Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Cattledog]

OK ladies and gents, anyone harboring a guess at the local bottom number and whether it's today or in the next several? If someone wanted to take some risk on some calls, a sense for when fear hits apex and share price hits nadir would be great. I am dumb enought to risk a small amount of $ and also dumb enough to not know if we're looking at 218, 220, 210, today, tomorrow. One of you has that lithium-ion crystal ball from the last TMC Connect, right?

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WOW!! Now that's more like it!

I wish they would have waited 20 more minutes...

 

[jbdoom]

Tesla Motors: Color on Quarter (230.43)5/7/2015, 9:18:04 AM ET

• FBR Capital notes Tesla Motors reported 1Q15 results with shipment volumes in line with the preannouncement, while margins benefited from a richer shipment mix in the quarter. Model S shipment guidance for Q2 came in below Street expectations, and they would look to get more details on the impact on Model S demand from the recent launch of the 70D AWD version. Management indicated that the launch of the energy storage product has gotten off to a solid start, though they believe it too early to estimate sustainable demand levels. Overall, they continue to remain cautious on 2015/2016 delivery targets, and they believe that the current valuation is pricing in meaningful growth in Model S deliveries and a successful launch of both the Model X and the Model 3; Market Perform.
• Northland notes TSLA is executing in line with our expectations for growth through the release of the Model X and Model 3 and diversifying its revenue stream by entering the stationary power market; Outperform
• Morgn Stanley and CLSA suggested a capital raise may be necessary following Q1 cash burn
• Deutsche Bank remains positive
• BoA/Merrill Remains cautious with a $65 tgt
• TSLA was higher in teh after hours but is now down almost 5% premarket

just popped up on my briefings. surprising since briefing usually reports stuff late..

 

[pGo]

Their gross profit on revenues was $260 million in Q1. Even if you factor in cost of sales & admin at $195m, they still made $65m. How much they spend on R&D is up to them. It`s not like they can`t pay the bills if they spend all of that 1.5B. They have a 26-28% gross margin on their main product (GAAP vs. non GAAP as I recall) and record sales each quarter.

Last year Q1, Tesla spent $81M on R&D. Last Q, they spent $167M. I don't think there is any slowing down there as if they do, it has consequence of either late GF start or Model 3 delay. To be honest, cash from business to spend won't come as fast. That's why they claim to be positive only in Q4.

$1.5B in hand.
$1.2B to be spent from here on.

Q4 to be cash flow positive - how positive, yet to see.

Tesla is walking on fine line come Q3 with about $600M in bank with an unknown X ramp.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Aren't there going to be the same record number of shorts selling off today? I can't imagine they were happy with that CC.

 

[Vger]

Furthermore, Jonas says that cash outlays were above his (arbitrary) estimates. FYI Jonas, when you build a factory, the *vast* majority of costs are front loaded. Why he would automatically assume that the same quarterly cash outflow rate would remain constant, especially given increased cashflow from operations as the lines ramp up production significantly for Model S and X, is beyond me. They aren't buying another Gigafactory every quarter, Adam!

As I sort of predicted last night, the numbers are straining the vision-challenged simple-minded in the Wall Street community. These guys can only extrapolate with rulers. They do not understand more than one move ahead on the chess board.

And frankly, Jonas and his bosses are trying to force Tesla into a dilutive cash raise, when Ahuja is completely confident it is unnecessary. That is the agenda; it is painfully obvious!

 

[mrdoubleb]

OK ladies and gents, anyone harboring a guess at the local bottom number and whether it's today or in the next several? If someone wanted to take some risk on some calls, a sense for when fear hits apex and share price hits nadir would be great. I am dumb enought to risk a small amount of $ and also dumb enough to not know if we're looking at 218, 220, 210, today, tomorrow. One of you has that lithium-ion crystal ball from the last TMC Connect, right?

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I wish they would have waited 20 more minutes...

I am in the same boat Catteldog! keep refreshing my account if my money arrived so I can place the order. Come on now! My F5 can only take so much twice within 24 hours!

 

[FluxCap]

Some people are going to grab some cheap TSLA shares at the open, that's for sure. Amazing buy and hold opportunity here.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This is the juncture where we start to see the general public enter the stock. Pent up demand. While I don't like the down open, never been more positive about the stock.

 

[vgrinshpun]

As I sort of predicted last night, the numbers are straining the vision-challenged simple-minded in the Wall Street community. These guys can only extrapolate with rulers. They do not understand more than one move ahead on the chess board.

And frankly, Jonas and his bosses are trying to force Tesla into a dilutive cash raise, when Ahuja is completely confident it is unnecessary. That is the agenda; it is painfully obvious!

I also suspect some dirty play on the part of AJ/MS. If he had such a concern about cash at hand, why did he not asked the question?? That is what ERs, ostensibly, are for??

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Some people are going to grab some cheap TSLA shares at the open, that's for sure. Amazing buy and hold opportunity here.

Everyone busy buying right now? No posts for 10 minutes, haha. I got a Sept $225 put written. Was thinking about June but didn't want to be too risky

 

[ev-enthusiast]

What is suddenly up with SP?

 

[FluxCap]

And just like that, back at the 200SMA. Someone made nice money buying those cheap shares in premarket this morning. Kudos to those of you who snagged them.

Edit: ALL market indices moving firmly into the green, so macro panic (for now) is easing.

 

[StephenM]

aaaaaand, we are now positive for the first time today :smile:

 

[Blip]

Green!

 

[ZenMan]

Can't believe it. We are green!

 

[ggr]

Last year Q1, Tesla spent $81M on R&D. Last Q, they spent $167M. I don't think there is any slowing down there as if they do, it has consequence of either late GF start or Model 3 delay. To be honest, cash from business to spend won't come as fast. That's why they claim to be positive only in Q4.

$1.5B in hand.
$1.2B to be spent from here on.

Q4 to be cash flow positive - how positive, yet to see.

Tesla is walking on fine line come Q3 with about $600M in bank with an unknown X ramp.

Everyone (including Jonas apparently) appears to have forgotten all those self-funded leases, which were a way to "park the cash and earn more on it than anyone else would give us" (paraphrased from a previous earnings report). Yes, on the face of it you might think they could run out of cash, but they can on-sell those leases at any time. Any bank, even Morgan Stanley, would jump at them.

 

[eloder]

And we're green!

Boy, those FUD articles are going to look pretty foolish with "Tesla shares are down in trading this morning as losses catastrophically skyrocket" headlines.

 

[mejojo]

I graabbed a bunch of May15 220 for $8....looking good already.

 

[mmccord]

And just like that, back at the 200SMA. Someone made nice money buying those cheap shares in premarket this morning. Kudos to those of you who snagged them.

Edit: ALL market indices moving firmly into the green, so macro panic (for now) is easing.

I picked up a few dozen @ 220.

Small consolation for being down ~10k on my June options @ open. Looks like half of that has come back in the first 15 minutes though.

 

[maoing]

Ya, I did. Grab more @ 219.2 pre market. Glad I woke up early today