rep for yanking Bonnie's chain.)

 

[austinEV]

I must admit I have been a little uncomfortable with the next version of software update. With EM stating there will be limitations on AP and my car coming in 1-2 weeks my mind is wandering....

If there is a significantly reduced version of AP, will the entire market react negatively? I respect their decisions to maintain a solid safety record but I doubt the shorts would so accepting. Headlines with the word Lawsuit, Class Action, and likely a phrase or two such as Bait & Switch could be everywhere. This is holding me back a bit on my short term play this morning. I'm personally fine with whatever track they need to take with AP, but it seems like a significant liability for the next few weeks or month as it pertains to an investment play.

Product events never affect the stock price. Feature changes, quality changes, price changes, anything that is big to an owner or potential buyer the market doesn't care about. They care about financials, volume, deliveries, upgrades/downgrades. Even the model X deliveries, long expected, will probably not move the stock. A lot of investors probably think it already happened.

- - - Updated - - -

Those minute details don't move the market that much IMO, whether positive or negative. The market is not as obsessed with TSLA as you and I are. It takes quite a bit of substantive news to move the market much in either direction, it seems to me.

Yeah this. We freak out over seat gate and the market could not care one tiny bit.

 

[Scott Ales]

Sold my remaining Mar 230's 22.90
Replaced with Mar 280's 5.30

With the small amount of cash in the account I got 5:1 (re-risked ).

Thanks to Bonnie, (and enjoy your MX) for letting us know!

Thanks Scott for the inspiration!

Wound myself up in just a week. It was just a few days ago I thought I wouldn't be playing the short term game for a while. Taking a bit more managed approach this morning. Comfy so far.

Good luck!