Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ludicrousspeed]

He said the Design Studio would go live by the end of the month (August), so based off Tesla time we would be very lucky to see it up by the end of next week. This will almost certainly be a positive catalyst because it reduces some of the fears concerning Model X and will most likely introduce new and unannounced features to the public. I'm very excited to see what these rear seats are all about and I'm sure there are also some other cool features currently under wraps.

 

[austinEV]

As far as I know almost all of the german car manufacturers are currently working in projects with Mobileye.
This is usually done in projects that employ workers from several different companies like Mobileye, Bosch and others.
As far as I know the small and Israel based company Mobileye is renowned for their worldwide leading tech in driving automation.
They do not talk too much about their work, but they get pretty good results with their tech, that's why so many companies want to work with them.

I keep thinking that the industry is savvy about this. If they all choose MBLY there is herd immunity from the inevitable lawsuits. If they all get in the same boat they will all defend one another and MBLY. If everyone chooses MBLY *except* for one maker, say Mazda, and Mazda has an event leading to death or injury the plaintiffs would be able to claim that Mazda was using unusual/untried tech. It pays to stick with the herd, and MBLY will benefit. (no position in MBLY but kicking myself).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I keep thinking that the industry is savvy about this. If they all choose MBLY there is herd immunity from the inevitable lawsuits. If they all get in the same boat they will all defend one another and MBLY. If everyone chooses MBLY *except* for one maker, say Mazda, and Mazda has an event leading to death or injury the plaintiffs would be able to claim that Mazda was using unusual/untried tech. It pays to stick with the herd, and MBLY will benefit. (no position in MBLY but kicking myself).

Exactly this.

I heard of Mobileye for the first time here at TMC.
Then I did a bit of research and have seen that it is a very small company (almost like a start up) and that they have their HQ in Israel.
I thought that every day work might be a bit complicated in SW-projects with the company being in Israel.
But exactly this happened and almost all car companies in Germany work with Mobileye at least as a minor project partner.
Did not see this coming.

Then I think how can the different brands distinguish one from each other while they are all working together with the same suppliers?
A bit strange
I think it is like you mentioned, stick with the herd.
Innovate a bit, but not too much.
This might work with autonomos driving tech e.g. Mobileye.
I still have the impression that it does not work with EV-driving tech for a couple of well known reasons.

 

[Lessmog]

How many mfs of auto-transmissions, world-wide? Besides the Borg Warner.
Car electrics? Well, Bosch ... Maréchal? Whazzat British, yeah, Lucas?
Glass and seats maybe a few more.

Soon (Tesla-Time (R) ) how many battery mfs?

 

[hobbes]

Our count of Model S registrations for July (1st month of Q3) in the EU Market Situation and Outlook thread came up with a total of 1182 cars. That´s more than in May (2nd month of Q2, 1050). Also, this plot might be interesting for some people who just live in the Short-Term thread, too:

Because of some people seeming unsure of demand for the Model S (especially after the referral program came out) I made a plot of the last two years to reassure myself, maybe it is interesting for others, too. I find it more intuitive to look at a graphical visualization rather than just numbers. Because our wiki table doesn´t go far enough back, I took all the numbers (except for July 2015 which is from our wiki) from EV Sales: Europe . Also added a 3 month simple moving average to get rid of the jitter from end-of-quarter-pushes.

Does not look like demand is slowing at least for Europe:

View attachment 90472

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Our count of Model S registrations for July (1st month of Q3) in the EU Market Situation and Outlook thread came up with a total of 1182 cars. That´s more than in May (2nd month of Q2, 1050).

Thank's a lot for your work on the european delivery numbers Hobbes and partners

As far as I can see it makes most sense to compare monthly delivery numbers respective to their position in each quarter.
By comparing each first month in a quarter this year, it looks like TM is on track to 50% growth rate in Europe.
The corresponding monthly sales figures for January, April, July are: 522, 802, 1182;

 

[Bgarret]

Thank's a lot for your work on the european delivery numbers Hobbes and partners

As far as I can see it makes most sense to compare monthly delivery numbers respective to their position in each quarter.
By comparing each first month in a quarter this year, it looks like TM is on track to 50% growth rate in Europe.
The corresponding monthly sales figures for January, April, July are: 522, 802, 1182;

I don't think that's quite right. Since Tesla started "evening out" deliveries there is a much smaller ramp from the first to the last month of the quarter. Demand has been increasing from quarter to quarter, but moderately, not at a 50% level.

 

[hobbes]

I don't think that's quite right. Since Tesla started "evening out" deliveries there is a much smaller ramp from the first to the last month of the quarter. Demand has been increasing from quarter to quarter, but moderately, not at a 50% level.

O.k., was going to post this not here but just over at the EU thread, but since you bring up the topic - I think the data is compatible with 50% YoY growth:
Added a curve for the 50% YoY growth to the plot to see how it fits:

The fine print: The green line is an exponential curve with the factor in the exponent calculated to match the 50% YoY growth, while the scaling factor is fitted to the data.

 

[Thumper]

I think the charging snake fits well with a Transportation-as -service-model. Either the snake or inductive is necessary for an autonomous vehicle and the added efficiency, over inductive, is pure profit.

 

[Noble Ninja]

GS and MS are jointly underwriting this offering.

From the filing document at http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312515290590/d84889d424b5.htm

The underwriters expect to deliver the shares of common stock against payment in New York, New York on or about August 19, 2015.

Godman, Sachs & Co.		Morgan Stanley		J.P. Morgan		Deutsche Bank Securities
BofA Merrill Lynch		Wells Fargo Securities

From the filing: "To the extent that the underwriters sell more than 2,694,934 shares of common stock, the underwriters have the option to purchase up to an additional 404,239 shares from us at the offering price less the underwriting discount."

Offering price - expenses:

Offering price		$	242.00			$	652,174,028
Underwriting discount (1)		$	3.5890			$	9,672,118
Proceeds, before offering expenses, to Tesla		$	238.4110			$	642,501,910

So the underwriters essentially have a call option with a strike price of $238.41!!! So does this mean the underwriters now have a major incentive to drive the price as high as possible? At the bare minimum, they will want it to stay above $238.411.

Also it might seem the underwriter's call option would motivate analysts at GS and MS not to talk the stock down. In law, there is supposed to be a wall of separation between the traders and analysts at GS and MS. So in principle, the analysts are independent. Even so, it's probably prudent for these analysts not to say anything good or bad while this call is in play.

I'm not going to complain about that upgrade because I loaded up at 233. However, what a corrupt and predictable bunch these lot are. If there is a finer example of how they game the system I haven't seen it.

Talk the company down for a few months. Participate in a public offering. Wait for the offering to commence. Release a hyped up report with a huge raised PT. Cash in your options and profit.

What filth. They don't even bother to hide it.

And it's blackmail: the company can't say anything either. "So you want us to retract our PT and kill your value?"

This is what we are fighting against when taking short term positions. In the long run their idiotic opinions don't really matter.

We are on the positive side of market manipulation today and my stock/option positions will all be very happy. It really is such a big game that all of the retail investors are swept one way or another with little chance of influencing the direction.

Pretty much sums up and explains the last week and a half of downtrend from FUD fear-mongering about lowered guidance and then a boost by obvious underwriters who are only trying to cash in. I'm not surprised by Morgan Stanley, as they along with Goldman Sach are some of the top manipulators of the market, IMO.

 

[Lump]

Doug Field recently joined the executive team.
Tesla Motors - Initial Statement of Beneficial Ownership

 

[mdemetri]

Pretty much sums up and explains the last week and a half of downtrend from FUD fear-mongering about lowered guidance and then a boost by obvious underwriters who are only trying to cash in. I'm not surprised by Morgan Stanley, as they along with Goldman Sach are some of the top manipulators of the market, IMO.

Yup. What happened is clear as day. I just wish we had figured this out Friday (or earlier) instead of over the weekend, so I could have bought some calls/sell some puts.

Updated:

The question now is where do we do from here? When will the option be exercised and thereby remove the incentive the underwriters have to drive the stock higher. Are they satisfied with todays gain? My speculation is no. I bet they are waiting for the X reveal/deliveries just like the rest of us and will support the stock until then and once revealed, exercise the options and then start to talk the stock down again about the ramp etc. That is what my gut tells me, even though it is rather conspiratorial.

 

[jhm]

Yup. What happened is clear as day. I just wish we had figured this out Friday (or earlier) instead of over the weekend, so I could have bought some calls/sell some puts.

Updated:

The question now is where do we do from here? When will the option be exercised and thereby remove the incentive the underwriters have to drive the stock higher. Are they satisfied with todays gain? My speculation is no. I bet they are waiting for the X reveal/deliveries just like the rest of us and will support the stock until then and once revealed, exercise the options and then start to talk the stock down again about the ramp etc. That is what my gut tells me, even though it is rather conspiratorial.

The underwriters only had 30 days on their option. I suspect that the Model X deliveries will happen after that period, or at least the underwriters would not have insider information otherwise. So I think they would have closed out their position already. Hard to know for sure.

On a positive note, if they have already exercised their options, then net proceeds to Tesla should be close to $750M. The cash Tesla gets is really the most important outcome in this whole arrangement.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Doug Field recently joined the executive team.
Tesla Motors - Initial Statement of Beneficial Ownership

To avoid confusion, Doug Field was recently given an internal promotion (it appears) or at a minimum a big award of stock; he's been responsible for new vehicle development since Oct. 2013.

 

[vgrinshpun]

With the seemingly justifiable suspicion and focus on timing of the Adam Jonas' note which was so vividly displayed over the last few pages of posts, I would like to warn against being stuck in righteous indignation at the imperfect way market works.

After reading through the AJ note, I have to say that his modeling of the Tesla Mobility business was quite thorough, with very conservative assumptions. Once the initial leap of assuming that Tesla Moblility is actually in the works is made, the note is top notch in quality and depth of the underlying research. The thing to remember is that Tesla is purpose driven company, and Tesla Mobility is a strikingly good fit for Tesla's goal of catalyzing societal shift to the sustainable transportation. It is not only excellent way to generate very healthy and dependable profit, but also will allow Tesla to diversify their portfolio of businesses, and de-risk continuing scaling up of the battery production.

As far as the short-term stock movement, I think that we might close the gap tomorrow to $260+, and then move sideways until the next catalyst, presumably MX related...

 

[Bgarret]

O.k., was going to post this not here but just over at the EU thread, but since you bring up the topic - I think the data is compatible with 50% YoY growth:
Added a curve for the 50% YoY growth to the plot to see how it fits:

View attachment 90809

The fine print: The green line is an exponential curve with the factor in the exponent calculated to match the 50% YoY growth, while the scaling factor is fitted to the data.

Sorry Hobbes, I misspoke. What I was trying to say is that looking at the first month of Q1, Q2, Q3 may lead you to 50% growth in 2015, you need to factor in the the drop in 3rd month deliveries because of a de-emphasis in the end of quarter rush. There is substantial growth in orders and deliverieries YOY in Europe, but 2015 quarterly numbers need to be understood within the context of how Tesla is now managing deliveries - which I thing is extremely healthy.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Just spotted a grey Model X in the wild which appears to be a production model. Only some plastic white wrapping that hides a few details. I believe this is the first one seen in a color other than white or black.

Hmm, feels like the unveil event/first deliveries are imminent. :smile:

More pics posted in the Model X Mule Sightings thread:

Model X Mule Sightings - Page 231

 

[Bobbyducati]

Just spotted a grey Model X in the wild which appears to be a production model. Only some plastic white wrapping that hides a few details. I believe this is the first one seen in a color other than white or black.

Hmm, feels like the unveil event/first deliveries are imminent. :smile:

View attachment 90837

More pics posted in the Model X Mule Sightings thread:

Model X Mule Sightings - Page 231

holy moly, is it finally here???

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I read at twitter that "there are currently no shares to short at Scottrade"?
What does that mean?
Trading shares and options in Germany is quite a bit different compared to the US.
Thank's in advance!

 

[SuryaDham]

I read at twitter that "there are currently no shares to short at Scottrade"?
What does that mean?
Trading shares and options in Germany is quite a bit different compared to the US.

In order to short sell shares you need to borrow them from someone, usually a customer of the same brokerage.
The above quote simply means that no scottrade-costomer wants to lend their TSLA-shares, or those who are interested in lending already did so. They receive interest for lending their shares (if fully paid and not bought on margin).
It doesn't say anything about the customers of other brokerage-firms.
Only if all or most brokerage-firms cannot locate any more shares to be sold short, then it means short interest is at its absolute possible maximum and a short covering rally would probably be imminent...