Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[mmd]

I think that we probably need to wait until the numbers are announced in January.

So what are people expecting on X deliveries for this quarter, now that we are almost near the end? Looking at the missing bolt in Bonnie's X (spotted by few in the pictures she posted), I suspect these still have a significant part hand assembled, and so I'm only expecting a few hundred X delivered.

And, Congrats SpaceX on a truly awesome launch!

 

[Drax7]

This space X achievement is close to the holy grail in rocketry,
Elons ventures will gain massive respect.

Lutz, chanos, santos et al, should take notice before they make flippant
Comments regarding musk and tesla. Things are about to get very
interesting .

 

[FredLambert]

Landing the first stage is awesome, but the holy grail is reusing it successfully.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Don't expect much throughout the year. Not entirely sure what your trading experience is with the markets but low volume for the rest of the year... Unless something bananas happens.

Personally I expect to see the bots playing ping pong during christmas holiday. Low volume flat trading till we see the next catalyst. As the stock is overvalued unfortunately we might see a small and slow drift downwards a bit from time to time. Some resistance right above the current SP. I could imagine a lot of people have a wait and see approach during the next days and the stock is just only waiting for the first big player to think about a possible positive Q4 delivery estimate published in two weeks prior to the Q4 ER some time later next year.

 

[Bobbyducati]

another disappointing day. im having a hard time figuring out this movement today.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Cup and Handle Alert for both Tesla and SolarCity.

Also, pure speculation, however the partnership between Ford and Google could easily also involve Tesla. The article that quoted someone from Ford included that other partners are involved. It would make a lot of sense. The media is obsessed with the idea that all other automobile manufacturers are going to try to kill Tesla. I think it's far more likely that sane automobile manufacturers, such as Ford, might create a shell company, such as Faraday Future, to make sure Ford isn't responsible if the product from a very expensive partnership doesn't work as expected. Ford was very clear the partnership between Google, Ford, and others (who won't be revealed until January) was being done via a shell company, to shield Ford from any liability.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-ford-released-patents-tesla-partnership-james-hayes

Perhaps Tesla has a partnership in the works and its ADAS features are being developed by outside developers

Teslas Autonomous Car Claims More Hype Than Reality | Lux Populi

 

[Curt Renz]

another disappointing day. im having a hard time figuring out this movement today.

Since Christmas is Friday, weekly options will expire at the end of the shortened session on Thursday. Max Pain for option buyers is currently the same $230 as last week. Amid thin holiday week trading volume, manipulators may find it relatively easy to keep the price near Max Pain.

It would likely require some news from Tesla to boost the share price this week. Obviously this week Elon Musk has been focused on SpaceX. I expect he'll be spending time with his sons during Christmas weekend. We really shouldn't expect much news until Tesla reports quarterly sales around January 4. Traders holding options may just watch them wither as the year winds down, while long term shareholders see little price movement with their attention diverted toward the holidays.

 

[schonelucht]

So what are people expecting on X deliveries for this quarter, now that we are almost near the end? Looking at the missing bolt in Bonnie's X (spotted by few in the pictures she posted), I suspect these still have a significant part hand assembled, and so I'm only expecting a few hundred X delivered.

I agree, that missing bolt does not look very good. But on the other hand vin 6xx has a firm delivery date for 2015. Really hard to say. I am betting around 1 EDS (=100 cars)

 

[Scott Ales]

I agree, that missing bolt does not look very good. But on the other hand vin 6xx has a firm delivery date for 2015. Really hard to say. I am betting around 1 EDS (=100 cars)

FWIW

I called my SC to check on the delivery of our MS which is in transit. She commented they had a delivery scheduled every hour on the hour today. I really think they are going to crush the Q4 numbers.

 

[Cattledog]

FWIW

I called my SC to check on the delivery of our MS which is in transit. She commented they had a delivery scheduled every hour on the hour today. I really think they are going to crush the Q4 numbers.

Agree - I think they'll be closer to the high end of the guidance vs. low end. It would be crazy if they exceeded the high end. Just as important will be a simple sentence about, "We are now producing 1,XXX cars per week". I think if the production number entering 2016 is north of 1,600, off to the races.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

another disappointing day. im having a hard time figuring out this movement today.

I agree, that missing bolt does not look very good. But on the other hand vin 6xx has a firm delivery date for 2015. Really hard to say. I am betting around 1 EDS (=100 cars)

I believe that movement will appear fairly random in the 230 range until there is some quantifiable news (like delivery numbers for the quarter, Model X deliveries, weekly run rate). While I am happy to see that Signature Series Model X have finally started delivery, I don't expect Model X to play any significant role in boosting the Q4 numbers. There just does not seem to be much activity in the Model X forum concerning deliveries beyond the first 2 Sigs.

I would not bet on a Q4 beat, although it would be nice. I am not expecting any major price movements until at least Q1 '16.

 

[McMuggets]

Just got this emailed to me. Faraday Future's potential car shape? See the end of the vid: Faraday Future: What if? - YouTube

Any comments on what this could mean for Tesla?

 

[MikeC]

Just got this emailed to me. Faraday Future's potential car shape? See the end of the vid: Faraday Future: What if? - YouTube

Any comments on what this could mean for Tesla?

From the YouTube video description: "What if there was an electric car that not only helped preserve the environment — it actually made us look forward to the daily commute?"

Let's see, if only there were one of those...well, I suppose a company called Faraday Future would come along and try to copy it and act like they were the first to think of it.

 

[Krugerrand]

Any comments on what this could mean for Tesla?

Means nothing.

 

[Scott Ales]

From the YouTube video description: "What if there was an electric car that not only helped preserve the environment — it actually made us look forward to the daily commute?"

Let's see, if only there were one of those...well, I suppose a company called Faraday Future would come along and copy it and act like they were the first to think of it.

Does anyone remember seeing marketing materials like this for Tesla? I don't. Will Tesla be the only large cap company to not market their products traditionally? That says something.

 

[madodel]

Just got this emailed to me. Faraday Future's potential car shape? See the end of the vid: Faraday Future: What if? - YouTube

Any comments on what this could mean for Tesla?

They are good at smoke and allusion.

 

[Cattledog]

I believe that movement will appear fairly random in the 230 range until there is some quantifiable news (like delivery numbers for the quarter, Model X deliveries, weekly run rate). While I am happy to see that Signature Series Model X have finally started delivery, I don't expect Model X to play any significant role in boosting the Q4 numbers. There just does not seem to be much activity in the Model X forum concerning deliveries beyond the first 2 Sigs.

I would not bet on a Q4 beat, although it would be nice. I am not expecting any major price movements until at least Q1 '16.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a beat, >51,000 deliveries, based on the following two technical indicators (which don't at all look like the charts you'd see from a company that wasn't going to beat).
Instagram
Instagram

 

[sub]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a beat, >51,000 deliveries, based on the following two technical indicators (which don't at all look like the charts you'd see from a company that wasn't going to beat).
Instagram
Instagram

Yeah, they don't look too concerned. But did you hear there was a bolt missing from Bonnie's rear diffuser? Not sure Tesla will survive that scandal.

 

[Zaxxon]

I don't disagree with 51k as a decent guess, but that's not a beat. It's square in the middle of the 50k-52k guidance.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

From the YouTube video description: "What if there was an electric car that not only helped preserve the environment — it actually made us look forward to the daily commute?"

Let's see, if only there were one of those...well, I suppose a company called Faraday Future would come along and try to copy it and act like they were the first to think of it.

I watched the video and 2 things stood out to me: (1) The line about "back seat being the new front seat" and (2) Using rather than owning a car. I interpreted this to mean that FF's direction is about turning cars into self-driving rolling living rooms that can be rented on as-needed basis. The focus is not so much on people who like to drive, but on people who want comfort and least hassle.

I don't know how well this will work in the short term. Yes, it is true that cars are annoyingly expensive to purchase, but Americans seem to want their own car that they can customize, keep stuff in, and generally call their own piece of turf. The sharing stuff may work well in a city where owning a car is a hassle rather than a daily necessity, but this model doesn't work well in the suburbs and beyond.

The silhouette at the end reminded me of a Model X. In the short term, I would say 0 impact on TSLA.